ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Derek Ortt]

looks like it is in the process of shooting out an outflow boundary

however, an inflow band is also developing

all in all... little change

[MWatkins]

Well this has thrown all of us and pros for a loop!...

Can't find any circulation today. The convective burst looks like an interaction of the wave with an upper-level trof. Both low and upper level wind shear looks high and increasing. NHC appears to be looking for something to name, though. I think that once the wave axis passes the trof axis later today that the convection will drop off again.

Well, I suppose that's why we have recon? Looking forward to seeing if they confirm your observations.

MW

[Derek Ortt]

if there is a center... it is probably at 11.5N and 57.5W

[x-y-no]

I don't see anything remotely like a closed circulation either. I won't call it dead, but I don't anticipate a TD in the next day at least.

[hurricanefloyd5]

The Florida disturbance sort of reminds me of Bonnie setting up the Gulf for Charley, though a month makes a big difference in potential.

It also remines me of GABREAILE on 9-11-01

[Thunder44]

I think it may have a weak LLC that may not be entirely closed yet. Trinidad had reported light W to SW winds in past two hours:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html

[Ivanhater]

Well there is inflow going somewhere...

[cycloneye]

I don't see anything remotely like a closed circulation either. I won't call it dead, but I don't anticipate a TD in the next day at least.

Lets see if recon finds or not a closed circulation.

[pojo]

this is what the TWO stated...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

[HURAKAN]

This system reminds me of Ernesto's beginnings:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/al ... .001.shtml?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think it may have a weak LLC that may not be entirely closed yet. Trinidad had reported light W to SW winds in past two hours:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html

They also had a light West wind this time roughly yesterday. May be part of some local land/sea breeze interaction. Just saying.

[weatherguru18]

this is what the TWO stated...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

Hey Pojo, which aircraft is going out there today? Miss Piggy or Cermet? OR is it Airforce C-130?

[pojo]

this is what the TWO stated...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

Hey Pojo, which aircraft is going out there today? Miss Piggy or Cermet? OR is it Airforce C-130?

look above

[gatorcane]

[Extremeweatherguy]

This system reminds me of Ernesto's beginnings:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/al ... .001.shtml?

Well lets hope we do not see a repeat of that one. It had one of the craziest track forecasts I can remember seeing. It first looked like a Yucatan/Mexico storm, then we were almost positive it was a northern Gulf storm, but in the end it wound up being a Haiti,Cuba and Florida storm. ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml ). I still remember how crazy S2K got during that event.

[weatherguru18]

this is what the TWO stated...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

Hey Pojo, which aircraft is going out there today? Miss Piggy or Cermet? OR is it Airforce C-130?

Well I meant aircraft.


look above

[Thunder44]

I think it may have a weak LLC that may not be entirely closed yet. Trinidad had reported light W to SW winds in past two hours:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html

They also had a light West wind this time roughly yesterday. May be part of some local land/sea breeze interaction. Just saying.

You may be right. They haven't reported back an 11am ob either.

[Sanibel]

The center should clip Grenada to the north later today. It's kind of obvious this will end the speculation.

[pojo]

Well I meant aircraft.

I know what planes left... but I don't know what aircraft is flying this morning..... it is what plane maintenance gives us that morning.... and if the primary is broke then we go to the spare........

watch for the reports... thats the only way you'll know.

[gatorcane]

deep convection developing NW of the possible LLC again and a comma-like appearance is starting to develop indicative of a weak tropical cyclone (or depression).