ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Sanibel]

Hi all, I live in Trinidad, what can we expect with invest 94L? Thanks.

My opinion is strictly that of an internet poster and not educated or official or related to Storm2k in any way.


You should look at your national weather service's information in any storm. But as a casual poster I would say this should pass to your north as a tropical storm at most and you should just have low winds and rain.

[hurricanefloyd5]

well you could get a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm maybe.. You could get a TS WATCH/WARNING is this thing forms.

Please don't give out false information.

I am not and I used the word COULD and I never said it would happen. It's not faulse info if I say could.

[RL3AO]

With the forward speed and low latitude it's looking pretty good for gulf. I just don't see this being pulled much to the north. Thoughts?

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I don't see this surviving two days if it forms.

[jusjas]

Thanks all, Jas from Trinidad

[Extremeweatherguy]

With the forward speed and low latitude it's looking pretty good for gulf. I just don't see this being pulled much to the north. Thoughts?

Plenty of past storms have made it into the Gulf from 94L's current position. At this point though, it is hard to say what this one in particular will do. Let's wait and see if the system develops first before speculating too much about the future path.

[gatorcane]

I don't see this surviving two days if it forms.

What is your reason for that statement? Look at the wind shear tendency. Conditions are marginal for development all the way across the Caribbean, and that pocket of higher shear may not be there in 3-4 days when it passes it. I'd say its got a shot of lasting longer than you think In fact conditions improve for development within the 2-3 day timeframe in the Eastern Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

I knew not to count this thing out yesterday...looks like a whole new system and this cinvection has been very persistent..I think Bones came out to early

[Sanibel]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Man, this thing just doesn't want to die. When can we expect recon to arrive?

[bvigal]

Before drawing any conclusions from pressure changes or wind speeds, take a look at location history. I compile eastern caribbean airport, buoy, and ship data every morning, 365 days/year, for 4 years now, have it all stored in spreadsheets. Rise and fall of pressure is a normal twice-daily occurance. Wind 20kts or better at Grantley Adams airport in Barbados is not unusual all year round, in fact, to me it is more unusual when they have below 15kt. Higher winds than surrounding airports are also normal for Hewanorra in St. Lucia, due to land terrain features but mostly due to ocean placement, as Atlantic ocean funnels between volcanic mountains of both St. Lucia and Martinique, and creates 'weather' and rough seas. (It is a crossing not recommended for novice sailors.)

That said, buoy at 56W has a rise in seas of 3ft over last several hours. That impresses me. Also, high resolution scatterometer this morning showed uncontaminated 40-45kt winds E and ESE of Barbados during peak cold of thunderstorm cluster, which also coincided with diurnal peak about sunrise. To me, that denotes volatility above the level of average tropical wave convection, of particular interest to mariners, especially all those people living on sailboats who's insurance companies forced them to take south for hurricane season.... better batten down and put out an extra anchor.

[RL3AO]

Man, this thing just doesn't want to die. When can we expect recon to arrive?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 16/1545Z
D. 13.5N 56.0W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

18z (2 pm EDT)

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

West Wind in Trinidad! later changed to SW.

10 AM (14) Jul 16 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) SW 6
9 AM (13) Jul 16 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) W 7

[bvigal]

after pressure reading are Temp, Dewpoint, RD

Code: Select all

Le Raizet   16.27N  61.53W   7/16/2008 14:00   12 kt, ENE (70 degrees)   1015.9 mb   86.0°F   71.6°F   62%   
Canefield Airpor   15.52N  61.38W   7/16/2008 14:00   12 kt, SSE (160 degrees)   1014.9 mb   86.0°F   73.4°F   66%   
Melville Hall Ar   15.52N  61.28W   7/16/2008 14:00   11 kt, E (90 degrees)   1015.9 mb   86.0°F   73.4°F   66%   
Le Lamentin/Mart   14.60N  61.00W   7/16/2008 14:09   16 kt, NE (50 degrees)   1014.9 mb   84.2°F   75.2°F   75%   
Vigie/St Lucia   14.02N  61.00W   7/16/2008 14:00   12 kt, ENE (60 degrees)   1014.9 mb   84.2°F   77.0°F   79%   
Hewanorra Intl   13.75N  60.95W   7/16/2008 14:00   18 kt, ENE (60 degrees)   1014.9 mb   84.2°F   77.0°F   79%   
Arnos Vale/St V   13.13N  61.20W   7/16/2008 13:00   6 kt, Variable   1014.9 mb   78.8°F   75.2°F   89%   Rain Shower
Grantley Adams   13.07N  59.48W   7/16/2008 14:15   33 kt, E (100 degrees)   1014.9 mb   73.4°F   73.4°F   100%   Heavy Rain Shower
Point Salines   12.00N  61.78W   7/16/2008 14:00   2 kt, Variable   1014.9 mb   82.4°F   78.8°F   89%   
Crown Pt/Scarbor   11.15N  60.85W   7/16/2008 14:00   Calm   1014.9 mb   82.4°F   71.6°F   70%   
Piarco Int Airpt   10.58N  61.35W   7/16/2008 14:00   5 kt, SW (220 degrees)   1013.9 mb   86.0°F   75.2°F   70%   


[RL3AO]

I don't see this surviving two days if it forms.

What is your reason for that statement? Look at the wind shear tendency. Conditions are marginal for development all the way across the Caribbean, and that pocket of higher shear may not be there in 3-4 days when it passes it. I'd say its got a shot of lasting longer than you think In fact conditions improve for development within the 2-3 day timeframe in the Eastern Caribbean.

Wind shear will increase again as shown by the GFS.

[cpdaman]

this seems like it is stronger than an average tropical wave

[senorpepr]

well you could get a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm maybe.. You could get a TS WATCH/WARNING is this thing forms.

Please don't give out false information. This disturbance is already north of Trinidad.

Maybe I haven't woke up yet (probably the case), but what does that have to do with anything? There are plenty of islands north of Trinidad.

[NDG]

I don't see this surviving two days if it forms.

What is your reason for that statement? Look at the wind shear tendency. Conditions are marginal for development all the way across the Caribbean, and that pocket of higher shear may not be there in 3-4 days when it passes it. I'd say its got a shot of lasting longer than you think In fact conditions improve for development within the 2-3 day timeframe in the Eastern Caribbean.

Wind shear will increase again as shown by the GFS.

The GFS shows shows an UL anticyclone over the eastern Caribbean through the next 48hrs at least, problem might be when it gets to the central Caribbean.

[Chacor]

well you could get a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm maybe.. You could get a TS WATCH/WARNING is this thing forms.

Please don't give out false information. This disturbance is already north of Trinidad.

Maybe I haven't woke up yet (probably the case), but what does that have to do with anything? There are plenty of islands north of Trinidad.

The question was from someone in Trinidad asking what they would get.

[alan1961]

south america bound?..thoughts anyone?