ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Can somebody please post the link to the live recon data? Thanks.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt

[DESTRUCTION5]

Closed Wall..I expect Cane warnings for hati/DR coming soon...

[CrazyC83]

Closed Wall..I expect Cane warnings for hati/DR coming soon...

Yep, the special advisory will likely turn the TS warnings into hurricane warnings, and the TS watches into hurricane watches. (Not sure if new watches on the sides are warranted, it depends on the wind field size).

[Frank2]

Per Derek's comment:

"...it could be a day away from killing thousands in Haiti!"

and Treasure Island's complaint:

"...this better not rain out my holiday weekend."

- that's the difference between life here and in other countries...

[Stormcenter]

JB says..

BTW the models will be clueless here as they have lousy initialization and the overall pattern is tough with the players on the field

Ouch that hurt....but all kidding aside he does have a point.
You can't just go by what a couple of models are showing as
what the pattern will be in several days and come to one conclusion.
We all know they (patterns) do change day by day. Hey I'm covering all bases
here. I really don't buy into any of the scenarios at this early stage.

[93superstorm]

Very deep convection now north and south of the center

[CrazyC83]

A hurricane by 5 pm is plausible right now. This could be REALLY bad for Hispaniola...

[Air Force Met]

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

The only reason the cone is covering that area is because the track is sitting at 22.5/78. As we have discussed so many times...the cone depends on the track...and is not some seperate forecast that changes. It is always the same size.

[x-y-no]

Enough. Back on topic. You all know the rules.

[KWT]

The only good thing is with an eye pretty obvious we are going to get a very good idea of its direction.

Sadly we are likely seeing RI now...

[CrazyC83]

Still awaiting the 2(ish) pm advisory. The discussion could be quite interesting.

[haml8]

Anyone want to take a stab at the winds on the NE quadrant when they fly the alpha pattern?

[CrazyC83]

733 WTNT62 KNHC 251803 TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

[alienstorm]

As I mentioned earlier strong TS or Minimal Hurricane and in all likelihood it is a Hurricane. Also, the core is now develop so the the stage is set for some intensification to commence rapidly. We finally have a system that is vertically stacked...

[Sanibel]

The only good thing is with an eye pretty obvious we are going to get a very good idea of its direction.

Satellite loop is showing the possibility that the upper image is making the system look more NW than it actually is. Watch for reconnaissance to show this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still awaiting the 2(ish) pm advisory. The discussion could be quite interesting.

Don't usually have a discussion on the intermediates, but today may be different.

[hiflyer]

Derek...my apologies for the misspelling...left handed...always had trouble...grin

Further...almost any rain event can mean serious issues in Haiti due to the severe deforestation that has been done.....I was not suggesting that they should be ignored by any means.

And the nhc just did the update so this is going to get busy fast I suspect....

[weatherguru18]

TWC confirms Gustav. Winds set at 60 mph

[oyster_reef]

Still awaiting the 2(ish) pm advisory. The discussion could be quite interesting.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Steve]

>>Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I didn't see it as bearish. I think they were just looking for concurrence from recon which was already heading out there. JMO.

Steve