ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[vaffie]

I just really want to know what the Euro does. It was the first to stop taking Ike up the east coast and enter the Gulf, and it has since led the way in the westward march of model runs for the last 36 hours and is still the most extreme west model right now--taking it all the way to Brownsville in the 0Z run. I just want to know what the 12Z run does now. Is it going to persist or is it going to start moving back east?

Well Vaffie you know me the EURO hugger of all time......the EURO has been the trend setter for all of these models....4 runs in row with a lone run about 3 days ago into NO, Upper Tx, TX/LA border, SW LA, and Central LA as the lone run.......wait a few more hours and you will have your 12z Euro.......

Rock, the Euro is a superb model. This is what the Shreveport discussion says about the Euro--and I totally agree:

"THE LONG TERM IS ANYBODY/S GUESS. THE EURO AND THE GFS COULDN/T
DISAGREE MORE. GFS WANTS TO SWING A TROUGH AND STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN US AND WARD OFF IKE TO THE EAST
COAST. THE EURO BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS IKE
IS APROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE EURO HAS HANDLED
THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS OF THIS SEASON MUCH BETTER THAN GFS...I WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR NOW FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY. WILL GO
WITH BLANKET 20S IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN."

I also think the New Orleans Met Discussion is very interesting for you model analyzers:

"
BY THURS...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY CONCERNING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THESE DIFFERENCES LEAD TO A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE 00Z GFS NOW
FORECASTS A MUCH SHALLOWER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE SHALLOW TROUGH DOES NOT
INFLUENCE IKE...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GFS FORECAST TRACK. A SECOND...MUCH DEEPER TROUGH...FINALLY PICKS
UP IKE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A VERY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET ALSO FORECAST A WELL-DEVELOPED IKE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THEY ALL CONTAIN A MORE
MUTED SECOND TROUGH WHICH ALSO BYPASSES THE CYCLONE LEADING TO A
FORECAST LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THERE ARE OTHER
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT STILL BRING IKE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

BASICALLY...AS THE FORECASTS STAND NOW...A LANDFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO MIAMI.
WITH THAT SAID...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE
NHC AND HPC GUIDANCE REGARDING IKE...AND WILL SHOW A SLOW INCREASE
OF POPS FROM THURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MYRIAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING
IKE AND ITS FUTURE TRACK. THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS
THE EVENTUAL TRACK BECOMES MORE CLEAR."

[Jagno]

I'm starting to lose faith that Ike will be torn up by Cuba since it's appearing that he won't be there long enough. Now that is cause for concern strength wise once he get's into the Gulf.

[Jessie]

We haven't had a very strong hurricane in Mobile since Frederic --- Ivan turned East at the last moment. I can stand a Frederic, but not sure how much stronger. However, I'm stuck here even if it's a cat 5, because I have very elderly parents in my home that can't be moved. My home is stronger than any shelter in Mobile (or as strong) so that's not an option. I really wish I could leave. This is just terrifying. How strong are the models predicting? I can't convert the pressures you talk about to wind speed. Thanks

[Stratosphere747]

Euro is looking similar to its previous runs.

[jlauderdal]

I just really want to know what the Euro does. It was the first to stop taking Ike up the east coast and enter the Gulf, and it has since led the way in the westward march of model runs for the last 36 hours and is still the most extreme west model right now--taking it all the way to Brownsville in the 0Z run. I just want to know what the 12Z run does now. Is it going to persist or is it going to start moving back east?

Well Vaffie you know me the EURO hugger of all time......the EURO has been the trend setter for all of these models....4 runs in row with a lone run about 3 days ago into NO, Upper Tx, TX/LA border, SW LA, and Central LA as the lone run.......wait a few more hours and you will have your 12z Euro.......

Rock, the Euro is a superb model. This is what the Shreveport discussion says about the Euro--and I totally agree:

"THE LONG TERM IS ANYBODY/S GUESS. THE EURO AND THE GFS COULDN/T
DISAGREE MORE. GFS WANTS TO SWING A TROUGH AND STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN US AND WARD OFF IKE TO THE EAST
COAST. THE EURO BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS IKE
IS APROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE EURO HAS HANDLED
THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS OF THIS SEASON MUCH BETTER THAN GFS...I WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR NOW FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY. WILL GO
WITH BLANKET 20S IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN."

