WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[Aslkahuna]

Winds are now WSW at 39 mph with peak gusts of 53 mph at Manila and the pressure is 991
hPa after bottoming out at 990 hPa. With the winds now coming directly off Manila Bay the gusts along the bayshore are certain to be in the 60+ mph range. Old Clark AB is now reporting rain and NNW winds at 25 mph and 997 hPa so they should be seeing some gusty winds now. Once the winds come in off the water at Subic Bay we may see some strong rainsqualls there.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Visible images coming up.

[HURAKAN]

The God of Wind is no match to land. Fengshen continues to weaken.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Looks like the islands busted up its form a little before Manila. Whatever turned it took it down a little in intensity too. Lucky For Manila.

[HURAKAN]

Eye about to come offshore.

[HURAKAN]

Typhoon death toll at 80 in Philippines

MANILA (AP) — Typhoon Fengshen lashed the Philippines for a second day Sunday, leaving at least 80 people dead as it submerged entire communities and capsized a passenger ferry carrying more than 740 passengers and crew.
The death toll included 59 people who drowned in the central province of Iloilo, with another 40 missing, Gov. Neil Tupaz said.

"Almost all the towns are covered by water. It's like an ocean," Tupaz said, adding thousands have been displaced in the province that is home to 1.7 million people.

Villagers found four bodies, children's slippers and life jackets that washed ashore Sunday near the stranded MV Princess of Stars. Port captain Nestor Ponteres said the ferry's owner, Sulpicio Lines, had lost radio contact with the ship and the fate of its passengers was unknown.

The dead, including a man and a woman who bound themselves together, were believed to have been on the vessel, which initially ran aground a few miles (kilometers) off central Sibuyan island Saturday, then capsized, said Mayor Nanette Tansingco of San Fernando on Sibuyan island.

The typhoon lashed the central Philippines for about four hours Saturday, setting off landslides and floods, knocking out power and blowing off roofs.

Packing sustained winds of 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour and gusts of up to 93 mph (150 kph), the typhoon shifted course Sunday to the northwest and battered Manila at dawn, dumping heavy rain on the capital.

Rescue vessels aborted an initial attempt Saturday to get to the 23,824-ton ferry, but efforts resumed in stormy weather Sunday, with one ship approaching the stricken vessel, coast guard chief Vice Admiral Wilfredo Tamayo said.

"A lot of efforts have been done to send off rescue boats, but we really can't get through the very rough weather," Tamayo told The Associated Press.

Tansingco said the bodies were found in three San Fernando villages, adding residents have also found other objects that apparently came from the ferry.

"Many slippers of children were washed ashore the shoreline and found by villagers," Tansingco told DZBB radio.

The ferry — with 626 passengers and 121 crewmembers on board — was "dead in the water" after its engine failed around noon Saturday, Tamayo said.

In southern Maguindanao province, at least 14 people drowned in flash floods Saturday, including 10 swept away from riverside homes, said provincial administrator Norie Unas. Five others were missing.

A 50-year-old man and his 10-year-old grandson were killed when a landslide buried their hillside shanty in Cotabato city Saturday, Mayor Muslimin Sema said. Authorities recovered the body of a farmer, one of three people reported missing in neighboring Cotabato province.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo directed the defense and local government departments to stand by for relief and rescue missions before she left for the United States late Saturday.

Officials said neck-deep flood waters had risen further with a high tide, forcing the evacuation of 5,000 people in Sultan Kudarat township in southern Shariff Kabunsuan province, near Cotabato city.

Officials ordered the evacuation of more than 117,000 people from areas prone to floods and landslides in central Albay province. But many returned home by midday Saturday after the typhoon missed the area.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council reported flooding, landslides and power outages caused by toppled power pylons in many areas in the southern and central Philippines. More than 100 domestic flights were canceled because of the typhoon.

[Aslkahuna]

The center seems to have passed close to old Clark AB which is now getting heavy rain and gusty SSE winds (for Clark, this combination of heavy rain and SSE wind indicates very strong S-SW winds in the lower levels which are deflected due to the nearby mountains). Meanwhile, as expected, Subic is now getting some strong rainsqualls as the winds come in off the SCS with gusts so far to 59 mph and heavy rains. Subic is notorious for such conditions with strong SW flow due either to storms or monsoon surges.

Steve

[KWT]

Center looks like it may be over water or at least very close now, large convective burst now over the center of the system it seems and so once it gets better orgaanised in terms of structure then its likely to strengthen again.

[Chacor]

[P.K.]

Philippines ferry hit by typhoon

Fears are growing for more than 700 people on board a ferry which has capsized in the central Philippines in the wake of Typhoon Fengshen.

The ship has been out of radio contact for more than 24 hours and gale force winds are hampering rescue efforts.

Officials on a nearby island have reported three survivors. They also said four bodies had been recovered.

The Red Cross estimates some 155 people have died across the country in floods and landslides caused by the storm.

Continues here.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 15.8N 119.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 120NM WEST 100NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 18.3N 118.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 240600UTC 21.1N 118.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 250600UTC 24.8N 120.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[CycloneNL]

Red cross says now : 155 deads and 700 missing..

[Wacahootaman]

Dang!

