ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Chacor]

New recon POD is out for tomorrow:

NOUS42 KNHC 161500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 16 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 03AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/1600Z
D. 13.0N 66.4W
E. 17/1700Z TO 16/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71
A. 18/0600Z
B. AFXXX 04AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/0400Z
D. 13.0N 69.6W
E. 18/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT
18/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[alan1961]

south america bound?..thoughts anyone?

Most likely not. This system is already north of South America, so even if it moved DUE west, it would still miss the continent just to the north...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

More likely than not this will be a Caribbean running storm that will either slam into Mexico/Central America or turn more WNW or NW into the Gulf or northern Islands. It is still too early to tell which scenario is most likely.

Cheers extreme

[cycloneye]

Well this has thrown all of us and pros for a loop!...

Never say never in the tropics.

[Ivanhater]

Well this has thrown all of us and pros for a loop!...

Never say never in the tropics.

Haaa..so true Luis! Exciting day ahead

[gatorcane]

As members know, I was always forecasting development of 94L as soon as I started tracking it. It had too much going for it in my opinion when I looked at the synoptic setup, SSTs, Upper-Level winds etc.
Typically when you have so much vorticity that 94L originally had, its difficult for it not to spin down unless the ULL is horrible which it was not.

Wxman can we bring out the "ITs NOT DEAD BONES"?

NOw we need to turn our attention to the Caribbean islands at this point and see how development of 94L progresses.

[Cryomaniac]

I'm guessing either we will have Cristobal or a TS-strength wave.

Those seem the most likely options to me.

Never say never in the tropics.

I don't

[wxman57]

Well this has thrown all of us and pros for a loop!...

Can't find any circulation today. The convective burst looks like an interaction of the wave with an upper-level trof. Both low and upper level wind shear looks high and increasing. NHC appears to be looking for something to name, though. I think that once the wave axis passes the trof axis later today that the convection will drop off again.

[alienstorm]

In reviewing the high resolution visible pictures I do not see a closed circulation. This is an open wave, also convention is dimisihing as we speak.

[dixiebreeze]

Well this has thrown all of us and pros for a loop!...

Never say never in the tropics.

Sometimes it's fun to be an amateur

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Noles2006]

Still looks like a strong tropical wave to me...

[gatorcane]

NHC appears to be looking for something to name, though..

Do you really think so?

[pojo]

The West wind is the all important wind....

If you get a VDM and the aircraft goes from 1000mb to either 850mb or 700mb you are going to get a drop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It will be great once recon gets out there. We will finally be able to end the closed circulation vs. open wave debate once and for all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmmm, 0Z GFS 500 mb heights suggest a path to the Central Gulf.


The Canadian does not seem to show that. Canadian looks like a path into Central America or the Yucatan, based on heights, Euro looks like a path into Mexico, but a turn to the Northwest that might cause some concern in Deep South Texas is possible.


Therefore, I have no idea where this would go in the longer term, if it even survives.



Disclaimer" "I have no idea" is an unofficial and amateur opinion, and is not endorsed by Storm2K

[abajan]

To my untrained eye, this loop shows 94L becoming better organized.

Hmm... Perhaps my "untrained" eye isn't so bad after all!

Anyway, as I type there hasn't been anything spectacular at my locale. Some showers (mostly light) and fresh breezes from time to time. I'll keep you guys updated of any major changes.

[Sanibel]

The Florida disturbance sort of reminds me of Bonnie setting up the Gulf for Charley, though a month makes a big difference in potential.

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB like its chances:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Steve H.]

It still doesn't look right to me. But that doesn't mean it won't develop

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still staring at my home cooked NASA brand visible loop, and while it looks cool, I don't see West to East motion of low cloud elements South of apparent 'center' of this.