ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[carversteve]

not sure what you are getting at to be honest OURAGAN?

IMO 92L still has a fair chance of developing, needs another 24hrs yet before it has any chance of getting going, also need to miss the islands to the north, still not a forgone conclusion.

I'm just glad you understood what he was saying!!

[Aric Dunn]

Convection once again has fired over the center, its very interesting to watch flare up and flare down again, I still think we aren't quite ready for to go ahead and develop just yet and may still take another 12-24hrs but upper conditions look far better now with that upper ridge forming.

Track should remain a little south of WNW now IMO, going to come fairly close to the Ne Caribbean Islands IMO.

well lets not start calling it the center and lets just say convection has fired up again. cause no center yet. now hopefully either two things happen

1. a center develops and we get something going
2. its stops being annoying and just dies

either one sounds ok to me right about now..

looks like a closed low at the surface in the visables in the past few hours... maybe it is starting to get its act together a little bit... i know the convection is on the downturn again, but you can see what looks like a closed low at the surface..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I've been watching it waiting to mention anything till i see something more definate. i can see some clearly more defined inflow on the south side and a little more curved could line towards the nw and west that looks like they are trying to be pulled in. but the weak (mean) area that everything appers to be rotating around is just that very very weak and very little convergence in that area. so look for a center to develope where ever convection fires and persits.


*edited by sg to put vacanechaser's comments back inside the quote box - 1:24pm cdt

[KWT]

wxman57, it looked total ok yesterday until it totally decayed but think it all depends where you think the center is...

Also thats IF your center is right, I can't see anythign there to be honest and if there is its pretty pathetic and will die very rapidly if anything develops in that convection to the east.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a 17Z surface plot with satellite. I indicated where the lowest pressure is with the "L". There doesn't seem to be much of any circulation at the surface - maybe very, very weak. And I don't see any "increasing inflow" as some have mentioned. It's just a weak area of low pressure with a small area of convection off to the east right now. It looked A LOT better yesterday than it does today. That's not to say it won't develop at all, but it's not developing today.

you beat me to the image that is what i was about to post.. i do agree except the over all appearace today is better in respect to the shape of the apparent circualtion... yesterday it was quite elongated. as i mentioned just a min ago the is a very weak low ( as did you ). you have to agree that from yesterday inflow is somewhat more definable at the least. it may not be anything to get excited about but it is what it is and time will tell .

[gtsmith]

Do most invests normally take this long to develop or die off? It gets a bit frustrating to not know what is going to happen.

2006 season was very much like this...does it develop...next 24 hours will tell...24 hours later...is it going to develop? next 24 hours will tell...etc. etc. etc. it was like that all season IIRC...

[KWT]

If there is a circulation there its very ill defined IMO looking at the loops and I think one big burst in the convection and any center that may be further west will snuff it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[wxman57]

wxman57, it looked total ok yesterday until it totally decayed but think it all depends where you think the center is...

Also thats IF your center is right, I can't see anythign there to be honest and if there is its pretty pathetic and will die very rapidly if anything develops in that convection to the east.

There's no doubt I've identified the area of lowest pressure on that image. There are even surface obs around it to confirm that. Definitely higher pressure and nothing at the surface near the convection. It's a weak, exposed area of low pressure with an isolated burst of convection 150 miles to the east.

[Aric Dunn]

If there is a circulation there its very ill defined IMO looking at the loops and I think one big burst in the convection and any center that may be further west will snuff it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

well of course.. that area is weak and what ever persistant convection that forms will likely be the place for a low to form..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree with wxman57's center. That is what I have been seeing all day long. I don't know if I agree so much with the inflow not getting better though. To me, it does look to be a bit more defined on today's satellite loops. The center also looks less elongated.

[Derek Ortt]

have to disagree about not having more inflow

there is more inflow to the east of the low

that's not the best for development, however

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Best Track Position:

AL, 92, 2008081318, , BEST, 0, 165N, 583W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 220, 80,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


Moving 280 degrees west.

[KWT]

There's no doubt I've identified the area of lowest pressure on that image. There are even surface obs around it to confirm that. Definitely higher pressure and nothing at the surface near the convection. It's a weak, exposed area of low pressure with an isolated burst of convection 150 miles to the east.

Yep fair enough, area of lowest pressure doesn't mean LLC I suppose, just saying I ccan't see nothing on loops to suggest a circulation there at all...but i'll grant it I'm far from a pro!

Edit---best track agrees as well with you, fair enough you win hehe!

EDIt 2---Still I Don't agree with you aobut yesterday, it looked real cruddy and only had a MLC, no LLC at all, least this may have a weak weak LLC now...

