ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[miamijaaz]

They didn't shift it east because they don't know which set of models is correct:

"Dynamical models are split into two camps at this time...with some models showing the shortwave passing sufficiently far to the north to keep Ike moving west-northwestward...while other models show Ike turning northward into the weakness. It is way too early to commit to either one of these extended range solutions...and thus the new official forecast is very close to the previous advisory."

Thing is, they had no issues in immediately shifting it south and west significantly when the model consensus started to go that way. The next set of model runs will be crucial, IMO.

[MortisFL]

How could they not shift back east wit hall these new model runs?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

NHC is way W of the "consensus"

Because they are looking for a trend. And to adjust a track far east from a far west track doesnt make much sense until it starts to hold. If the next run of models are still in the same spot, then a slight adjustment east will be needed.

[ericinmia]

How could they not shift back east wit hall these new model runs?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

NHC is way W of the "consensus"

LOL not sure if your joking or not, but i'm seeing the Hannah Plot on the Ike page. Too far west by those standards for sure!

LOL..click on Storm 09

Yeah my brain finally kicked in... Sorry about that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFS rollin in...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

GFS is either having it severly impacted by Cuba or it is underestimating teh strength this run again.

[SouthFLTropics]

The model runs to really watch will be tonights 00z runs. I would think that they should be able to clear up some of these "split camp" issues. Tonights runs should have the upper air data from the G-IV jet placed into them so they will have more accurate data to work off of.

SFT

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Yes, I agree. Tonight's upper air data will hopefully bring about more concensus.

Question...after today's...when is the next flight for that data?

I hate being in the coin toss cone...either we'll get nothing or potentially have a major coming at us on Thursday.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hasn't finished its run yet to show the critical turn, but by looking at the little symbols, it appears to be showing the developing weakness that could split the high to the north of the storm, which it places at nw part fo cuba....still watching intently for next few frames...

[Sanibel]

I'm starting to lean with GOM-west with the latest GFS. This will be a good test here between GFDL and GFS.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hate to say it, but: If Ike goes across Cuba that is bad news for them, but could be good news for the main land.

[StormWarning1]

Yes, I agree. Tonight's upper air data will hopefully bring about more concensus.

Question...after today's...when is the next flight for that data?

I hate being in the coin toss cone...either we'll get nothing or potentially have a major coming at us on Thursday.

The upper air data might resolve some near term movements of Ike but not anything that is going to happen 5-7 days out over the Gulf. Biggest issue will be the strength of the midwest trough at that time.
Probably going to be Monday night before that comes into better agreement.

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS is heading towards the WGOM...maybe another fun slingshot run?


GFS couldn't forecast it's way out of a cardboard box with Ike...

[bigdan33]

After 72hrs on the 12Z gfs it looks to be coming off the north coast of Cuba heading north or northwest,Im a amature so forgive me if im wrong.

[StormWarning1]

Sitting in the North Central Gulf at 144 hours. Big shift West compared to 6z 150 hour point.

[Blown Away]

Looks like a significant east shift to the GFS, looks NE towards Big Bend.

[Weatherfreak000]

Mobile/FL Panhandle seems to be landfall on this GFS. Very interesting shift.

[deltadog03]

You have to remember, this is not august this septemeber.....IMO the chances of a cold front coming down to pick this is up should be fairly good. GFS is finally showing/keeping a good system now. GFS also showing a nice cold front coming down to pick this up and push it into or just near mobile. Seems very reasonable to me.

[Steve H.]

I think the Stall in the GOM will eventually drive Ike to the NE, maybe even to the big bend. This is definitely is not a western GOM solution.

[Thunder44]

Hate to say it, but: If Ike goes across Cuba that is bad news for them, but could be good news for the main land.

The GFS really intensifies this storm when it moves into the GOM. Unlike what it did to Gustav. Of course, it's still a long ways out.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS showed the shortwave this time to but it washed out..past GFS runs it was much stronger..