ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jlauderdal]

good for them, seriously, instead of trying thread the needle they say everyone from texas to miami and they are right

And NE Ft. Lauderdale can thank you for going to the effort to assure a miss!

yep, firing up the generator for a few minutes did the job, saved the south florida economy millions and millions of dollars, i heard someone else out there today firing there's up too for the kill shot on general ike, good luck to those that have to deal with the wrath of ike but maybe cooba will shred up the general

[Ed Mahmoud]

I like that I can check the robustness of the GFS against ensemble members. No free Euro ensembles on the internet. Canadian ensembles on the 0Z run on the PSU e-Wall, but Canadian has been whack this year.

I will say, looking at individual ensemble members, most don't even seem to have Ike as a significant storm in a week. But only three of them have a 500 mb pattern that looks even remotely threatening to Texas.


Plus, of course, the GFS says no problems next weekend at my house, or for Arkansas vs Texas game.

[ROCK]

Look where 12z EURO ends Ike at landfall,Southern Texas/Mexico.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090612!!/

2 runs in a row with this scenario......4 runs with a WGOM to SWLA scenario...1 lone run into CLA a few days ago...EURO is setting the trend....

Sorry ED......ice it down bro....

[Agua]

Looks like the models coming into good agreement on a hit on either C/E gulf of Mexicio

Weren't the models in good agreement yesterday morning on a recurve east of FL?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Bottom line, wait for the upper air data before making sweeping statements. I was up early and saw everything trending east, now later in the day, they are starting to trend back west. The pendulum continues to swing. If you were here a lot over the last 24 hours, versus a momentary entry, you would see that. We await the feed of GOOD data tonite into the models so they can reflect more accurate thinking.

[Weatherfreak000]

Look where 12z EURO ends Ike at landfall,Southern Texas/Mexico.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090612!!/

2 runs in a row with this scenario......4 runs with a WGOM to SWLA scenario...1 lone run into CLA a few days ago...EURO is setting the trend....

Sorry ED......ice it down bro....

You realize how impossible that run was right? It is sending the storm into NOLA and then all the sudden a MONSTER ridge builds in and shoots the storm WSW into South Texas...in September?


That Euro has a snowballs chance in hell of verifying.

[bucman1]

last night their was a major shift west ,this morning east,when should we have a handle on this or will these changes continue till tuesday/Weds?

[ROCK]

Look where 12z EURO ends Ike at landfall,Southern Texas/Mexico.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090612!!/

2 runs in a row with this scenario......4 runs with a WGOM to SWLA scenario...1 lone run into CLA a few days ago...EURO is setting the trend....

Sorry ED......ice it down bro....

You realize how impossible that run was right? It is sending the storm into NOLA and then all the sudden a MONSTER ridge builds in and shoots the storm WSW into South Texas...in September?


That Euro has a snowballs chance in hell of verifying.

I know Weather, you see my cone as I said day one was Tampico to Lake Charles...probably to far west but I am sticking with my guns and giving Ed some grief in doing it......

[Agua]

last night their was a major shift west ,this morning east,when should we have a handle on this or will these changes continue till tuesday/Weds?

No one knows. About a day and a half before landfall, NHC should have a track within 100 miles, that's the best you can say.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Look where 12z EURO ends Ike at landfall,Southern Texas/Mexico.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090612!!/

2 runs in a row with this scenario......4 runs with a WGOM to SWLA scenario...1 lone run into CLA a few days ago...EURO is setting the trend....

Sorry ED......ice it down bro....

Euro is the anti-Texas season over run, isn't it. Bringing tropical storm or hurricane forced winds to the Texas entire coast as it followed it Southwest.

Too bad (for you) that it is wrong.

[ROCK]

Bottom line, wait for the upper air data before making sweeping statements. I was up early and saw everything trending east, now later in the day, they are starting to trend back west. The pendulum continues to swing. If you were here a lot over the last 24 hours, versus a momentary entry, you would see that. We await the feed of GOOD data tonite into the models so they can reflect more accurate thinking.

surely, you did not direct that statement at me? if so, please PM me and we can discuss further my statement / observation and the inside joke me and Ed have....thanks...

[perk]

Look where 12z EURO ends Ike at landfall,Southern Texas/Mexico.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090612!!/

2 runs in a row with this scenario......4 runs with a WGOM to SWLA scenario...1 lone run into CLA a few days ago...EURO is setting the trend....

Sorry ED......ice it down bro....

You realize how impossible that run was right? It is sending the storm into NOLA and then all the sudden a MONSTER ridge builds in and shoots the storm WSW into South Texas...in September?


That Euro has a snowballs chance in hell of verifying.

I just watched the Euro and the center did not make landfall in New Orleans, you need to stop it and watch it frame by frame.

[KWT]

Looks like the models coming into good agreement on a hit on either C/E gulf of Mexicio

Weren't the models in good agreement yesterday morning on a recurve east of FL?

Not really the models were very split yesterday morning and it was really only the GFS that was recurving though even that trend came to an end very shortly after that run yesterday.

The ECM run is totally unrealisitic, it would require a high pressure even strong then the one sending Ike WSW to shunt it that far SW!

[Jessie]

Mobile doesn't have a version of "311" like we have in HOU area, where elderly/mobility impaired can register at the start of hurricane season, and will be assisted in evacuating if they live in an area targetted for evacuation? You might make a few phone calls and find out

The only areas to be evacuated will be the areas that flood and those people will be taken to shelters. We're like Houston --- very inland --- West Mobile is 20 miles inland -- no chance of flooding. Realistically, I know that houses don't blow down. I have durashields for the windows and no pine trees so I'm sure things will be fine ---it's just so scary!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like the models coming into good agreement on a hit on either C/E gulf of Mexicio

Weren't the models in good agreement yesterday morning on a recurve east of FL?

Not really the models were very split yesterday morning and it was really only the GFS that was recurving though even that trend came to an end very shortly after that run yesterday.

The ECM run is totally unrealisitic, it would require a high pressure even strong then the one sending Ike WSW to shunt it that far SW!

Yup.

[ROCK]

Look where 12z EURO ends Ike at landfall,Southern Texas/Mexico.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090612!!/

2 runs in a row with this scenario......4 runs with a WGOM to SWLA scenario...1 lone run into CLA a few days ago...EURO is setting the trend....

Sorry ED......ice it down bro....

Euro is the anti-Texas season over run, isn't it. Bringing tropical storm or hurricane forced winds to the Texas entire coast as it followed it Southwest.

Too bad (for you) that it is wrong.

Yeah it is borderline impossible for that run to verify Ed.....just pushing your buttons fellow Texan.....BTW- I picked Arkansas over Texas by 3 on the final play of the game...

[cape_escape]

Bottom line, wait for the upper air data before making sweeping statements. I was up early and saw everything trending east, now later in the day, they are starting to trend back west. The pendulum continues to swing. If you were here a lot over the last 24 hours, versus a momentary entry, you would see that. We await the feed of GOOD data tonite into the models so they can reflect more accurate thinking.

I agree...one minute it seems we're all safe her on the West Coast, then boom, we're not again.

[jlauderdal]

Bottom line, wait for the upper air data before making sweeping statements. I was up early and saw everything trending east, now later in the day, they are starting to trend back west. The pendulum continues to swing. If you were here a lot over the last 24 hours, versus a momentary entry, you would see that. We await the feed of GOOD data tonite into the models so they can reflect more accurate thinking.

surely, you did not direct that statement at me? if so, please PM me and we can discuss further my statement / observation and the inside joke me and Ed have....thanks...

hey rock, keep your inside jokes on PM, this is a public board...

[boca]

It looks like if Ike stays on its present track it would miss us by 200 to 300miles to the south. That high won't weaken until Ike is SW of us,another words I'm no longer that concerned about it affect Palm Beach county.

[deltadog03]

I am sorry...I am a HUGE fan of the euro, but that dosn't look correct at all. There is a front that stretches all the way down to the gulf coast from NE. I would think that front should draw it up and in.....