ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

agree....rarely have i heard max say "likely threaten south florida' this far out...things can change of course in 120 hours, but there is an increasingly serious tone not only from local news....but more importantly, from the NHC.

Judging from Max Mayfield's voice...it was rather grave...just an observation.

[bucman1]

What about the path once it goes throgh s.Fla?

Do you think it will move west across the state ,nw towards Tampa area,split the

state?

What do you all think as lots of people have stated it will turn north sometime?

[Ocalaman]

Ocala in Marion County has been in a force field for 15 years or so, and the top winds we saw were Frances which were gusts to about 60-70mph. Is it possible Ike could cause Hurricane force winds if it came in anywhere from Miami area, to Cape Canaveral? Also how high could they reach this far inland? Thanks

[jinftl]

well whether you get a cane moving through the bahamas, cuba, florida straits, south fl, or central fl...even if it is making the turn to the north already, a second landfall is a potential double bonus...the 'cane that keeps on giving, so to speak

What about the path once it goes throgh s.Fla?

Do you think it will move west across the state ,nw towards Tampa area,split the

state?

What do you all think as lots of people have stated it will turn north sometime?

[KWT]

jinftl, I think its because the models are starting to come into better agreement again however its still way too early yet, we don't know yet if it will even hit Florida yet alone where abouts. I think the Bahamas are looking more and more locked into a dangerous hit from a major hurricane however, the worst hit forr them probably since Floyd I suspect...

[jinftl]

agree...the strength of the storm definitely adds to the level of concern. let's see where we are in 48 or 72 hours.....by then we will hopefully start to narrow down the threat area. sometimes being at the center of the cone at 120 hours is a good thing....given that the cone usually oscillates and shifts.

jinftl, I think its because the models are starting to come into better agreement again however its still way too early yet, we don't know yet if it will even hit Florida yet alone where abouts. I think the Bahamas are looking more and more locked into a dangerous hit from a major hurricane however, the worst hit forr them probably since Floyd I suspect...

[lbvbl]

The model consensus is really concerning considering how far out it is. There's usually more of a disagreement.

[jlauderdal]

agree....rarely have i heard max say "likely threaten south florida' this far out...things can change of course in 120 hours, but there is an increasingly serious tone not only from local news....but more importantly, from the NHC.

Judging from Max Mayfield's voice...it was rather grave...just an observation.

he works in the media now and not at nhc, he can say those things if he feels like it, he is being well paid to bring it all to the table

[hial2]

Max Mayfield is like Zeus' right hand hurricane man ....

I used to umpire Max Mayfield when he used to pitch softball for a christian league..in Tropical Park,Miami

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In 48 hours, we will have a much better idea of a landfall point,
I think. We will have a better grasp on the trough that may save
Florida- anybody see any troughs yet on the water vapor??
Cause I'm praying for a trough to recurve this out to sea and
away from Bermuda as well...though the current models are very
scary.

[KWT]

Indeed this is looking like being a powerful hurricane even if the shear does weaken it like the NHC suspect, you still looking at a hurricane that if it gets a 12-24hr window could be back upto 120-140kts quite easily given its small compact size.

This set-up looks really bad for the Bahamas, their only hope is if the GFDL is right and this takes an even tougher plunge to the SW then being progged.

[greels]

For any of you who may take an interest on what is going on here on Providenciales, Turks & Caicos......

Planes are flying in to evacuate folks. Air courier service here is bringing in special charter flights to Miami and folks can take their animals.

AA is offerring a one way flight off island to US citizens who hold a valid passport.......neighbors secured a flight to Philadelphia which is all the airline could offer them.

I am afraid to ask what the price of that ticket was...

Gretchen

[BocaGirl]

Everyone. Please! Let's not write off the neighborhood just yet. People are comparing Ike to Andrew, to Donna, to other awful storms. It's still a little early for that.

To the gloom and doom posters - there's still time. Tracks change. Intensity forecasts bust. Remember that, please when posting your next gloomy "gut feeling" or otherwise opinionated post about Ike.

To everyone in South Florida - check your supplies, make sure you have a plan and try to stay calm. That's tough...in the face of tv crawls, misinformation by your family and your co-workers, and long lines everywhere for sometimes unnecessary stuff (what do some people do with all that tee-pee?) ...yes, it can be tough. Stay informed. Stay smart. Panic is a luxury no one can afford right now.

In the worst case scenario, we'll make it. We're prepared. We have time. We can get through Ike. We made it through Wilma...and if you were here for the storm and the days following, you remember what that was like. We made it. We'll do it again.

In the best case scenario, we'll take a deep breath and laugh later. Maybe over a burger and beer.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[hial2]

For any of you who may take an interest on what is going on here on Providenciales, Turks & Caicos......

Planes are flying in to evacuate folks. Air courier service here is bringing in special charter flights to Miami and folks can take their animals.

AA is offerring a one way flight off island to US citizens who hold a valid passport.......neighbors secured a flight to Philadelphia which is all the airline could offer them.

I am afraid to ask what the price of that ticket was...

Gretchen

Wow! I assume you'll be staying..I'll pray for you,your family and the islands..

[cycloneye]

Last visible pic of the day: HURAKAN,you can put some light right?

[HURAKAN]

greels, I hope you guys prepare for the worse and hope for the best. Ike will be close to your area in a few days.

[Deb321]

on the news here in Jax area they said they are afraid the turn north with Ike would be too late and it was too far out to know for sure just a wait and see situation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For any of you who may take an interest on what is going on here on Providenciales, Turks & Caicos......

Planes are flying in to evacuate folks. Air courier service here is bringing in special charter flights to Miami and folks can take their animals.

AA is offerring a one way flight off island to US citizens who hold a valid passport.......neighbors secured a flight to Philadelphia which is all the airline could offer them.

I am afraid to ask what the price of that ticket was...

Gretchen

My prayers are with everyone on the Bahamas and nearby islands that may be affected.

[jinftl]

Unless the storm is forecast to slow down significantly or stall, tomorrow should give us the first glimpse of the general area of concern that could emerge for a potential 2nd landfall as the NHC cone and track will extend into the Wednesday timeframe. Huge margin of error, but interesting to establish a trend nonetheless.

[KWT]

Ike still looking good, personally I'd have stayed with 125kts if I was the NHC but they are the pros.

I think the problem this time is the core is expected to pass very close to the islands throughout the region and if you've got a cat-3/4 the eyewall is going to have very dangerous winds indeed, I just hope it doesn't decide to go crazy and pull an Andrew, a cat-3 bordering 4 like the NHC expects will be severe enough for the islands.