ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Canelaw99]

So what happens to 93L if it misses the trough coming down this weekend?

This thread gets a lot longer.

I needed that today...had a rough morning...

[sunnyday]

So, can we say that there is little or no chance for this thing to hit South Florida?

[Derek Ortt]

So, can we say that there is little or no chance for this thing to hit South Florida?

the chances are slim and none and slim left town along with Ike

[Blown Away]

So I guess the NHC is discounting the Nogaps, GFS, Euro, and NAM models, which have TD17 missing this weekends trough.

[Derek Ortt]

So I guess the NHC is discounting the Nogaps, GFS, Euro, and NAM models, which have TD17 missing this weekends trough.

it has been explained many times why those solutions are junk

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The 18Z GFS just out keeps TD 17 well south of Florida and through Central Cuba and out over the Bahamas....

because it makes TD 17 stronger so it can "feel" the big trough. Seems reasonable to me.

It's not coming to Florida

[wyq614]

So I guess the NHC is discounting the Nogaps, GFS, Euro, and NAM models, which have TD17 missing this weekends trough.

it has been explained many times why those solutions are junk

But I think Euro is not a junk, it is something that we can refer to. It has forecasted cyclonegenesis as well as their track successfully many times.

NOGAPS seems to be a junk, and I don't know very much about GFS and NAM.

In China's typhoonbbs, we have a special thread of Euro forecast. For example:

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=21087

I wonder if you have a better alternative other than ECWMF.

[CrazyC83]

Even if it did go to Florida, shear would rip it apart.

[jconsor]

So I guess the NHC is discounting the Nogaps, GFS, Euro, and NAM models, which have TD17 missing this weekends trough.

it has been explained many times why those solutions are junk

Derek - conceptually I agree with you. The models showing a stronger system are more likely to be correct. However, the problem is that the trough will be deamplifying as it moves toward the eastern U.S., and also bumping up against a gradually building ridge between Hispaniola and Bermuda. The 12z GFS shows 30+ kt winds at 200 mb only barely dipping into the far NW Caribbean by Sun before retreating north to about 20N latitude by Mon.

Another thing that makes me uneasy is that before the 18Z GFDL run, several GFDL runs in a row trended slower and slower. The 18z GFDL is faster because it is based off the 18z GFS which has a slightly more amplified trough over the eastern U.S. I would like to see a few more fast GFDL runs before committing to a solution which accelerates TD 17 out of the Caribbean and into the higher latitudes of the north Atlantic.

[Sanibel]

Goodbye 15 storm predictions!


Chilly here in south Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Should be a hurricane within 2 days- deep convection- then hit Cuba-
could create a strong pressure gradient over south florida.

Highs are 10 degrees below normal- January temperatures for highs
here in Central Florida- highs are not getting out of the 60s for the
last 2 days. It is forecasted to warm to the 80s by the weekend...
but this storm should stay well south of Florida.

[Category 5]

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL
AND HWRF TURN THE DEPRESSION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING
CUBA. IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN A LARGE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORMING NEAR
THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS THOSE MODELS FOR THE
TIME BEING. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
ABRUPT WEAKENING.


Why is this reminding me an awful lot of Michelle?

[gatorcane]

So I guess the NHC is discounting the Nogaps, GFS, Euro, and NAM models, which have TD17 missing this weekends trough.

it has been explained many times why those solutions are junk

Derek - conceptually I agree with you. The models showing a stronger system are more likely to be correct. However, the problem is that the trough will be deamplifying as it moves toward the eastern U.S., and also bumping up against a gradually building ridge between Hispaniola and Bermuda. The 12z GFS shows 30+ kt winds at 200 mb only barely dipping into the far NW Caribbean by Sun before retreating north to about 20N latitude by Mon.

Another thing that makes me uneasy is that before the 18Z GFDL run, several GFDL runs in a row trended slower and slower. The 18z GFDL is faster because it is based off the 18z GFS which has a slightly more amplified trough over the eastern U.S. I would like to see a few more fast GFDL runs before committing to a solution which accelerates TD 17 out of the Caribbean and into the higher latitudes of the north Atlantic.

Jconsor interesting thoughts. There is some kind of ridge that should build where you mention as I have seen the models trying to build one and simultaneously deamplify the trough quite a bit as it moves towards the Eastern US. Certainly the NHC does not want to commit to a Cuba-NE out to sea scenario just yet. I think its pretty likely but a few more runs of the GFDL and HWRF later tonight and tomorrow should hopefully help establish that its definitely heading out fast and not going to linger in the NW Caribbean where it can wreak more havoc.

[KWT]

There appears to me to be a fair chance we could see a pretty decent strength hurricane out of this, Michelle from 2001 seems to be a close comprasion right now, maybe further to the east then that system but given the deep convection and very impressive look it has right now i can see possible major.

[wyq614]

Well, we are eager to know which part of Cuba the cyclone would hit. On Sunday, a national conference of the CDR will be held in La Habana.

[Ptarmigan]

Jeff Masters think TD 17 could become a major hurricane, kinda similar to Michelle.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1146

[HurricaneRobert]

The models seem to be shifting south. This is about the right time of year for another wrong-way Lenny.

[Cainer]

TD 17 even looks sort of similar to Michelle:




You know, minus about 110 MPH, an eye, and 70 millibars. But they do looks sort of alike!

[cycloneye]

[Nimbus]

Interesting that they are keeping SF just out of the cone.

Going with the odds if the first trough misses TD17 it still may not gain much latitude before a second trough picks her up.

Nobody is committing to forecast whether this will be a major cane yet.

I remember Mitch and the slow erratic track he took. Our Caribbean neighbors may have a long vigil if the first trough doesn't clean this mess out.