ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFDL shifts back W to Mobile/Bama/panhandle area

[El Nino]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008090612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Wow ! That's a curve ... and what a monster ! Does anybody know what could be the pressure of such thing ?

[Sabanic]

12Z GFDL shifts back W to Mobile/Bama/panhandle area

Now that could ruin a dern nice weekend

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL ends South of Panhandle.Hello Ivanhater!.

407
WHXX04 KWBC 061728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.9 67.8 255./14.0
6 21.4 69.1 251./13.3
12 21.1 70.3 255./11.3
18 20.9 71.5 260./11.5
24 20.7 72.4 260./ 8.6
30 20.8 73.5 275./10.0
36 20.8 74.6 271./10.1
42 21.0 75.5 280./ 8.8
48 21.4 76.7 287./11.7
54 21.6 77.9 283./11.4
60 22.0 78.8 290./ 9.4
66 22.4 79.9 292./10.5
72 23.1 80.9 303./11.8
78 23.6 81.8 302./ 9.8
84 24.3 82.6 312./ 9.7
90 24.9 83.4 305./ 9.9
96 25.4 84.2 301./ 8.5
102 25.9 84.8 312./ 7.4
108 26.4 85.3 312./ 6.3
114 26.8 85.7 314./ 5.7
120 27.1 86.0 322./ 4.6
126 27.6 86.3 333./ 5.2

[jhpigott]

12Z GFDL shifts back W to Mobile/Bama/panhandle area

i wanna see what the HWRF does with Ike, but it looks like the all clear can just about be sounded in SEFL metro areas . . . in my humble rank amatuer opinion

[El Nino]

Intensity of GFDL ?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Poor Ivanhater! It would be a shame if by the time he got on the board again, the models all shifted to other paths.

Cuz we know he would be all over these models right now!

So, I'll post for him....

!!!!

[Steve H.]

12Z NOGAPS also further west. Unless there is an eastward shift in the models in the next few runs, I think its safe to say the peninsula of Florida (at least the east coast) in pretty much in the clear.

[Brent]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008090612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Wow ! That's a curve ... and what a monster ! Does anybody know what could be the pressure of such thing ?

That's the lowest pressure I've EVER seen on the GFS. ! It's in the mid 970's which for a global model is insane.

[vaffie]

12z CMC is (for what its worth) and it weebles and wobbles to NOLA or just west. Does come very close to SWFLA as it goes thru one of its wobbles.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Major westward trends it seems over the last 24 hours. All the global models have shifted to the west big time--GFS, EURO, CMC, UKMET over the last two runs. The models, which initially had an early cold front, as is typical for this time of year, are delaying and delaying the front, allowing Ike to move more west with each run. At some point they might get the frontal passage timing right and the trend will stabilize, but until they do--and it is still early in the summer for progressive deep cold fronts, expect further westward shifts over the coming runs. The models have all summer underestimated the strength of the ridge, and this seems to be clearly no exception. I am personally leaning towards a Texas/Louisiana landfall as the most likely ultimate outcome. I expect that the best predictor will be the average of the GFS and the EURO, with a bias towards the GFDL/HWRF.

[stormy1970al]

It's a difficult time of year to understand comletely. There have been many different scenarios through the years. Ivan & Frederic both were fairly similar in this area at exactly this same time of year, and both as all are stating took a north-northeast turn . . . . . eventually.

And both hit a certain area around the same dates. Sept 12 and 16. Not saying that Ike will be doing the same thing but just eerie reminders.

[KWT]

968mbs from the GFS actually, sort of suggests the model is seeing the conditions in the gulf for some rapid strengthening.

Even if there is not muh left to Ike by the time it gets back over water in the gulf, if conditions are that good would still be expecting a decent hurricane...

[Bluefrog]

on behalf of ivanhater ...

on behalf of myself ...... oh crap ..

[Sabanic]

on behalf of ivanhater ...

on behalf of myself ...... oh crap ..

and on behalf of me . . . Oh double Crap

[GoneBabyGone]

Damnit, can this thing just do what they initially said it was going to do?

Because if this keeps up its going to hit Louisiana.

We barely have power back from Gustav

[cycloneye]

IH,this 12z GFDL loop is for you.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[shah8]

gotta realize folks, it's a timing issue. That curve up north can easily be *just* offshore, depending on speed of Ike.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF slows it down in the Central GOM:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Weatherfreak000]

The HWRF seems very realistic...moves very much over Cuba and gets in the Central GOM...question is would it miss the Front?

[jhpigott]

The HWRF seems a little suspect in the short term - has Ike traveling in a general WNW direction for the next 30 hours