ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CourierPR]

Check out the front page article titled "Tropical Trouble for Florida" at AccuWeather concerning the possible ramping up of 92L.

[storms in NC]

MiamiensisWx
WOW I did a post one time just as you just did and I was told Not to do so again. Reason was took up to much of the page. But Any hows. I have read this for a few days now it really don't say much to me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was mocked mercilessly (well, someone said I was wrong) for saying before lunch I thought 92L looke dbetter today than yesterday.


I still looks better to me than it did yesterday. Still looks like the storms aren't over the apparent low level area of max turning, but it continues to look better.



Up to 56.375% chance of a TD w/i 24 hours. The extra digits imply a degree of certainty that has no basis in actual facts or science.

[artist]

Senor, how 'come we don't see much of you in the regular discussion threads. Is that not your cup o' tea? Love what you put out, as always.

Let's face it--tropical weather is not my expertise. I love it like as a hobby and I have had plenty of formal training on the subject, it's not the thing I focus on day in and day out. Now, if you were to ask me about European or Asian weather--that would be a different story. I'll try to pitch in, time permitting, but you're more apt to find me in the Tropical Analysis forum where things are much less chaotic.

it would be great to have you chiming in when you get the chance, senor.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think this is its night, its contining to pop out new convection around the cent and maybe forming a LLC. I think it may be a depression by 11pm if convection further builds and forms a LLC quickly, and if it maintains the convection overnight it will TD byt the RECON tommrrrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

Dominica reporting NNW winds..
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDCF.html

[jaxfladude]

Check out the front page article titled "Tropical Trouble for Florida" at AccuWeather concerning the possible ramping up of 92L.

Sideswipe for Florida depending on how close a shave(best track)....at worst a weak side of the a hurricane or better yet a TS for East Coastal Florida...poof poof poof!!!
Prayers for all.....

[txag2005]

Dominica reporting NNW winds..
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDCF.html

Does that point towards possible circulation?

[Vortex]

Folks,

We now can finally say we have a developing system. Organization the last few hours is l underway.

[Aric Dunn]

buoy just east of there a 150 miles or so
has SSW winds
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100

[CourierPR]

I think this is its night, its contining to pop out new convection around the cent and maybe forming a LLC. I think it may be a depression by 11pm if convection further builds and forms a LLC quickly, and if it maintains the convection overnight it will TD byt the RECON tommrrrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It appears to be getting healthier slowly. Could this be 1999 Debby in reverse?

[jlauderdal]

sweet, this is really good stuff to chew on for those that like to analyze instead of argue

[HeatherAKC]

Folks,

We now can finally say we have a developing system. Organization the last few hours is l underway.

I can only hope so that the models can get a better handle on this! Enough already!

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note tomorrow .. if the system start to develop we get to watch it on the PR radar I love doing that..

[jlauderdal]

that sst map even to the most untrained of board members should stick out like a sore thumb especially looking at the future course of the disturbance and the juicy temps it has to work with

[Ed Mahmoud]

Folks,

We now can finally say we have a developing system. Organization the last few hours is l underway.

I've been burned before, but this is looking better by the frame.

[cycloneye]

on a side note tomorrow .. if the system start to develop we get to watch it on the PR radar I love doing that..

Yes,the long range will be a valuable tool.

[KWT]

All depends on where you think the center is, if wxman57 center still exists then convection is still fairly displaced, though I think its far more likely something tries to get going in the convection where the greatest instablity clearly is.

[CourierPR]

Folks,

We now can finally say we have a developing system. Organization the last few hours is l underway.

I've been burned before, but this is looking better by the frame.

Ed, it looks like somebody turned on the switch.

[gatorcane]

Been saying that all day today as well.

Convection will not likely go poof this go around --- new LLC forming as we speak, no doubt and right under the convection ball.

Get ready for the ride, lets hope it stays weak