ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cycloneye]

I woulnt be surprised if recon finds a Tropical Storm instead of a TD.I base this opinion on the 38 mph gust reported in Barbados.

[WmE]

So, it now becomes a question of what recon will find, TD3 or Cristobal...

Or A open Wave..

Yep. let's see if recon can find a closed circulation before we get into this.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing either we will have Cristobal or a TS-strength wave.

[gatorcane]

So, it now becomes a question of what recon will find, TD3 or Cristobal...

Or A open Wave..

DESTRUCTION it may be time to accept the fact it could AT LEAST be a TD. Personally I wish it would stay a wave because I don't particularly care for tropical development in the Caribbean at all

[Extremeweatherguy]

south america bound?..thoughts anyone?

Most likely not. This system is already north of South America, so even if it moved DUE west, it would still miss the continent just to the north...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

More likely than not this will be a Caribbean running storm that will either slam into Mexico/Central America or turn more WNW or NW into the Gulf or northern Islands. It is still too early to tell which scenario is most likely.

BTW, here is a short list of past storms to have entered the Caribbean in the same general vicinity as 94L. As you can clearly see from these examples, the end result is highly variable...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Denn ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ivan_2004_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Felix_2007_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Char ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dean_2007_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Lili_2002_track.png

[NDG]

Needs to be a W wind..

DESTRUCTION, NHC just issued a special tropical disturbance statement already. I suspect they are noting these strong winds as part of the reason.

Well im just saying upgrading ona East wind would be crazy based on the fact that that probably happens daily in the Islands..LOL

For you to say it happens daily is incorrect, to say that it is normal during the passage of a strong tropical wave is more appropriate, IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

So, it now becomes a question of what recon will find, TD3 or Cristobal...

Or A open Wave..

DESTRUCTION it may be time to accept the fact it could AT LEAST be a TD

i accept nothing till that plane finds a West wind...Ive been here long enought to know that...SO have you..

[bvigal]

Is recon plane in St. Croix or Barbados?

[OuterBanker]

Ok GOMers, this will be your concern early next week. Probably west of PR this weekend, and below island. It has survived the shear and if it keeps tracking south of the islands it will be entering favorable conditions. If this tracks south of Haiti/DR look out. Could run the gap into the GOM. Could be the first real concern for the CONUS, and of course the islands.

[Sanibel]

Grenada should get a land reading of that west wind later today. I put the center a little west of 57W moving on a west track to clip north Grenada.

[cycloneye]

Personally I wish it would stay a wave because I don't particularly care for tropical development in the Caribbean at all

Why you dont care?

[weatherguru18]

I think it's high time that a lot of you place your order for crow...including some of the pro mets who were SO SURE this was dead. LOL (no disrespect, just having fun)

[cycloneye]

Is recon plane in St. Croix or Barbados?

St Croix

[LeeJet]

So, it now becomes a question of what recon will find, TD3 or Cristobal...

Or A open Wave..

DESTRUCTION it may be time to accept the fact it could AT LEAST be a TD. Personally I wish it would stay a wave because I don't particularly care for tropical development in the Caribbean at all

Yeah right. lol.

If the tropics were finance, you would be a big Bull. And Ortt would be the big Bear.

[gatorcane]

Personally I wish it would stay a wave because I don't particularly care for tropical development in the Caribbean at all

Why you dont care?

Luis, "particularly don't care for" meaning "don't want there to be" (its a bit of slang sorry for the confusion)

[NDG]

Or A open Wave..

DESTRUCTION it may be time to accept the fact it could AT LEAST be a TD

i accept nothing till that plane finds a West wind...Ive been here long enought to know that...SO have you..

W wind on sat loop is very evident by me, just has to be confirmed by recon as well as a LLC.

[Chacor]

Personally I wish it would stay a wave because I don't particularly care for tropical development in the Caribbean at all

Why you dont care?

You're misreading it, Luis.

He's saying he doesn't want tropical development in the Carib. Therefore he doesn't care for any development. Not he doesn't care about the system.

[bvigal]

Good, they will be able to TAKE OFF! Cheers, Luis!!

[Chacor]

So, it now becomes a question of what recon will find, TD3 or Cristobal...

Or A open Wave..

To that end...I give this an 80% chance of being upgraded to a tropical storm at 4pm..15% chance of being upgraded to a depression...and only a 5% chance this is nothing more than an open wave with scattered convection.

Welcome to S2K. You need a disclaimer with that. It's found at the top of every page in this forum.

[Ivanhater]

Well this has thrown all of us and pros for a loop!...