ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

Orange at 2 PM

[txag2005]

Do most invests normally take this long to develop or die off? It gets a bit frustrating to not know what is going to happen.

yes and no! but this year seem to have a little more of that going .. I.e Dolly was quite annoying...

I remember Dolly as I was about to head down to the Riviera Maya (about an hour south of Cancun) when that Invest was in the same phase. Thankfully nothing really happened, but it was definitely stressful those last few days before our trip not knowing what was going to happen.

[tolakram]

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I believe what we are looking at in the IR (AVN) pics is what remains of the upper part of thunderstorms that are dying. The cloud tops are warming and blowing off to the north which once again gives the appearance that 92L is moving north west and it's not. We've been through this every day and its always the same tune.

In my opinion the environment has proven to be unfavorable for development and we'll have to wait it out.



JSL loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html

[Aric Dunn]

Convection once again has fired over the center, its very interesting to watch flare up and flare down again, I still think we aren't quite ready for to go ahead and develop just yet and may still take another 12-24hrs but upper conditions look far better now with that upper ridge forming.

Track should remain a little south of WNW now IMO, going to come fairly close to the Ne Caribbean Islands IMO.

well lets not start calling it the center and lets just say convection has fired up again. cause no center yet. now hopefully either two things happen

1. a center develops and we get something going
2. its stops being annoying and just dies

either one sounds ok to me right about now..

[BensonTCwatcher]

Bones?... Bones?... Has he beamed down? I surely thought this system was in full dissipation last night when the convection collapsed. So, now 24 hours later what do we have?

A pocket of steep shear to overcome ahead of the system http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html from the TUTT which is the largest factor inhibiting this storm. Unlike last night we also have some convergence/divergence happening with anticyclonic outflow. If the ULL (now over Hisp.) contiues to move W this system could overcome the shear and remaining dry air and develop a real LLC and stack up. Then we may see this pull up N never reaching FL or the EC in any form.

Bones...still standing by..

i agree for the most part except the steep shear.. only becasue that area continues to weaken as the upper low weakens and pulls away( slowly). also the likely hood of missing the US is low as by the time any trough comes the system is in the central bahamas ( according to nearly every model) and none of them show recure ( Ne motion). but we will have to see how soon as center closes of ( if at all ) either way bahamas will be in the thinck of it no matter if it develops or not.

Yes, I expect the shear to relax, but at approx 15kt current storm speed, it will still battle somewhat on the NW and W side of the system (currently maybe 20kts shear) for a few hours. I would put the chances higher than Wxman57's let's say at 40% for TD status in 48 hours. IF it makes a TD then we'll probably be making odds on Categories given the upcoming environment.

EDIT: wrote that before I saw the 2:00 pm NHC prob

[KWT]

I don't see the storms being blown northwards, I just see the upper parts of the system expand northwards. Given the huge ridge that has developed above 92L I doubt shear is any problem now.

Cloud tops have warmed but by only a small degree thus far and its got a good circular shape as well now. It may well have a big weakening of convection again but its slowly and steadily getting there it seems.

[Derek Ortt]

storms are collapsing, as expected.

if if can fire another major burst, then it MAY have a chance to do something, since the inflow has improved today

[fci]

Do most invests normally take this long to develop or die off? It gets a bit frustrating to not know what is going to happen.

Ah, it is the joy of watching the tropics.
There are no consistently right answers to questions on systems.

To answer your questions:
- Most Invests do not develop
- An invest can quickly develop or linger for a long time. Dolly was probably an invest for about a week before developing
- Don't get frustrated, it takes time and every system is different from the last one!

[gatorcane]

storms are collapsing, as expected.

if if can fire another major burst, then it MAY have a chance to do something, since the inflow has improved today

Looks like it may be firing a burst but a bit far from the "center" (deep reds now showing up). Infow is alot better, just needs that one more burst to get it going....will it happen?

[DESTRUCTION5]

storms are collapsing, as expected.

if if can fire another major burst, then it MAY have a chance to do something, since the inflow has improved today

There is....Back on top of the fence! LOL

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't see the storms being blown northwards, I just see the upper parts of the system expand northwards. Given the huge ridge that has developed above 92L I doubt shear is any problem now.

Cloud tops have warmed but by only a small degree thus far and its got a good circular shape as well now. It may well have a big weakening of convection again but its slowly and steadily getting there it seems.

not so much over the center, but look at the pops of convention between 58W and 60W and you can see a bit of shear (20-25kts) this shouldl generally retro-grade west and die out. Overall, still chugging along to me too, with future improving conditions

[Aric Dunn]

storms are collapsing, as expected.

if if can fire another major burst, then it MAY have a chance to do something, since the inflow has improved today

agreed .. that intial burst has begun to clapse but new smaler areas are firing again with in that original area per the lastes images .. but we have to wait and see if it is another burst.

and the inflow pattern for sure is better than yesterday which was higly elongated.

[KWT]

storms are collapsing, as expected.

if if can fire another major burst, then it MAY have a chance to do something, since the inflow has improved today

Yep I think we are going to have to wait for another 24hrs before we finally see that really happening but clearly the upper conditions are far better now and as you say you can see the inflow flowing in now compared with yesterday. As long as it doesn't totally die away like yesterday then it could well do something at last tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

look how impressive the inflow is on this visible loop. I have increased my chances of development.....

It's increasingly looking better to me:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[vacanechaser]

Convection once again has fired over the center, its very interesting to watch flare up and flare down again, I still think we aren't quite ready for to go ahead and develop just yet and may still take another 12-24hrs but upper conditions look far better now with that upper ridge forming.

Track should remain a little south of WNW now IMO, going to come fairly close to the Ne Caribbean Islands IMO.

well lets not start calling it the center and lets just say convection has fired up again. cause no center yet. now hopefully either two things happen

1. a center develops and we get something going
2. its stops being annoying and just dies

either one sounds ok to me right about now..

looks like a closed low at the surface in the visables in the past few hours... maybe it is starting to get its act together a little bit... i know the convection is on the downturn again, but you can see what looks like a closed low at the surface..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

The latest at 1:45 PM EDT: Certainly the inflow has improved.

[KWT]

I think there is probably at least some sort of circulation today however whether or not its at lower levels I don't have a clue, even if there is I doubt its closed yet.

gatorcane, yep can't disagree with that to be honest.

[OURAGAN]

Don't expect anything about 92 and 93L, these invests would have never been existed.

[KWT]

not sure what you are getting at to be honest OURAGAN?

IMO 92L still has a fair chance of developing, needs another 24hrs yet before it has any chance of getting going, also need to miss the islands to the north, still not a forgone conclusion.

[wxman57]

Here's a 17Z surface plot with satellite. I indicated where the lowest pressure is with the "L". There doesn't seem to be much of any circulation at the surface - maybe very, very weak. And I don't see any "increasing inflow" as some have mentioned. It's just a weak area of low pressure with a small area of convection off to the east right now. It looked A LOT better yesterday than it does today. That's not to say it won't develop at all, but it's not developing today.