'Few Survivors' As Ferry Sinks In Typhoon
Updated:12:30, Sunday June 22, 2008

Rescuers who have reached a ferry sunk by a typhoon in the Philippines and carrying more than 700 people say they have recovered only three survivors.

The Princess of the Star ran aground after being hit by massive waves caused by typhoon Fengshen.

Winds of up to 120mphElsewhere in the archipelago, around 80 people have died in the wake of the rain and winds of more than 120 miles an hour.

The ferry sank more than a mile from the shore.

Before dawn, some villagers heard warning sirens from the ship, which had 626 passengers and 121 crew on board.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=37e_1214126570

[HURAKAN]

Coming back after a long period of land interaction.

[Ed Mahmoud]

From CNN

The ferry, which can weather rough seas, embarked during "Typhoon signal No. 1," which indicated there was no impending danger, Gordon said.

"But unfortunately the typhoon suddenly turned and it [became] Typhoon signal No. 3, which has now created a really, really bad problem," he said. "After that, I think the ship ran into some problems -- we're not sure about that yet -- and it drifted to seashore, ran aground and eventually capsized."

Poor forecast contributed to the disaster. Senator Gordon, I believe, was mayor of Olongapo back in the 1980s when my ship regularly visited.

[HURAKAN]

Philippines typhoon claims at least 229

Manny Mogato, Manila
June 23, 2008

AT LEAST 229 people are known to have died in Typhoon Fengshen.

The ferocious storm ravaged the central and southern Philippines, Red Cross and civil defence officials said last night, and at least six people were reported missing.

The toll does not include the dead and missing from a ferry that sank in the central Philippines with about 747 people aboard. Four people have been confirmed dead in that accident, and there are four survivors. The rest are unaccounted for.

The central province of Iloilo has suffered the heaviest losses after being hit, with 101 dead, Red Cross chairman Richard Gordon said.

Other deaths were recorded in the neighbouring provinces of Romblon, Cotabato, Antique and Capiz. The civil defence office recorded 26 fatalities in the southern island of Mindanao.

"This toll will definitely rise dramatically," he said, referring to the MV Princess of the Stars ferry, which sank off Sibuyan island in heavy seas yesterday.

Floodwaters in Iloilo rose so swiftly that many residents were forced to take to the rooftops or in the branches of tall trees.

About 35,500 families had to be evacuated. Electricity was knocked out in Iloilo and surrounding areas, and officials do not expect power to be restored for about a week.

Telephone lines and mobile phone towers were down in many areas. There were no immediate reports of deaths or damage in the capital, but the Education Department cancelled classes on all levels in Metro Manila and surrounding areas tomorrow.

The typhoon has continued to move north-west, passing Metropolitan Manila and over the northern half of the main island of Luzon.

Typhoon Fengshen, packing maximum winds of 120 km/h near the centre, is expected to move north-west at 15km/h.

Two men who struggled to shore after the passenger ferry capsized said hundreds of people trapped inside may have died.

The 72 people listed as missing did not include the more than 740 passengers and crew aboard the Princess of Stars.

Mr Gordon said he has asked US authorities for help in finding anyone who might still be alive, and was told "they are going to try very, very hard".

A rescue ship battling huge waves and strong winds reached the ferry late yesterday. There was no sign of survivors, and only four people who were on board were known to have reached shore alive.

"They haven't seen anyone," said a coast guard spokesman, Lieutenant Arman Balilo said. "They're scouring the area. They're studying the direction of the waves to determine where survivors may have drifted."

[Derek Ortt]

looks like the track again shifted to the west

[HURAKAN]

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) O7W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AS IT TRACKED OVER WESTERN LUZON. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A LARGE BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING WESTWARD. HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STORM INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS
AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 994 MB.
B. TY 07W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY
AND IS NOW TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM NORTHERN
LUZON REVEAL EASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AT 20-30 KNOTS INDICATIVE OF
THE PERSISTING STR. TY 07W HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF 20-30 KNOTS OF
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS SHEARED THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION WESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION IS BASED ON A DEFINED LLCC ON THE
221149Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF DVORAKS RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72.
B. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING STR THROUGH 24 BUT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 72. RECENT 500MB ANALYSES
SUPPORT THE WEAKENING STR WITH THE ATICYCLONE CENTER SHIFTING WEST
INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA AND HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 105E HAS
DEEPENED AND SHOULD PROPAGATE TO TAIWAN NEAR TAU 24. THIS WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A WEAKNESS ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT AND
STABLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORE-
CAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET OFFICE TRACKER WHICH SHOWS A
SLOWER TURN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS INCRESED CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
UNDER A GENERALLY MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL WEAKEN DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-
EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH MIDLATITUDE WEST-
ERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON TRACK SPEEDS AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS ARE TOO
SLOW AFTER TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE BOTH LOSING
THE SYSTEM AND ARE DEEMED UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT. TY 07W
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 16.0N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 140NM SOUTHWEST 100NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 19.0N 118.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 241200UTC 22.7N 118.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 251200UTC 26.0N 121.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Not sure why JTWC insists 65 kts given JMA's 70kts and the nice solid convection in the storm.