ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wxman57]

Interesting that the reconn coming into the sytem is finding 38kt winds at flight level more than 150 miles to the NW of the cyclonic center.

That's what I've been pointing out. Check the 850mb (5000ft) winds across the Caribbean in advance of 94L. They're up to 40 kts out of the east. That's not from any circulation around 94L, it's the general wind field 94L is moving into.

[txwatcher91]

Interesting that the reconn coming into the sytem is finding 38kt winds at flight level more than 150 miles to the NW of the cyclonic center.

That's what I've been pointing out. Check the 850mb (5000ft) winds across the Caribbean in advance of 94L. They're up to 40 kts out of the east. That's not from any circulation around 94L, it's the general wind field 94L is moving into.

Which should tear 94L apart, correct?

[Thunder44]

Trinidad 1pm reported WSW wind at 8kts, Pressure down 1013mb.

TTPP 161700Z 25008KT 9999 FEW014CB BKN016TCU BKN280 30/24 Q1013 NOSIG

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html

[mattpetre]

The winds at 850 are partly from the wave ahead of 94L too though, correct? I don't believe we'll see anything but a possible TS hitting Mexico, but This doesn't look to me the kind of shear that would destroy a storm considering the direction and movement of the storm. Not so much an opinion as just a request for more explanation.

[txwatcher91]

This says no LLC.

[KWT]

Well if recon can find a closed circulation then we are going to have a tropical storm right from the off IMO as those convections are probably developing winds close to 35kts, as Derek said even if it doesn't form the effects on the islands will probably be the same.

As for the shear, 35-40kts is huge shear, if you want to see what happens when a TC gets hit by that sort of shear, look no further then Chris 2006, if it does get hit by that then its going to have such a hard time.
However if it can keep to a southerly track then shear isn't quite as extreme.

Qscat does say no LLC but it does miss them as well it should be noted.

[Ivanhater]

This says no LLC.

lol..we have recon out there now..no need to look at that

[Thunder44]

This says no LLC.

This is from this early this morning. Recon just found NW winds.

[RL3AO]

This says no LLC.

Its also 7-8 hours old.

[cycloneye]

That was from 4:00 AM EDT.

[WmE]

Well if recon can find a closed circulation then we are going to have a tropical storm right from the off IMO as those convections are probably developing winds close to 35kts, as Derek said even if it doesn't form the effects on the islands will probably be the same.

As for the shear, 35-40kts is huge shear, if you want to see what happens when a TC gets hit by that sort of shear, look no further then Chris 2006, if it does get hit by that then its going to have such a hard time.
However if it can keep to a southerly track then shear isn't quite as extreme.

Qscat does say no LLC but it does miss them as well it should be noted.

The shear that Chris encountered was mid-level shear though, which is even more harmfull to TCs as upper level shear.

[txwatcher91]

I know it is old but an LLC would not have formed in 7-9 hours.

[wxman57]

Trinidad 1pm reported WSW wind at 8kts, Pressure down 1013mb.

TTPP 161700Z 25008KT 9999 FEW014CB BKN016TCU BKN280 30/24 Q1013 NOSIG

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html

That's 300 miles away from where the NHC is identifying 94L. It's a sea breeze. Land heats up during the day, winds blow inland on the west side of the island.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know it is old but an LLC would not have formed in 7-9 hours.

Let's wait and see what recon has to say. They are definitely much more reliable than an old quikscat image.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have increased my projection of 94L becoming a TD to 95% from 80% 24 hours ago. There is a 60% chance it will become a TS by the end of the day today becoming the third named system of the 2008 season (which appears it is going to be a rather active one).

Interests in the Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system as it moves West at 20mph. Refer to the models thread for where I think this system is heading.

eh...dont get too excited...yet. Convection appears to be waning quite a bit right now. If it can maintain what it has now it might still become a td after recon flies in, assuming there is a closed llc. However I wouldnt expect much if any more than that until tonight, when it could possibly blow up again. Time will tell, because I really dont know what will happen with this storm.

Even if this does form, looking at CIMMS mean layer steering for weak to moderately strong systems, all look like a near straight East to West path. Canadian skims Northern coast of Colombia before landfall in Nicaragua.


Not an official prediction, but once it becomes clear this won't be a US threat, thread traffic will decline.

I'm still waiting for PSU tropical e-Wall four panel, so I can see if something might change that could effect a fast path Westward at low latitude.

OK, just saw PSU 4 panels. Canadian steering seems consistent with forecast of extreme low runner, GFS is through Yucatan and into BOC, and maybe, if this stays offshore, a turn Northwest that might bring it into Tamaulipas close enough to affect the sensible weather around Brownsville.



But unofficially, I'm leaning towards a Felix or Dean non-US storm.

Disclaimer: Unofficial leanings are not only unofficial, and amateurish, they are not endorsed by Storm2K or the International Ladies Garment Workers Union.

[Frank2]

It seemed to get better organized earlier today because the forward motion had slowed, but, it appears to have since resumed a faster motion, and, aside from a weak swirl in the eastern half of the wave, it seems to be just a wave at this point...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[NDG]

Interesting that the reconn coming into the sytem is finding 38kt winds at flight level more than 150 miles to the NW of the cyclonic center.

That's what I've been pointing out. Check the 850mb (5000ft) winds across the Caribbean in advance of 94L. They're up to 40 kts out of the east. That's not from any circulation around 94L, it's the general wind field 94L is moving into.

Barbados sounding from 12z only showed 20knot winds at H85, the higher winds were at H70, up to 50 kts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think it may have a weak LLC that may not be entirely closed yet. Trinidad had reported light W to SW winds in past two hours:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html

They also had a light West wind this time roughly yesterday. May be part of some local land/sea breeze interaction. Just saying.

It seems like TTPP gets gentle West breezes in the late morning, and may not be an indicator of a closed circulation.

[RL3AO]

They might have missed the circulation, but that shows no signs of a closed circulation. Pressure of 1010.3

[MiamiensisWx]

The "past two hours" at Trinidad are part of the afternoon; don't forget that Trinidad is several hours ahead of EDT.