Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Blown Away]

Its all going to depend on where this turn happens could be the difference between south florida or big bend...

If that NW turn begins around 75W instead of 78W it will shoot up the Gulfstream.

[twister]

The cone trending more westward with each model run. I live in SELA becoming concerned with this trend.

[GreenSky]

The cone trending more westward with each model run. I live in SELA becoming concerned with this trend.

Well according to Derek Orrt, an expert meteorologist on the tropical analysis forum, "GFS ensembles are indicating that the track may be farther west than expected. very little chance of west of the FL/Alabama line"

[Steve]

>>The cone trending more westward with each model run. I live in SELA becoming concerned with this trend.

You should always be concerned, but I wouldn't overblow that threat yet. Use it as an opportunity to check on your stuff and make sure you have what you need. It never hurts to top off your gas tank or to have gallon jugs or a few 24 packs of water on hand, working flashlight & radio (with ample spare batteries) and all the usual things you would need for the heart of the hurricane season anyway (since we're still 3 and a half weeks away from the statistical peak). I recommend you just stay tuned and check in from time to time. I think the models are speaking pretty clearly toward a Florida threat, but give it a look tomorrow evening and Sunday morning. Should things change and you decide you need to act, that should still give you ample time to cover all your bases.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian does not reform center to SW of Haiti-DR border, like I think is very possible (but not certain), but check it out in 72 hours!






Yes, it is the Canadian, ie the Crazy Uncle Model.

[jinftl]

is this a slight east shift/end of trend west...or just more agreement and less outliers with the different model runs?

these scenarios would probably still bring tropical storm conditions to all of south florida.

Remarkable 5 day cluster of models, don't think that cluster will push the NHC track W at 5am. SFL is not out of the woods for sure.

[SouthFloridawx]

The models shifted more in agreement with the NHC, lol.

[jinftl]

based on these model runs being the latest...i wouldn't expect much change in forecast track at 5am unless some new info comes to light before then

The models shifted more in agreement with the NHC, lol.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO shift East....Has center east of Florida

120
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081600!!/

Then @ 144 (NE Florida)
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081600!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081600!!/

[KWT]

Models now in pretty good agreement on a gradual turn towards Florida. The eCM is probably now something of a outlier and I can't see it being right however the other models all looking pretty good, if it gets strong enough before Cuba then the biggest threat does appear to be S.Florida.

Just have to see what happens I suppose, got a sneaky feeling the models still haven't quite finished shifting yet.

[LaBreeze]

Unfortunately for FL, I think this is Florida's baby. Best wishes to you all in FL.- stay safe.

[ronjon]

I noticed the 06Z runs of the BAMs shifted west into the eastern GOM - don't know if that is the beginning of a trend or just models swinging back and forth. Yesterday, it was the BAM suite that led the way on the westward shift. God, I hope this thing either goes 150 miles+ west in the Gulf or better yet - inland before it gets to my latitude. For us residents of FL west coast, Fay is a painful reminder of Charley - the storm that hit 4 years and 3 days ago.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[Toyota Thundra]

I noticed the 06Z runs of the BAMs shifted west into the eastern GOM - don't know if that is the beginning of a trend or just models swinging back and forth. Yesterday, it was the BAM suite that led the way on the westward shift. God, I hope this thing either goes 150 miles+ west in the Gulf or better yet - inland before it gets to my latitude. For us residents of FL west coast, Fay is a painful reminder of Charley - the storm that hit 4 years and 3 days ago.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Agreed.... We were in tampa biting our fingernails 8 hours out or so and then BAM! Hard right for Cape Coral. I hope this girl brings us no such suprises.

[Nimbus]

The deep layer BAMD which shows steering for stronger well stacked systems is a lot further east than the shallow BAMS which would provide guidance for a weaker system. The dynamic models are following the BAMD no surprise.

The IR imagery at 5 AM shows fairly strong convection south of Haiti so that may be an indication that the center will miss SE Cuba and have more time over water. I'm waiting to see where the LLC comes off Haiti.

The NHC is wise to keep the track close to the west coast of Florida for now. Let the media pick up on the storm and get people prepared over the weekend. Even if Fay tracks further west she could still recurve unexpectedly like Charley did. If Fay really is south of the forecast track that would be good news for south Florida (excluding key west.)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 36_m.shtml

06z shows it remaining over water south of Cuba outwards of 36 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

54 hours it is moving over the area or near it wher Charley crossed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066m.gif

Not much change.

[Nimbus]

54 hours it is moving over the area or near it wher Charley crossed.

From memory Charley crossed Jamaica moving more WNW than West like Fay is and the upper level environment was different. I don't have any archived water vapor images but wasn't there a more pronounced digging trough in the gulf then? What we will have with Fay looks more like it will be a weakness that pulls Fay poleward and that would still leave the door open to a track towards Mobile Bay.

[NDG]

Looks like 06z gfs has shifted eastward closer to the euro, not looking good for SW FL on this run

[AdamFirst]

Does the GFS have an intensity report?