ATL: IKE Discussion

[gatorcane]

INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.


DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

Not good ...

Assuming it goes north of the Leewards, it is days and days and days away from affecting the CONUS, Bahamas, or Bermuda....no worries yet

[tolakram]

[meteorologyman]

Hanna and now this.... This is gr8 news. forecast that bloody cone to a fish please for the love of GOD!

[JtSmarts]

[jlauderdal]

INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.


DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

.

Assuming it goes north of the Leewards, it is days and days and days away from affecting the CONUS, Bahamas, or Bermuda....no worries yet

problem is thats 5 day high confidence forecast unlike hanna's low confidence forecast and there will be strong ridging in place, i dont see anything knocking that ridge down in the next 7 days

[gatorcane]

INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.


DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

.

Assuming it goes north of the Leewards, it is days and days and days away from affecting the CONUS, Bahamas, or Bermuda....no worries yet

problem is thats 5 day high confidence forecast unlike hanna's low confidence forecast and there will be strong ridging in place, i dont see anything knocking that ridge down in the next 7 days

Forecast tracks after 7 days are very low confidence.

[KWT]

Track looks very similar to pre-Hanna, given that i wouldn't be all that surprised if we do get a one-two punch at some point.

For now I think the ridge should hold and that the only uncertainty is whether Hanna makes a weakness as it heads towards the northerly latitudes and towards the jet as TD9 heads very close to the Bahamas...

Yet again another USA threat

[El Nino]

Everyone knows that tropical cyclone forecasting is very difficult, but this one seems to have a 3 days forecast really confident, if not 5 days. After that, I agree that everything con happen, including a bif turn making it fishy.

[Weatherfreak000]

The discussion claims forecast confidence is pretty high...the ridge should judge the storm near the Bahamas...and as a hurricane...what a season.

[fci]

Oh Boy.

Looks like one week from now we are wobble watching Ike just like we are now, and have been; watching Hanna.

Another week of worrying about whether THIS one will impact South Florida and if it will go across and be a GOM'er or turn like Hanna and head towards the Carolinas.

Will South Florida continue to be lucky??

These few weeks have been; and will continue to be; not very fun........

[Swimdude]

It's one thing to have storm after storm after storm.

It's another thing if they keep making landfall.

This season is getting ridiculous.

[gatorcane]

Oh Boy.

Looks like one week from now we are wobble watching Ike just like we are now, and have been; watching Hanna.

Another week of worrying about whether THIS one will impact South Florida and if it will go across and be a GOM'er or turn like Hanna and head towards the Carolinas.

Will South Florida continue to be lucky??

These few weeks have been; and will continue to be; not very fun........

Hey FCI I have some concern with this one but its so far away what are the chances it keeps going west into the Bahamas and through Southern FL?

One thing I am noticing is just how fast it is moving...it covers alot of ocean in 5 days

[jlauderdal]

INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.


DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

.

Assuming it goes north of the Leewards, it is days and days and days away from affecting the CONUS, Bahamas, or Bermuda....no worries yet

problem is thats 5 day high confidence forecast unlike hanna's low confidence forecast and there will be strong ridging in place, i dont see anything knocking that ridge down in the next 7 days

Forecast tracks after 7 days are very low confidence.[/quote]

other than saying 7 day forecasts are low confidence do you see something in the modeling, any model that erodes that ridging, im not saying its hitting florida but i do see it on its track west bound

[apocalypt-flyer]

Yes, it looks like a fast runner down the line and I'm not well happy that they seem to be quite certain that this is almost heading due west for the next few days because that increases the chances of a landfall quite a bit. Let's just hope it'll curve out afterwards or get sheared significantly.

[Brent]

It's one thing to have storm after storm after storm.

It's another thing if they keep making landfall.

This season is getting ridiculous.

Reminds me of 2004...

[fci]

Oh Boy.

Looks like one week from now we are wobble watching Ike just like we are now, and have been; watching Hanna.

Another week of worrying about whether THIS one will impact South Florida and if it will go across and be a GOM'er or turn like Hanna and head towards the Carolinas.

Will South Florida continue to be lucky??

These few weeks have been; and will continue to be; not very fun........

Hey FCI I have some concern with this one but its so far away what are the chances it keeps going west into the Bahamas and through Southern FL?

One thing I am noticing is just how fast it is moving...it covers alot of ocean in 5 days

Gator:
I guess I am a little concerned since the forecast confidence is high to put Ike where Hanna is now.
No ULL to mess with it like Hanna had.
However, there is mention that a weakness might occur down the road when he gets to the Western Atlantic.
Problem is that this is supposed to be a Hurricane well before it gets into vicinity of the Bahamas unlike Hanna.

Bottom line is that I am growing weary of this and here comes another 7-10 days of watching, waiting, conjecture, debate, people I disagree with, nahsayers, danger of me getting suspended if I lose my cool.......

[johngaltfla]

This is why that track looks disturbing to me and any Floridian with sanity:

[jinftl]

Ok, has an area ever been in cones for two different storms at the same time? Not impossible that parts of Florida may be in the Hanna cone (very close in cone) and the Ike cone (maybe the 5-day cone) down the road this week.

More than a forecast for florida my question is more for the storm buffs who may know the answer.

[Portastorm]

Sheesh ... looks like those of us in Florida and the GOM will be going through the "drill" once again in about a week!

[Sirius LeWindy]

This is why that track looks disturbing to me and any Floridian with sanity:

It is not sane to compare every storm to Andrew. Nor is it rational to say that someone is not sane that does not think it reminds them of Andrew. I disagree so I must be insane. Total hogwash. I am staring to think that either you guys are 15 and overly dramatic, or just fire stokers.