ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

GFS also had a much weaker Ike in the beginning of the model run and exiting off Cuba very weak. It did strengthen it significantly in the gulf though. The question is...had it had Ike at the proper intensity during the midterm part of the run, what would that have doen to the long term solution?

[ROCK]

You have to remember, this is not august this septemeber.....IMO the chances of a cold front coming down to pick this is up should be fairly good. GFS is finally showing/keeping a good system now. GFS also showing a nice cold front coming down to pick this up and push it into or just near mobile. Seems very reasonable to me.

it was August 7 days ago....

[rainman]

12z GFS solution seems plausible.

It has a cold front making all the way to the texas coast by Late Friday Night and soon there after ike turns NE and goes into the Florida Panhandle. The 00Z Euro also has the front but is much more faster with Ike and by that time is too late to turn it and goes into Brownsville. In my opinion Euro is way to fast with this system.

[Weatherfreak000]

You have to remember, this is not august this septemeber.....IMO the chances of a cold front coming down to pick this is up should be fairly good. GFS is finally showing/keeping a good system now. GFS also showing a nice cold front coming down to pick this up and push it into or just near mobile. Seems very reasonable to me.

it was August 7 days ago....

True...lol...but it will be near Mid-September when this is in the GOM...so that logic doesn't apply very well. But then again...Rita comes to mind so it's not impossible.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If Ike slows down at all, it increases the chance of that NE turn at the end. GFS calls for a big stall in the Gulf already. If it also goes more to teh south fo forecast points, that could project out to a delay in getting in to the gulf as well, as it woul dneed to make a wider loop to get there.

I'm sure I'm just getting myself all worked up...but this was the storm name that gave me pause in the beginning of the year when I looked them over. I've been having hurricane dreams too lately. -not of a storm exactly, but of trying to reconcile my new college course dates and them conflicting with a cruise I am supposed to take in December. In my dream, I have 2 weeks of classes to "make up" that get shiften into December becasue of the effects on storm during the first term (now through 1st week october).

[deltadog03]

LOL...Throw me a bone huh....LOL I understand that for sure.. We are just into SEP., but things are starting to get to that transition period for fall. ( I guess that was my point )

[ROCK]

12z GFS solution seems plausible.

It has a cold front making all the way to the texas coast by Late Friday Night and soon there after ike turns NE and goes into the Florida Panhandle. The 00Z Euro also has the front but is much more faster with Ike and by that time is too late to turn it and goes into Brownsville. In my opinion Euro is way to fast with this system.

good be to fast with the front...AFD still not totally sure of the FROPA next friday though.....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

It's exactly this transition period when Tampa is most at risk from "the big one". Earlier in the season, it is near impossible to get a recurve of a strong storm into the western part of the state, and most home growns are weaker in early season. Later in the season, they tend to be much weaker storms too as the shear tends to be stronger and water temps start to fall.

[ROCK]

LOL...Throw me a bone huh....LOL I understand that for sure.. We are just into SEP., but things are starting to get to that transition period for fall. ( I guess that was my point )

giving you some grief there Delta..... I think recurve into FL seems a very REAL possibility.....if the EURO jumps here in a few hours then I will as well......worst case scenario as Ike would transverse the LC and roid up before making landfall somewhere in FL......bad deal for someone....

[Frank2]

Ike's a dipper, that's for sure...

It's been a blessing for the US, but, the islands having been having a very hard time this year...

[Sabanic]

It's a difficult time of year to understand comletely. There have been many different scenarios through the years. Ivan & Frederic both were fairly similar in this area at exactly this same time of year, and both as all are stating took a north-northeast turn . . . . . eventually.

[rainman]

12z GFS solution seems plausible.

It has a cold front making all the way to the texas coast by Late Friday Night and soon there after ike turns NE and goes into the Florida Panhandle. The 00Z Euro also has the front but is much more faster with Ike and by that time is too late to turn it and goes into Brownsville. In my opinion Euro is way to fast with this system.

good be to fast with the front...AFD still not totally sure of the FROPA next friday though.....

models are beginning to be in good agreement and it is that time of the year where the "weak" fronts begin to make it to the coast

[KWT]

GFS looks reasonable this run with the idea of the weakness lifting this out to the NE though it did overdo the last weakness as well...

Track for the short term a little too far north I'd guess but the idea and general evolution looks good and the other thing to note is the model does strengthen Ike in the gulf quite a bit.

[Blown Away]

The models trending N and E makes me really concerned about the Keys. If Ike misses Cuba just to the N it could be a major disaster for the Keys.

[cape_escape]

If Ike slows down at all, it increases the chance of that NE turn at the end. GFS calls for a big stall in the Gulf already. If it also goes more to teh south fo forecast points, that could project out to a delay in getting in to the gulf as well, as it woul dneed to make a wider loop to get there.

I'm sure I'm just getting myself all worked up...but this was the storm name that gave me pause in the beginning of the year when I looked them over. I've been having hurricane dreams too lately. -not of a storm exactly, but of trying to reconcile my new college course dates and them conflicting with a cruise I am supposed to take in December. In my dream, I have 2 weeks of classes to "make up" that get shiften into December becasue of the effects on storm during the first term (now through 1st week october).

So, if there is a delay, and it does take a wider loop, would that make it more likely Ike would come in on the West coast of Fla?

Ya, for some reason this storm caught my attention much faster than any of the others as well. Funny, I had a hurricane dream last week too...lol Never in my life I Have had a dream about a hurricane!

[Dean4Storms]

I don't like that GFS run tat tall.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If Ike slows down at all, it increases the chance of that NE turn at the end. GFS calls for a big stall in the Gulf already. If it also goes more to teh south fo forecast points, that could project out to a delay in getting in to the gulf as well, as it woul dneed to make a wider loop to get there.

I'm sure I'm just getting myself all worked up...but this was the storm name that gave me pause in the beginning of the year when I looked them over. I've been having hurricane dreams too lately. -not of a storm exactly, but of trying to reconcile my new college course dates and them conflicting with a cruise I am supposed to take in December. In my dream, I have 2 weeks of classes to "make up" that get shiften into December becasue of the effects on storm during the first term (now through 1st week october).

So, if there is a delay, and it does take a wider loop, would that make it more likely Ike would come in on the West coast of Fla?

Ya, for some reason this storm caught my attention much faster than any of the others as well. Funny, I had a hurricane dream last week too...lol Never in my life I Have had a dream about a hurricane!

In my personal opinion (and I'm no pro, so it isn't worth much!), the slower it goes, the more time a front could have to appear and cause it to go into west coast florida vs. just a meander to the north like what other models have hinted at that rely solely on an opening in the ridge to develop.

[Blown Away]

Does the Bamm spread indicate a deeper/stronger storm goes more poleward and a shallower/weaker storm goes more W?

[deltadog03]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SWFLA_CANE]

12z CMC is (for what its worth) and it weebles and wobbles to NOLA or just west. Does come very close to SWFLA as it goes thru one of its wobbles.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation