ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Just another note... the Canadian and UKMET also have the system much further west now, with the Canadian similar to the HWRF and GFDL, and the UKMET closer to the GFS with a weak system going in the Yucatan.

Maybe this (weak system) would be the result of Gustav (ugly name) getting
shredded by the islands or shear.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think the 6pm models will be much better now that they can incorporate a real center fix and have a clue on intensity to start with.

I know people are going to react to that.... I know the time will be one of the "Z" times, but they seem to come out around 6:00pm EDT for me.

[Stormcenter]

AFM, you buy the NHC initial track? What's your take on the GFS/Canadian ridge position over Florida for the next 5-6 days? I find it hard to believe Gustav (just upgraded) will track across Cuba toward the ridge. My initial track takes it west from north of Jamaica to the Yucatan, very similar to the 12z GFS. GFDL, I see, has some south of west motion as well but at a much slower clip, allowing it to turn north to the east-central Gulf. Could be moving it too slowly, though.

I talked to Kevin earlier. Gave him my take on it. I think the NHC track is too far east and they are again splitting the consensus until they get a better handle on it. I admit to only taking a look for the first time this morning...so I am a little behind the power curve...but my initial thoughts are a track to the WNW-NW to extreme western Haiti...then turning more west in response to the ridging...moving along the southern coast of Cuba then the western end of Cuba into the Gulf. The trof that tugged it NW is certainly moving to its east already and the ridge is already there.

I know some don't trust the GFS because it doesn't see Gustav...but really...is that important? It sees the ridge. As I have always said: I don't really look at what the GFS or the CMC/EURO/UKMET/NOGAPS does with the SFC features...or even if it picks them up. I look at how it is handling the synoptics...since that is what will steer them in the first place. Given the short term forecast we are speaking of...I buy the ridging over the next couple of days. The GFS initialized well this am.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080825_12.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

5 days from now...who knows. I would like to see a little more model to model consistancy...but I am thinking somewhere along the middle GoM coast. LA-West FL Panhandle. Just a first guess though.

I see you're leaving TX off.....I couldn't resist.

[Sanibel]

Circuits throwing sparks again since most storms on this NW track under Hispaniola get at least a piece of Haiti.

[Ivanhater]

Ok done with class today, and am not liking what I see..especially from AFM!

[hsvwx]

Just another note... the Canadian and UKMET also have the system much further west now, with the Canadian similar to the HWRF and GFDL, and the UKMET closer to the GFS with a weak system going in the Yucatan.

Maybe this (weak system) would be the result of Gustav (ugly name) getting
shredded by the islands or shear.

Even if it were to get caught up in Haiti and Cuba, the western Caribbean would have a lot TCHP for this cyclone to get going again. But if it does hit Cuba, it would need to dive to the wsw for a substantial period of time to hit the central yucatan, and I am not ready to buy that scenario. Stronger storm would lead to a bit further north solution. I really think the 12Z models have caught onto the ridge though. Should be a interesting few days ahead!

[haml8]

AFM, you buy the NHC initial track? What's your take on the GFS/Canadian ridge position over Florida for the next 5-6 days? I find it hard to believe Gustav (just upgraded) will track across Cuba toward the ridge. My initial track takes it west from north of Jamaica to the Yucatan, very similar to the 12z GFS. GFDL, I see, has some south of west motion as well but at a much slower clip, allowing it to turn north to the east-central Gulf. Could be moving it too slowly, though.

I talked to Kevin earlier. Gave him my take on it. I think the NHC track is too far east and they are again splitting the consensus until they get a better handle on it. I admit to only taking a look for the first time this morning...so I am a little behind the power curve...but my initial thoughts are a track to the WNW-NW to extreme western Haiti...then turning more west in response to the ridging...moving along the southern coast of Cuba then the western end of Cuba into the Gulf. The trof that tugged it NW is certainly moving to its east already and the ridge is already there.

I know some don't trust the GFS because it doesn't see Gustav...but really...is that important? It sees the ridge. As I have always said: I don't really look at what the GFS or the CMC/EURO/UKMET/NOGAPS does with the SFC features...or even if it picks them up. I look at how it is handling the synoptics...since that is what will steer them in the first place. Given the short term forecast we are speaking of...I buy the ridging over the next couple of days. The GFS initialized well this am.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080825_12.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

5 days from now...who knows. I would like to see a little more model to model consistancy...but I am thinking somewhere along the middle GoM coast. LA-West FL Panhandle. Just a first guess though.

I see you're leaving TX off.....I couldn't resist.

AFM, did you conciously leave off Texas? or was that a typo?

[storms in NC]

I am glad that the east coast is safe again this year. That is from Ga up. But we sure could use the heavy rains

[Category 5]

I am glad that the east coast is safe again this year. That is from Ga up. But we sure could use the heavy rains

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....... Have you looked at a calendar?

[KWT]

The thing is there is likely to be a weakness at some point and turn this to the north, the thing is after it bends back west how long does it last and can it make it close to the Yucatan before curving up. I think the only way this isn't a threat to the USa down the road is if it stays a good deal further west then progged, maybe close to the CMC track.

[cpdaman]

seems like the storm is under the influence of the weakness pretty good now, and it would not take much to get this thing to keep going NW all the way to 21-22 . since it will be very close to the periphery of the weakness for another 24-36 hours, NO? wouldn't even shock me for the motion to be about 320-325 .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The visible is impressive but the IR is not very impressive as of yet. We will see if it can improve.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, did you conciously leave off Texas? or was that a typo?

Nope....not a typo. Can't say it won't change...but just don't think it is in my "cone" right now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

AFM, did you conciously leave off Texas? or was that a typo?

Nope....not a typo. Can't say it won't change...but just don't think it is in my "cone" right now.

Only an amateur, but I agree 100%.

[tgenius]

Well assuming it goes via the FL Straits.. I think at the very least Miami weather will be unpleasant, Drats! I wanted to use the pool this weekend

[dwg71]

AFM, did you conciously leave off Texas? or was that a typo?

Nope....not a typo. Can't say it won't change...but just don't think it is in my "cone" right now.

Only an amateur, but I agree 100%.

really??? not you Ed!

No, I have to agree Homa to PCB if you ask me.

[KWT]

Well cpdaman the intial motion is estimated at 310...but a stronger storm would actually bend back westward faster based on the current steering.

[ROCK]

AFM, did you conciously leave off Texas? or was that a typo?

Nope....not a typo. Can't say it won't change...but just don't think it is in my "cone" right now.

Only an amateur, but I agree 100%.

Yeah, you would..... heres the latest CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[RL3AO]

I took 30 minutes to read back though the posts. I see we've had quite a crazy morning and afternoon.

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe this equation applies with Gustav:

The stronger the storm gets = The quicker it will turn north.

I have not been able to follow this storm much, so please tell me if I am wrong.