Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[HURAKAN]

Burst of convection over center. May increase intensity to hurricane strength by the next advisory.

[KWT]

Its certainly possible, ragged eye feature gone for now replaced with a deep burst of convection, will be interesting to see what Microwave imagery shows.

A very impressive transformation it has to be said, from a sheared system to something just below hurricane status in about 12hrs!

[cycloneye]

This demonstrates why the tropics are a box of surprises many times as things can happen in a hurry in many ways.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUN 2008 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 14:48:13 N Lon : 117:43:25 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 989.9mb/ 65.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.2 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Center Temp : -55.4C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

30/0000 UTC 14.7N 118.1W T3.5/3.5 BORIS -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

906
WHXX01 KMIA 300059
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0059 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080630 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080630 0000 080630 1200 080701 0000 080701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 117.8W 15.0N 119.3W 15.0N 120.6W 14.6N 122.2W
BAMD 14.8N 117.8W 14.9N 120.0W 15.0N 122.3W 15.1N 124.5W
BAMM 14.8N 117.8W 14.8N 119.9W 14.9N 122.0W 14.7N 124.0W
LBAR 14.8N 117.8W 14.9N 120.1W 15.5N 122.6W 16.1N 125.2W
SHIP 60KTS 63KTS 60KTS 58KTS
DSHP 60KTS 63KTS 60KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080702 0000 080703 0000 080704 0000 080705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 123.9W 12.1N 126.7W 9.1N 127.7W 7.4N 128.0W
BAMD 15.2N 126.7W 15.5N 130.3W 15.4N 133.0W 15.0N 135.7W
BAMM 14.4N 125.8W 13.4N 128.4W 11.1N 129.1W 8.9N 128.6W
LBAR 16.7N 127.8W 18.2N 132.1W 19.3N 134.5W 19.3N 136.9W
SHIP 56KTS 51KTS 43KTS 39KTS
DSHP 56KTS 51KTS 43KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 117.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 115.7W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 114.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 300238
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST OR ABOUT 785
MILES...1260 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH BORIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...14.8 N...118.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTPZ42 KNHC 300239
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE RAGGED EYE VISIBLE EARLIER HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY NEW CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH EXCELLENT BANDING ALOFT IS APPARENT IN
AN AMSU PASS AT 0045 UTC. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...A
CIMSS ADT OF 65 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 66 KT. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS NOT CONCLUSIVE BUT SUGGESTS A SMALL
DISLOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER CENTERS...IN LINE WITH THE
MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL...INDICATE A
LITTLE MORE STRENGTHING WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 27C WATERS...AND
THIS GUIDANCE IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD...HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. BORIS IS SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL AND GFS
SOLUTIONS SHOW BORIS TURNING BACK EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SUPPORT A WESTWARD
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. I NOTE THAT THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO
SLOW WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION...AND MAY BE OVERDOING THE
INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IN PARTICULAR TO THE UKMET.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.8N 118.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 14.8N 119.5W 65KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 14.8N 120.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 14.7N 122.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 123.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 14.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Forecast to become a hurricane.

[Chacor]

FKPZ22 KNHC 300239
TCAPZ2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20080630/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: BORIS
NR: 013
PSN: N1448 W11818
MOV: W 09KT
C: 0992HPA
MAX WIND: 060KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 300900 N1448 W11906
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 301500 N1448 W11951
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 302100 N1448 W12033
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 010300 N1446 W12115
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20080630/0900Z

$$

[CrazyC83]

Maybe Boris is/was a hurricane and will be reclassified if it doesn't reach it operationally?

[Chacor]

Maybe Boris is/was a hurricane and will be reclassified if it doesn't reach it operationally?

The ATCF pushed Boris up to 55 kts at 18z from 45 kts, so it's not likely, imo.

[Cyclenall]

This is something I did not expect to see at all...who would have thought that my first forecast had the chance afterall of not busting! Boris the bear doesn't want to be shunted out of the hurricane title. I looked at the AVN loop and noticed a eyewall with the blacks trying to wrap up but failed.