[ronjon]

Interesting discussion from HPC this afternoon:

TROPICAL INVEST 92L MAY AFFECT FL LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALIZED TRACK AND TPC/HPC COODINTAION CONSENSUS CARRIES IT THRU SRN AND CENTRAL FL. INTENSITY FORECASTS VARY GREATLY FROM AN ILL DEFINED WEAK WAVE TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE. STRONGEST DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 12Z NAM. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[alienstorm]

Here's a 17Z surface plot with satellite. I indicated where the lowest pressure is with the "L". There doesn't seem to be much of any circulation at the surface - maybe very, very weak. And I don't see any "increasing inflow" as some have mentioned. It's just a weak area of low pressure with a small area of convection off to the east right now. It looked A LOT better yesterday than it does today. That's not to say it won't develop at all, but it's not developing today.

you beat me to the image that is what i was about to post.. i do agree except the over all appearace today is better in respect to the shape of the apparent circualtion... yesterday it was quite elongated. as i mentioned just a min ago the is a very weak low ( as did you ). you have to agree that from yesterday inflow is somewhat more definable at the least. it may not be anything to get excited about but it is what it is and time will tell .

If this is the center than this is very much done, dead.. There is strong southerly shear and no inflow what so ever.

[gatorcane]

Interesting discussion from HPC this afternoon:

TROPICAL INVEST 92L MAY AFFECT FL LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALIZED TRACK AND TPC/HPC COODINTAION CONSENSUS CARRIES IT THRU SRN AND CENTRAL FL. INTENSITY FORECASTS VARY GREATLY FROM AN ILL DEFINED WEAK WAVE TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE. STRONGEST DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 12Z NAM. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Well as I have been forecasting peninsula FL (especially Southern FL) should have some kind of impact from 92L. Whether it passes by as an open wave or something else is the million dollar question. The synoptic pattern is setting up for a possible hurricane impacting Southern FL from the East, if 92L can get going it will have everything it needs to develop into something as it heads generally WNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a 17Z surface plot with satellite. I indicated where the lowest pressure is with the "L". There doesn't seem to be much of any circulation at the surface - maybe very, very weak. And I don't see any "increasing inflow" as some have mentioned. It's just a weak area of low pressure with a small area of convection off to the east right now. It looked A LOT better yesterday than it does today. That's not to say it won't develop at all, but it's not developing today.

you beat me to the image that is what i was about to post.. i do agree except the over all appearace today is better in respect to the shape of the apparent circualtion... yesterday it was quite elongated. as i mentioned just a min ago the is a very weak low ( as did you ). you have to agree that from yesterday inflow is somewhat more definable at the least. it may not be anything to get excited about but it is what it is and time will tell .

If this is the center than this is very much done, dead.. There is strong southerly shear and no inflow what so ever.

we have to watch out that we dont call it a "center" as that would be inaccurate. and area on low pressure is more correct. also that is the "mean" area that one would conclude after extrapolating a "mean" center/low pressure area from what ever curved bands that are present to do so...

[KWT]

Its an area of lower pressure, I highly doubt its even close to being closed so even a low pressure wouldn't be right, maybe just a fairly sharp trough would be a better terminology for it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's a 17Z surface plot with satellite. I indicated where the lowest pressure is with the "L". There doesn't seem to be much of any circulation at the surface - maybe very, very weak. And I don't see any "increasing inflow" as some have mentioned. It's just a weak area of low pressure with a small area of convection off to the east right now. It looked A LOT better yesterday than it does today. That's not to say it won't develop at all, but it's not developing today.

you beat me to the image that is what i was about to post.. i do agree except the over all appearace today is better in respect to the shape of the apparent circualtion... yesterday it was quite elongated. as i mentioned just a min ago the is a very weak low ( as did you ). you have to agree that from yesterday inflow is somewhat more definable at the least. it may not be anything to get excited about but it is what it is and time will tell .

If this is the center than this is very much done, dead.. There is strong southerly shear and no inflow what so ever.

Yep. Done. This is gone in the next 5 minutes and there will never be another tropical storm ever again.

Why dont you eat those words tomorrow. Personally, I think this will organize a bit tomorrow, as conditions should really start to improve...but really all it has to do is exist tomorrow in order for you to eat your words.

[Aric Dunn]

Its an area of lower pressure, I highly doubt its even close to being closed so even a low pressure wouldn't be right, maybe just a fairly sharp trough would be a better terminology for it.

lows dont have to be closed! there can be an area of low pressure without a closed circulation..

[Extremeweatherguy]

alienstorm - What do you mean "No inflow what so ever"? I see plenty of inflow into that area.