I also think the New Orleans Met Discussion is very interesting for you model analyzers:

"
BY THURS...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY CONCERNING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THESE DIFFERENCES LEAD TO A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE 00Z GFS NOW
FORECASTS A MUCH SHALLOWER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE SHALLOW TROUGH DOES NOT
INFLUENCE IKE...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GFS FORECAST TRACK. A SECOND...MUCH DEEPER TROUGH...FINALLY PICKS
UP IKE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A VERY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET ALSO FORECAST A WELL-DEVELOPED IKE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THEY ALL CONTAIN A MORE
MUTED SECOND TROUGH WHICH ALSO BYPASSES THE CYCLONE LEADING TO A
FORECAST LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THERE ARE OTHER
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT STILL BRING IKE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

BASICALLY...AS THE FORECASTS STAND NOW...A LANDFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO MIAMI.
WITH THAT SAID...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE
NHC AND HPC GUIDANCE REGARDING IKE...AND WILL SHOW A SLOW INCREASE
OF POPS FROM THURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MYRIAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING
IKE AND ITS FUTURE TRACK. THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS
THE EVENTUAL TRACK BECOMES MORE CLEAR."

good for them, seriously, instead of trying thread the needle they say everyone from texas to miami and they are right

[Ed Mahmoud]

Screamingly unofficial, and purely amateurish speculation, not endorsed at all by Storm2K or anyone else

I don't need to see the 12Z Euro, because the GFS and GFDL have been pretty good. They should be even better tomorrow with upper air data from the G-IV, but I'll go on a limb now.

The amateur and unofficial guess from last week, Lake Charles to A'p'cola, centered on Mobile, that I backed away from, wasn't that bad. But the models had trended away, and they are trending back. And this time, it is 4 days closer to show time.

Intracoastal City to just North of Tampa, centered on Panama City Beach, the 12th, plus or minus half a day (two day cone on time, if you think about it), if it hits a lot of Cuba, as low as a Cat 2, if it skins Cuba, could make Cat 5 in the Gulf before weakening back to a Cat 4 before landfall. Central LA to Central Florida is a big spread, I'll whittle that tomorrow sharply, probably, assuming GFS and GFDL stay close, and I think they will.

I think Cuba is key. Today's GFS is so stout on Ike in the Gulf, it shows low pressure at 250 mb above it, so I can't get a handle on shear. We have seen a strong Ike battles shear pretty well. Last nights GFS showed 20 knots plus Northerly flow in the Gulf. Recall how Gustav was unaffected by shear until Cuba knocked it back, then shear and dry air got to the center. Hence, the range from Cat 2, just like Gustav, to a possible cat 5. Camille didn't weaken approaching the coast as a Cat 5, but it was the exception, not the rule.




** Unofficial opinion, based on best knowledge I can find on the world wide interweb, but I am not a degreed met or a professional. **

[Frank2]

Here's the IR loop - look at that wedge pushing Ike along!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

also notice the northward movement off the south Texas coast, so, apparently the trough is fairly weak...

[Ed Mahmoud]

We haven't had a very strong hurricane in Mobile since Frederic --- Ivan turned East at the last moment. I can stand a Frederic, but not sure how much stronger. However, I'm stuck here even if it's a cat 5, because I have very elderly parents in my home that can't be moved. My home is stronger than any shelter in Mobile (or as strong) so that's not an option. I really wish I could leave. This is just terrifying. How strong are the models predicting? I can't convert the pressures you talk about to wind speed. Thanks

Mobile doesn't have a version of "311" like we have in HOU area, where elderly/mobility impaired can register at the start of hurricane season, and will be assisted in evacuating if they live in an area targetted for evacuation? You might make a few phone calls and find out.

[ROCK]

Euro is looking similar to its previous runs.

so far......Scott

[ROCK]

Screamingly unofficial, and purely amateurish speculation, not endorsed at all by Storm2K or anyone else

I don't need to see the 12Z Euro, because the GFS and GFDL have been pretty good. They should be even better tomorrow with upper air data from the G-IV, but I'll go on a limb now.

The amateur and unofficial guess from last week, Lake Charles to A'p'cola, centered on Mobile, that I backed away from, wasn't that bad. But the models had trended away, and they are trending back. And this time, it is 4 days closer to show time.