[RattleMan]

Still 60kt and still forecast for 65kt:

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300829
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

BORIS' OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT.
WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION...BORIS STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOW LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING WHILE THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS...HWRF AND
GFDL...BOTH SHOW BORIS INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 80 KT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
LATER TODAY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BORIS BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

BORIS REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS
KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING...275/11. THIS
OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY EAST OF
BORIS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NO LONGER
ABRUPTLY TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST. RATHER...THEY
ESSENTIALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING STATIONARY BEYOND 72 HOURS.
THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEING A LITTLE NORTH AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED IN
THIS DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.9N 119.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 120.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 15.0N 122.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 14.9N 123.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 14.7N 125.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW

[Chacor]

Eye-like feature still on microwave:

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Looks sheared again now. ATCF says 55 kts at 12z.

[Category 5]

Alot less impressive today. No hurricane this time around IMO.

[Chacor]

194
WTPZ42 KNHC 301428
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS ON
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5
AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH BORIS IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO DECREASE SO A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM IS
POSSIBLE. BOTH HWRF AND GFDL INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE
WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL.

BORIS IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. DUE TO THE
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF
BORIS...GLOBAL MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENTS BUT
MAINTAIN BORIS SOUTH OF A RIDGE. THEREFORE...A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.8N 120.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 14.6N 123.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 14.6N 124.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

Another burst.



Also note that the NHC has 4 floaters for the EPAC now.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080630 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080630 1800 080701 0600 080701 1800 080702 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 121.5W 15.1N 123.2W 15.4N 125.3W 15.5N 127.5W
BAMD 14.7N 121.5W 14.8N 124.0W 14.9N 126.5W 15.0N 128.8W
BAMM 14.7N 121.5W 14.9N 123.7W 15.0N 125.9W 14.9N 127.8W
LBAR 14.7N 121.5W 15.0N 123.9W 15.5N 126.5W 16.2N 129.2W
SHIP 55KTS 54KTS 53KTS 51KTS
DSHP 55KTS 54KTS 53KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080702 1800 080703 1800 080704 1800 080705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 129.7W 14.4N 133.8W 12.5N 137.4W 11.3N 141.4W
BAMD 15.2N 130.9W 15.5N 133.9W 14.9N 136.1W 13.1N 139.1W
BAMM 15.0N 129.5W 14.9N 131.3W 13.6N 131.7W 11.8N 131.9W
LBAR 17.0N 131.5W 19.1N 134.9W 20.4N 136.9W 19.8N 139.2W
SHIP 51KTS 48KTS 39KTS 37KTS
DSHP 51KTS 48KTS 39KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 121.5W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 119.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 116.8W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Tropical storm Boris
1pm pst
6-30-2008


Winds 50 knots
Pressure 996 millibars
Movement west-southwest at 260 degree's 10 knots
Location 14.6/121.8


Boris has started to show signs of weaking over the last 6-12 hours. With sab now down to 3.0/3.5t. All in all the "visible" shows that the system still has good shape overall, but the higher clouds have been forced to the south of the LLC again. We call for some weaking as the system is forced west-southwestward over the next 24 hours. But if it where to move south of 13.5 by 30 hours; there is a slight chance this system could find a short period of favorable shear and warm enough waters to restrengthen a little. So this is worth watching. As for yesterday, the system was likely fairly close to hurricane strength, so it is not impossible that it was for a short time. But overall we feel it was just below it.

The shear maps out of cimss shows that the upper level shear has went down to around 5-8 knots across Boris, so the overall upper level environment is not to unfavorable it would seem, but the shear that is there is from the northeast from the Anticyclone to its north...That we expect could be helping to push the convection just south and west of the cirulation. But this will also help the system to move more west or south of west over the next few days. What we believe the problem with Boris is that the upper level shear out of the northwest is "stronger" or more midlevel in nature, this is what we believe is causing the clouds top to be pushed to the south of the cirulation. We are expecting the system to move west-southwestward at 260 degree's for the next 12 hours, followed by 250-255 12-24 hour time frame. This is being caused by the Anticyclone to the north of the system. System should weaken from the current 50 knots to around 45 knots by 24 hours, with maybe a slight chance of restrengthing after 24-30 hours. But if the system fails to move far enough south, it will likely reach cool waters and keep on weaking. This movement will also have something to do with the distrabance to the east.

Forecast
0 50 knots 14.6/121.8
6 45 knots 14.5/122.3
12 45 knots 14.3/122.9
24 45 knots 14.0/123.9
30 50 knots 13.9/125.1
36 45 knots 13.9/125.9