ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Air Force Met]

AFM...what is your thinking right now regarding the high? I understand the trend is to move it west...but my local met is concerned that the trough coming down is not going to be strong enought to erode the high. What is your take?

I think the trof will dig more than forecasted..which should keep the high from progressing far to the east. Frankly...it is a matter of timing. How far west does Gustav get before it moves NW...and when does that occur. If he was moving at 10 kts and had been for the last 24 hours...we would see an NHC track near the TX/LA coast now. If he hadn't jogged SW last night...NOLA would still be under the gun on the track (it still is...don't get me wrong). Every little move right now will impact the landfall.

My best guess is still central LA...possibly western LA near LCH. I would not be shocked to see it hit extreme SE TX (that assumes a slower ridge and a faster forward motion tomorrow)...and I would not be shocked to see it hit MS (that assumes a more progressive ridge and a slow track tomorrow).

[Stormcenter]

AFM...what is your thinking right now regarding the high? I understand the trend is to move it west...but my local met is concerned that the trough coming down is not going to be strong enought to erode the high. What is your take?

I think the trof will dig more than forecasted..which should keep the high from progressing far to the east. Frankly...it is a matter of timing. How far west does Gustav get before it moves NW...and when does that occur. If he was moving at 10 kts and had been for the last 24 hours...we would see an NHC track near the TX/LA coast now. If he hadn't jogged SW last night...NOLA would still be under the gun on the track (it still is...don't get me wrong). Every little move right now will impact the landfall.

My best guess is still central LA...possibly western LA near LCH. I would not be shocked to see it hit extreme SE TX (that assumes a slower ridge and a faster forward motion tomorrow)...and I would not be shocked to see it hit MS (that assumes a more progressive ridge and a slow track tomorrow).

It's still a crap shoot. IMO There are just way too many variables out there right now and in the future.

[Ivanhater]

00z HWRF shifts well east..NO 96 HOURS...post graphic when becomes available

[dwg71]

interesting, lets see if the GFDL swaps places with it and says Lake Charles, LA

[attallaman]

AFM...what is your thinking right now regarding the high? I understand the trend is to move it west...but my local met is concerned that the trough coming down is not going to be strong enought to erode the high. What is your take?

I think the trof will dig more than forecasted..which should keep the high from progressing far to the east. Frankly...it is a matter of timing. How far west does Gustav get before it moves NW...and when does that occur. If he was moving at 10 kts and had been for the last 24 hours...we would see an NHC track near the TX/LA coast now. If he hadn't jogged SW last night...NOLA would still be under the gun on the track (it still is...don't get me wrong). Every little move right now will impact the landfall.

My best guess is still central LA...possibly western LA near LCH. I would not be shocked to see it hit extreme SE TX (that assumes a slower ridge and a faster forward motion tomorrow)...and I would not be shocked to see it hit MS (that assumes a more progressive ridge and a slow track tomorrow).

AFM:

What kind of weather could I expect to receive here in Biloxi if Gustav made a landfall in C/LA as a CAT 3?

[Stratosphere747]

00z HWRF shifts well east..NO 96 HOURS...post graphic when becomes available

Just post the numerical guidance if you have it...

Curious to see a few things.

[Air Force Met]

What kind of weather could I expect to receive here in Biloxi if Gustav made a landfall in C/LA as a CAT 3?

Some squalls with an occasional TS force gust in the heavier squalls.

[Ivanhater]

Dont have it yet storm,,.

GFDL still Mississippi....the big ones GFS HWRF AND GFDL now clustered

[Wx_Warrior]

So HWRF (0z) is nola?

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[CYCLONE MIKE]

More than likely when the next full NHC update comes out they will probably take these shifts into consideration and shift the track back east around 50-60 miles or around 90.5 or so west again with a gradual bend towards the west.

[dwg71]

ivan said east of nola

saw graphic... just east.

[Jason_B]

There is no reason to shift the official track based on models that are jumping east and west all day, and besides the storm itself is hardly moving. Their track right now is fine.

[HouTXmetro]

I"m getting Dizzy with all these Flip Flops. Good thing New Orleans has been getting prepared. Consensus is back over New Oleans tonight.

[Scorpion]

[Wx_Warrior]

GFDL running now...Also EURO @ 2am...

[dwg71]

There is no reason to shift the official track based on models that are jumping east and west all day, and besides the storm itself is hardly moving. Their track right now is fine.

nhc will follow a consensous, gfdl has been very very persistent. they wont jump around a bunch, but expect a shift east at 4am, even if minor.

[LAwxrgal]

Wow Scorpion, pretty much right where K landed.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[Wx_Warrior]

EDIT: Thank you 'hater!