ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking hard and steady I believe I have found a developing LLC near 17.7N 56.0W, if you look closely you can see the swirl in the deeper thunderstorms in this area, and the look of banding features. But then again it may only be my eyes...

Comments welcome

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

I don't see anything there, alienstorm. If you plot the satellite with surface obs on top you'll see that pressures near that blob of convection are a good bit higher than 100 or so miles to the west (1014mb vs 1009-1010mb). I see no evidence of any rotation near 17.7N/56W.

I eyeball something about 16ºN, 57.8ºW, in the lower clouds, just SW of the convection. I wouldn't bet any genuine US currency on it being a surface low, but I met bet Monopoly money or quatloos or something.


But, as mentioned, my eyes are uncalibrated. I do need to get back to the FM 1960 at Veterans Wal-Mart optical shop since my 9 month old did a snatch and grab and twist of my glasses. He is a clever, if sometimes mischievous, little fellow, with cat-like reflexes.

[cheezyWXguy]

We should see it decouple today, with an exposed LLC racing off west, just north of PR. (Pretty much just like 99L previously.)

Well, convection will likely die out, only to reform again overnight. But it looks like tomorrow convection may be more persistent if it does fire up.

[gatorcane]

Another thing to note: "King" TUTT NNE of 92L (the black swirl in the pic below) is definitely moving out to the NE now. That means 92L should be passing by the trough axis (imagine it extending SW from the swirl) throughout the day and conditions will become increasingly favorable for development over the next 24-36 hours or so as Upper-Level winds on the west side of the trough axis are out of the East (good for development). Currently the Upper-Level winds are out of the SW to W (bad for development) and have been for the past several days which has hindered significant development.

Things are coming together....

[artist]

here is what I am seeing. Anyone else?

[Ed Mahmoud]

here is what I am seeing. Anyone else?

Not I, said the pig.


If there is anything, it is on extreme SW corner, partially exposed, of blob,

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, the only spin I see seems to be on the west side of the convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS now shows this system lifting north, parallel to the FL east coast on Monday/Tuesday. This is definitely a different scenario than what was presented in previous runs.

[storms in NC]

gatorcane: Derek was saying yesterday that there was one to the south of 92L.(A TUTT that is.)I have looked for it but I can't see it. Maybe better eyes can.

[Bocadude85]

Could possibly have some type of system making landfall in Florida and running up the coast.. perhaps David like.

[cheezyWXguy]

gatorcane: Derek was saying yesterday that there was one to the south of 92L.(A TUTT that is.)I have looked for it but I can't see it. Maybe better eyes can.

No, he said there was one north of PR...I dont remember anything about a TUTT south of 92

[Wx_Warrior]

Mountain out of a mole hill...real story is what is coming behind it.

[gatorcane]

Mountain out of a mole hill...real story is what is coming behind it.

behind it is interesting but the focus should definitely be on 92L at this time.

92L entering the NHC Western Atlantic picture now with a nice blob of convection associated with it.

[cycloneye]

Go to talking tropics for the latest on that.

Lets get back to the topic.

[storms in NC]

artist I see something at around 17.3 N and 55.5 W

[Vortex]

better organization...

[Gustywind]

The interresting thing i've noticied is that right now numerous future invest would support more moisture, because it seems that invest 92 L and 93 if they develop or not are bringing bring a better support for the others in term of mositure, whereas there's some pockets of dry air....Hope i'm wrong but between Africa and the Lesser Antilles the atmosphere has began to be more humid but (slighlty), maybe another chance or opening windows to see better conditions for the invests during the next days, week(s)....just a subjectif thought with my untrained eyes. We know that others parameters can interfer that....

Concerning 92L i'm a little dubtfull about possible rain showers and scattered tstorms, there's dry air and numerous Cirrus over my head (near my location), testyfying better than needing upper sounding that shear is occuring in vicinity of Guadeloupe. We keep our fingers crossed, hoping some showers but it looks like an utopia, let's see the next few hours how the things will evolve.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Looking further east our next guest very nice and promising twave exiting Africa.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear is always there near Guadeloupe, but seems decreasing to the south and near the huge blob at 57W/58W
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
The little patch of clouds is maybe struggling into dry air....

[gatorcane]

I am also noticing the convection seems more persistent today and new deeper reds are firing -- a sign the pulsing just may be over and its near the point where it may be able to organize.

[cheezyWXguy]

better organization...

Yes convection is persisting and there is some obvious turning. But where the circulation is today doesnt matter. It just needs to keep its identity today. Tomorrow is likely the day when we will see quicker organization of the system, and I think its possible that we could see a tropical depression on friday.

[Gustywind]

Yeah agree Gatorcane should it persists first but agree with your reasoning as usual; we want some water here it's hot and dry, it's awfull with some dry air give it a milky appearence lol.
Hey Gatorcane the huge blob at 57/58W is forecasted to race west near us? I don't have any info on that, i you have some info on the possible movement i will be glad. tkanks.

[Blown Away]

What does JB say about 92L and development? I know he said this was a SFL and points N storm at one point.