ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Category 5]

Strong Tropical Storm, Special Advisory coming?

[MWatkins]

The NHC mentions in their forecast this is a SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE forecast. Meaning, they arr taking the middle road between two forecast scenarios, one being a weaker initial ridge with TD7/Gustav east of Florida, the other being a stronger initial ridge and a track into the SE Gulf of Mexico

This is why people, including professional and on-camera meteorologists should take care and read the forecast discussions.

It is frustrating to see so many representing the NHC forecast as a deterministic line...when in fact subsequent forecasts will gravitate toward one scenario or the other.

I really do think people, including pro mets, spend too much time on the line and not enough time completely understanding the NHC forecast product for what it is...

The view will get clearer, but right now the model spread is significant.

MW

[CrazyC83]

Strong Tropical Storm, Special Advisory coming?

Probably in the next 20 minutes or so after the vortex message comes out.

[ConvergenceZone]

the convection looks better than the convection looked EVER with FAY

[Dean4Storms]

The NHC mentions in their forecast this is a SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE forecast. Meaning, they arr taking the middle road between two forecast scenarios, one being a weaker initial ridge with TD7/Gustav east of Florida, the other being a stronger initial ridge and a track into the SE Gulf of Mexico

This is why people, including professional and on-camera meteorologists should take care and read the forecast discussions.

It is frustrating to see so many representing the NHC forecast as a deterministic line...when in fact subsequent forecasts will gravitate toward one scenario or the other.

I really do think people, including pro mets, spend too much time on the line and not enough time completely understanding the NHC forecast product for what it is...

The view will get clearer, but right now the model spread is significant.

MW

So true.

[wxman57]

I find it doubtful that such a massive blocking ridge will develop over Florida and the GOM given how Fay is in the picture...and notice Fay is moving north now....that is not what I would expect to see if there was massive ridging building in.

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

gatorcane, the ridge isn't forecast to develop there, the models initialize with it there NOW, both Canadian and GFS. And I plotted heights to every 5 meters on the graphic rather than the typical 60 meters.. That makes the ridge appear to be more massive. But there is a ridge there now.

[Brent]

the convection looks better than the convection looked EVER with FAY

LOL, this storm is already better than Fay.

[CrazyC83]

The factor from 925mb is 85%, correct? That would support a 55 kt intensity. Otherwise, 50 kt is probably the current intensity.

[lamsalfl]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

[Just Joshing You]

The plane just got into the storm fairly recently.. hasn't even completed a pass yet. Chances are they will find higher FL Winds. maybe a 70kt+

[Comanche]

I find it doubtful that such a massive blocking ridge will develop over Florida and the GOM given how Fay is in the picture...and notice Fay is moving north now....that is not what I would expect to see if there was massive ridging building in.

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

If your longing for excitement and adventure, you can join the military. Otherwise stop arguing with the reasoning of pro mets and models. U did the same thing with Fay, IT LIKELY IS NOT GOING TO YOUR HOUSE.

[wxman57]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I'm wondering if this means that the NHC will never declare another TS without first getting a plane inside it.

[Stormcenter]

Here's last night's Canadian run showing the 500mb heights valid 7pm CDT Tuesday. Again, note the similarity to the GFS forecast. High over FL/Bahamas. Either Gustav has to shoot off to the N-NNE fast or it would have to track west or even south of west from near Haiti. The Canadian holds the ridge over FL, the Bahamas, and the eastern Gulf through late this week.

If this holds true then final landfall would be somewhere in Mexico (Yucatan). Correct?

No

Then where would it be?

[Just Joshing You]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I'm wondering if this means that the NHC will never declare another TS without first getting a plane inside it.

That is what it seems like

[CrazyC83]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I'm wondering if this means that the NHC will never declare another TS without first getting a plane inside it.

If no plane was expected, then it would have likely been declared TS Gustav as 11 am. They had inconclusive data so I could see why they were conservative.

[weatherguru18]

Would somebody be kind enough to post the link to the live recon data? I just got a new mac and I need to resave all my bookmarks. Thanks in advance!

[Swimdude]

Why was the nhc so bearish with the intensity forecast at 11am?

I'm wondering if this means that the NHC will never declare another TS without first getting a plane inside it.

That is what it seems like

Yeah... That would be upsetting.

[93superstorm]

The GFDL and HWRF has it going into the middle of GOM

[KWT]

Well the track would bend west with that set-up but probably only to the WNW, yet again the spine of Cuba may get a bit of a beating.

[HURAKAN]