Intracoastal City to just North of Tampa, centered on Panama City Beach, the 12th, plus or minus half a day (two day cone on time, if you think about it), if it hits a lot of Cuba, as low as a Cat 2, if it skins Cuba, could make Cat 5 in the Gulf before weakening back to a Cat 4 before landfall. Central LA to Central Florida is a big spread, I'll whittle that tomorrow sharply, probably, assuming GFS and GFDL stay close, and I think they will.

I think Cuba is key. Today's GFS is so stout on Ike in the Gulf, it shows low pressure at 250 mb above it, so I can't get a handle on shear. We have seen a strong Ike battles shear pretty well. Last nights GFS showed 20 knots plus Northerly flow in the Gulf. Recall how Gustav was unaffected by shear until Cuba knocked it back, then shear and dry air got to the center. Hence, the range from Cat 2, just like Gustav, to a possible cat 5. Camille didn't weaken approaching the coast as a Cat 5, but it was the exception, not the rule.




** Unofficial opinion, based on best knowledge I can find on the world wide interweb, but I am not a degreed met or a professional. **

you are putting faith in Ike feeling the weakness around the NGOM.....up into FL panhandle.....which is not a bad guess.....you odds probably 50/50 right now..... You should have waited on the 12z EURO......

[Stratosphere747]

Euro is looking similar to its previous runs.

so far......Scott

Only have it out to 192. Looks like a slowdown, but hard to tell.

[jlauderdal]

Screamingly unofficial, and purely amateurish speculation, not endorsed at all by Storm2K or anyone else

I don't need to see the 12Z Euro, because the GFS and GFDL have been pretty good. They should be even better tomorrow with upper air data from the G-IV, but I'll go on a limb now.

The amateur and unofficial guess from last week, Lake Charles to A'p'cola, centered on Mobile, that I backed away from, wasn't that bad. But the models had trended away, and they are trending back. And this time, it is 4 days closer to show time.

Intracoastal City to just North of Tampa, centered on Panama City Beach, the 12th, plus or minus half a day (two day cone on time, if you think about it), if it hits a lot of Cuba, as low as a Cat 2, if it skins Cuba, could make Cat 5 in the Gulf before weakening back to a Cat 4 before landfall. Central LA to Central Florida is a big spread, I'll whittle that tomorrow sharply, probably, assuming GFS and GFDL stay close, and I think they will.

I think Cuba is key. Today's GFS is so stout on Ike in the Gulf, it shows low pressure at 250 mb above it, so I can't get a handle on shear. We have seen a strong Ike battles shear pretty well. Last nights GFS showed 20 knots plus Northerly flow in the Gulf. Recall how Gustav was unaffected by shear until Cuba knocked it back, then shear and dry air got to the center. Hence, the range from Cat 2, just like Gustav, to a possible cat 5. Camille didn't weaken approaching the coast as a Cat 5, but it was the exception, not the rule.




** Unofficial opinion, based on best knowledge I can find on the world wide interweb, but I am not a degreed met or a professional. **

hey ed, what part of the gfs have you liked?

[Sanibel]

GFDL corrected west with consensus. Chance of Ft Myers hit drops.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Here are the latest tracks from GFDL,UKMET,HWRF,NOGAPS and the BAMS.

[Weatherfreak000]

HWRF is west of the NHC...it hasn't updated yet.

[Agua]

good for them, seriously, instead of trying thread the needle they say everyone from texas to miami and they are right

And NE Ft. Lauderdale can thank you for going to the effort to assure a miss!

[cycloneye]

Look where 12z EURO ends Ike at landfall,Southern Texas/Mexico.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090612!!/

[KWT]

Looks like the models coming into good agreement on a hit on either C/E gulf of Mexicio and most models give Ike at least 2-3 days over the gulf of Mexico waters, plenty of time for strengthening back into a decent hurricane as well sadly for those in the gulf, even if Cuba does weaken it down to a low end TS which is quite possible...

I'm also heading the ECM has come on board with the main models, still further west but north of the 0z....of course I didn't see the end part of the run where it goes SW again...that part of it will probably be, to be frank, total nonsense!

[Weatherfreak000]

The EURO is totally whack. I can't see that ever happening in September. Next run please...

[Brent]

Here are the latest tracks from GFDL,UKMET,HWRF,NOGAPS and the BAMS.

Really don't like the looks of that...

I think the models are finally pretty close to what the track will be. I doubt we'll see anymore huge shifts.