Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[canetracker]

I guess Fay wants to tour Florida.

[deltadog03]

Man this could be just as bad for GA as FL...If it rolls through the bahamas and parallels FL on the (east coast) coast, then moves into GA...Ouch. BTW, this is looking better now over land...Silly girl!

[SouthFLTropics]

Man this could be just as bad for GA as FL...If it rolls through the bahamas and parallels FL on the (east coast) coast, then moves into GA...Ouch. BTW, this is looking better now over land...Silly girl!

Maybe we are in an alternate universe now where tropical systems thrive over land and fall apart over water...Scary!!! Or, maybe Fay is just bi polar and needs some meds...

[canetracker]

120 hr and Fay continues her tour:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_126l.gif 126hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_132l.gif 132 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_138l.gif 138hr

Florida tour ends and decided to go in a little north into Deltadog territory of Ga.

[Evil Jeremy]

If this GFS run verifies, Fay is going to take her time rolling through the state.

[SouthFLTropics]

If this GFS run verifies, Fay is going to take her time rolling through the state.

Frances all over again...slooooooow mover...

[KWT]

Yeah that would be a pretty mad path for Fay to take if it took the 18z GFS track, right up the coast of the state and probably only steadily weakening as it goes.

Will be interesting to see if the 18z GFDL goes further east closer to the 18z GFS.

[canetracker]

You rellay gotta hate this run. Many parts of Florida will be affected. Keep in mind this is an intermediate run. Lets wait and see the 00z run and what it has in store.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think the models will shift back east as it seem the center is finally seting up right along the North coast of Hispanola.

[lonelymike]

Man this could be just as bad for GA as FL...If it rolls through the bahamas and parallels FL on the (east coast) coast, then moves into GA...Ouch. BTW, this is looking better now over land...Silly girl!

At least your drought would be over with.

[deltadog03]

Well, GFS stalls (12z run) over central GA for nearly 4 or 5 days....

[Wx_Warrior]

Scary...and look at the "bermuda high"...Ridge is going to be tuff...Hope it doesn't stay that way until october....

[SouthFLTropics]

Yeah that would be a pretty mad path for Fay to take if it took the 18z GFS track, right up the coast of the state and probably only steadily weakening as it goes.

Will be interesting to see if the 18z GFDL goes further east closer to the 18z GFS.

An observation that I have noticed is that on some of the model runs it slows Fay down considerably. This is concerning because it will mean more time over VERY warm open water whether it heads for the West Coast, East Coast, or the Panhandle. Ideally to give it less time over open water it would be best if it would run up Cuba's spine and then jump across the straights quickly and come in around Florida City and run the middle of the state. The rainfall would be very beneficial to Lake O and it probably would not have much time to strengthen. I'll be very interested to see where it exits Hispanola at.

SouthFLTropics

[Dean4Storms]

I think the models will shift back east as it seem the center is finally seting up right along the North coast of Hispanola.

Where do you guys keep getting this from, I see no center on the north coast period. NHC had it smack dab in the middle of DR heading west and if anything most of the convection is on the south side of that Island, if anything the center might relocate in the deeper convection there not on the north coast where there is Zilch convection unless you can point me to where this so-called center on the north coast is located please stop the guessing.

[KWT]

Yeah thats what I think is probably best as well SFT...still runs the risk of 1935 type strengthening of course but then again I suppose thats always a slim risk with these systems and if it took the GFS track it'd be too close to land to do anything other then maybe slight strengthening after say a 18hr stint over water.

[Dean4Storms]

Well, GFS stalls (12z run) over central GA for nearly 4 or 5 days....

I saw that and that would be beneficial to the low lake/river levels however it could be bad for flash flooding for sure.

[deltadog03]

Another bad thing...This would help with virtually no shear and an ok upper anticyclone aloft..

[canegrl04]

A local met here in Dallas showed Fay riding along the Fl. west coast and maxing out as a 70mph TS.Seemed alittle too conservative on intensity forecast.She should be able to recover enough to at least become a 100mph cane

[Sirius LeWindy]

Hello,

Why is this run so very different?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

[RL3AO]

Hello,

Why is this run so very different?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

No idea why the ensambles are way over there. Maybe someone could tell us.