ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AJC3]

And yet the new 12Z ECM is actually south/west of it's 00Z track (and MUCH weaker), taking the system to the western tip of Cuba by day 7.

By day 7 the Euro actually has this system inland over the FL Peninsula: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

This is truly bizarre. We get two versions of the ECM here at work...low-res and high-res. The low res has a temporal resolution of 24 hr and goes out to H168 (day 7) while the high-res has a temporal res of 12 hr and goes out to H240 (day 10). I looked at the high-res version which came in just as I was about to leave work and saw it was totally different than the low-res...much stronger and an almost Donna-like track right up the spine of FL. Even stranger was that when I reloaded the 12Z low-res progs, it was actually almost on top of the high-res progs with the track, only weaker.

So I stand corrected (and thoroughly confused about how this happened).

[KWT]

Yep this system probably still has another 24hrs to do anything by which time it will be crossing the leeward islands. Needs to pick up a little more latitude to avoid the greater islands preventing any development but I think it should end up a little to the north, enough not to prevent at least a weak system spinning up in about 36-72hrs time, after that conditions appear to get better aloft and I'd guess some better strengthening should occur though to what extent depends on exactly where its at at the time.

[Honeyko]

If an upper-low develops over Cuba or Haiti, expect 92 to suffer the same fate as 99 -- nada until next chance in the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Hurricane Donna track mentioned above:

[boca]

It looks like the convection is being puued temporarily NNW. The ITCZ just SE of 92L looks healthy. I wonder if that will have a fate on 92L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

latest:

looking better and better by the hour:

[Blown Away]

latest:
looking better and better by the hour:

What is going to happen tonight, is the convection going to dissipate again? 92L looks good rate now, it will have to make it through the night before I get to excited.

[Stratosphere747]

It's actually losing the convective burst that's been shown since this morning.

Derek may have been on to something earlier...

[alienstorm]

OK couple of interesting developments here.

1) Clearly nice developing band on NE side of MLC
2) Possible banding developing on western side.
3) Thunderstorms firing up on south/southwest inflow to MLC

It clearly looks like finally the MLC has won out over the area of lowest pressure located further SW.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

Let see what the next few hours show... Comments Welcome

[Aric Dunn]

And yet the new 12Z ECM is actually south/west of it's 00Z track (and MUCH weaker), taking the system to the western tip of Cuba by day 7.

By day 7 the Euro actually has this system inland over the FL Peninsula: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

This is truly bizarre. We get two versions of the ECM here at work...low-res and high-res. The low res has intervals of 24hr and goes out to H168 (day 7) while the high-res has intervals of 12hr and goes out to H240 (day 10). I looked at the high-res version which came in just as I was about to leave and saw it was totally different than the low-res...much stronger and an almost Donna-like track right up the spine of FL. Even stranger was that when I reloaded the 12Z low-res progs, it was actually almost on top of the high-res progs with the track, only weaker.

So I stand corrected (and thoroughly confused about how this happened).

i have an possible answer. its really my own theory ( i never heard it anywhere else) but hispanola does some very interesting things to cyclones as we all know. but models im pretty sure dont take into account land interaction very well ( do they?) beside weakening trends. But if you all remember hurricane Debby it had a similar forecast actually.
although it was a hurricne this time, it was not intensity that was interesting it was the forecast path vs. the actual path. image below shows the forcast path and the one below that was the actual path.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Debby_2000_track.png


So my theory/ idea for many years now is that although we know mountainess terrain will almost certainly weaken a system, what about its track...
with debbie i came up with an analogy "tether ball effect" imagine a tether ball swinging around a pole, now picture the inflow of the system as the rope and hispanola as the pole. disregarding the dynamics of "how" it seems reasonable to assume something similar happened with debbie. now relating it to 92l and the CMC/euro forecast. I not sure on the parameters that the models take into account but, i have been working on a model here at school (sort of) for tornadoes in the area of large building and something simialr showed up those models. so i have to imagine it is at least plausible.

[boca]

latest:
looking better and better by the hour:

What is going to happen tonight, is the convection going to dissipate again? 92L looks good rate now, it will have to make it through the night before I get to excited.

I was just going to say that does it refire during the normal cycle of dmax or does it pull what it did last night.I thought this morning that the convection would of pulsed down by now.So far I'm wrong with that assumption.

[KWT]

Well given the lowest pressure is further W it would make sense that the convection completely dies down at times, needs to get better stacked if any weak lower pressure region is further west.

[tolakram]

I see more outflow boundaries streaming away to the north west. We could be looking for another total collapse this evening but I'm never able to tell until after it happens.

[boca]

If this collaspes I won't be surprised like last night I'll expect it.

[tolakram]

Outflow Boundaries visible but also what appears to be new convection forming below the low pressure center.

[gatorcane]

I see some kind of LLC trying to form right underneath the ball of convection. What gives it a way is a band of low-level clouds streaming into the ball as seen here, I doubt we will see any more collapsing of convection that we saw previously.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[vbhoutex]

Even though I do see the convection firing, I am also seeing or think I am shear out ahead of it that will diminish its' chances in the short term(1-2 days and I haven't looked at the shear maps so I could be all wrong). Once it is past that shear and/or it diminishes I have got to say that I do think this system is slowly organizing, as many have said it would, and could be a real problem within a week.

Boy do we remember Debby, don't we Tony? That was a freaking nightmare to try and figure out.

Interesting theory Aric.

[OURAGAN]

16,5N/58,3W,the best tracK from NRL

[tolakram]

If this is believable there is a big patch of shear just in front of it.

[Orlando_wx]

And yet the new 12Z ECM is actually south/west of it's 00Z track (and MUCH weaker), taking the system to the western tip of Cuba by day 7.

By day 7 the Euro actually has this system inland over the FL Peninsula: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

This is truly bizarre. We get two versions of the ECM here at work...low-res and high-res. The low res has a temporal resolution of 24 hr and goes out to H168 (day 7) while the high-res has a temporal res of 12 hr and goes out to H240 (day 10). I looked at the high-res version which came in just as I was about to leave work and saw it was totally different than the low-res...much stronger and an almost Donna-like track right up the spine of FL. Even stranger was that when I reloaded the 12Z low-res progs, it was actually almost on top of the high-res progs with the track, only weaker.

So I stand corrected (and thoroughly confused about how this happened).

What is scary about this is MiamiensisWx mentioned this in one of his forecast recently