ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

I find it doubtful that such a massive blocking ridge will develop over Florida and the GOM given how Fay is in the picture...and notice Fay is moving north now....that is not what I would expect to see if there was massive ridging building in.

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

If your longing for excitement and adventure, you can join the military. Otherwise stop arguing with the reasoning of pro mets and models. U did the same thing with Fay, IT LIKELY IS NOT GOING TO YOUR HOUSE.

gatorcane had a valid question. If you read the NHC discussion carefully you'll see that they really are not confident in their track at all. The fact that they slow it to 2.5 kts from day 4 to day 5 is a severe hedge until they can look at it more closely. I'm sure they see the ridge over Florida. Will be interesting to see their 4pm update after they examine the 12Z model data and 12Z upper air analysis.

[CronkPSU]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I'm wondering if this means that the NHC will never declare another TS without first getting a plane inside it.

That is what it seems like [/quote]

Yeah... That would be upsetting.[/quote]

depends, maybe it will get recon out there to developing storms faster...that would be a good thing

[KWT]

Also no doubt this is a decent TS, flight level winds would easily support 50kts at the surface, maybe even a little higher depending on the reduction value...I wonder if this is going to undertake RI soon given the current conditions down there?

[CrazyC83]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I'm wondering if this means that the NHC will never declare another TS without first getting a plane inside it.

That is what it seems like

Yeah... That would be upsetting.[/quote]

depends, maybe it will get recon out there to developing storms faster...that would be a good thing[/quote]

I doubt they would have for Bertha though...sometimes they have to guess, after all there aren't any planes out in Cape Verde or the Azores...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I find it doubtful that such a massive blocking ridge will develop over Florida and the GOM given how Fay is in the picture...and notice Fay is moving north now....that is not what I would expect to see if there was massive ridging building in.

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

If your longing for excitement and adventure, you can join the military. Otherwise stop arguing with the reasoning of pro mets and models. U did the same thing with Fay, IT LIKELY IS NOT GOING TO YOUR HOUSE.

It's called discussion, not argument. Discussion is the purpose of this forum. The models are all
over the place, and no one is wishycasting. I agree with gatorcane's reasoning. And I
don't think someone who went through Wilma wants another storm, so that "not going
to your house" remark is uncalled for.

[CrazyC83]

I'd expect the 2 pm advisory to be a bit late as it should be a special advisory around 2:15 pm.

[hiflyer]

While the immediate data from the flight says we have a TS wouldn't the NHC hold back just a couple hours to get a more complete set of data rather than possibly two updates before the 5pm on a system fairly much out to sea??

On a side note after staring at the vapor loops for the past hour my personal opinion is that it stays down and crosses Jamaica and comes up over Cuba similar to Fay's track....but that is just me.

Saw a small radar image that looked like out of Hispaniola pointing south....is there such a site and if so what is the URL???

[HURAKAN]

I'd expect the 2 pm advisory to be a bit late as it should be a special advisory around 2:15 pm.

Hurricane Watches/Warnings may also be needed.

[Derek Ortt]

75% is used for 850mb

50KT is a good blend of flight level and SFMR

[DESTRUCTION5]

JB says..

BTW the models will be clueless here as they have lousy initialization and the overall pattern is tough with the players on the field

[CrazyC83]

I'd expect the 2 pm advisory to be a bit late as it should be a special advisory around 2:15 pm.

Hurricane Watches/Warnings may also be needed.

I'd expect them to be issued as well as this will have a big impact on the intensity forecasts.

[MWatkins]

I think people need to back off of the NHC...again...this was communicated in the discussion.

OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

They knew going in they were probably too low. I would love to see how the people that know so much about these systems put a verifiable forecast out there for TC genesis and track. Love to see it.

I don't always agree with Derek but the man puts it out there and verifies every single forecast. Have to respect that.

What I don't respect is all of the sniping that goes on at the NHC by people who have not demonstrated they could do any better.

It's a disservice to all of the people reading this board to get legit information IMHO.

It's easy to second guess when the only consequence is deleting your own post when you mess up...

MW

[Derek Ortt]

this system is not "fairly much out to sea"

it could be a day away from killing thousands in Haiti!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This thing better not rain out my holiday weekend.

[KWT]

hiflyer, firstly some models show this bending back closer to the west, this going out to sea is not the only option...secondly there is a little matter of a pretty poor place called Hispaniola that at the very least a strong TS will hit and if it does make landfall then we are going to see some huge issues...

[Sanibel]

Interesting: If you look at HURAKAN'S visible loop on the last page the sharp surface eye pulls south under the upper eye, meaning either the surface eye has just tucked under a ridge and is more west or the upper eye has been sheared N. Check it out.

[Cryomaniac]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I'm wondering if this means that the NHC will never declare another TS without first getting a plane inside it.

That is what it seems like

What about storms in the E ATL that are too far away to send planes.

[weatherguru18]

Can somebody please post the link to the live recon data? Thanks.

[CrazyC83]

Recon confirms CLOSED eyewall...rapid deepening underway I think.

[alienstorm]

While the immediate data from the flight says we have a TS wouldn't the NHC hold back just a couple hours to get a more complete set of data rather than possibly two updates before the 5pm on a system fairly much out to sea??

On a side note after staring at the vapor loops for the past hour my personal opinion is that it stays down and crosses Jamaica and comes up over Cuba similar to Fay's track....but that is just me.

Saw a small radar image that looked like out of Hispaniola pointing south....is there such a site and if so what is the URL???

http://www.onamet.gov.do/doppler/doppler300-a.gif