ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[gatorcane]

quickstat:

[Sanibel]

Like I said yesterday morning, this will either wipe out like the other CV ghosts this year or break the ice. The system is in obvious cyclogenesis. The first bursts of center convection were visible last night. Now we have full curvature and center-inspired convection. I suspect those calling this a wave are hedging on shear wiping it out. Maybe it will, but this one finally bloomed. This had the "look" of a developer several days ago.

Note the horn-like inflow to the south (Development).

[NDG]

I checked some buoy and nearby ship reports. Buoy 41100 (LAT: 15.90N and LON: 59.90W) is reporting a sustained wind of 21-24 Knots from the ENE. That is a noticeable increase from yesterday where it was at around 15 Knots.

Pressures are generally between 29.96-29.98 inches and slowly rising. So it does not appear we are seeing pressure drops.

Well, a closer station buoy 41101 just 100 miles N of the system did report a little pressure drop, while it passed to its south earlier this morning, with substained winds close to TD force.

[Extremeweatherguy]

quickstat:

This was taken at 9:30 UTC which equals 5:30am EDT. It is about 4 hours old.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I checked some buoy and nearby ship reports. Buoy 41100 (LAT: 15.90N and LON: 59.90W) is reporting a sustained wind of 21-24 Knots from the ENE. That is a noticeable increase from yesterday where it was at around 15 Knots.

Pressures are generally between 29.96-29.98 inches and slowly rising. So it does not appear we are seeing pressure drops.

Well, a closer station buoy 41101 just 100 miles N of the system did report a little pressure drop, while it passed to its south earlier this morning, with substained winds close to TD force.

Yes, you're right. As the center passed to its south, pressures dropped to 29.88" earlier this morning. Sustained winds also got up to around 28mph around that time. Now that the system is moving west of that area, pressures are rising and the winds are lightening.

[gatorcane]

16/1145 UTC 13.0N 56.1W T2.5/2.5

I've never seen a 2.5 for an open wave before...this could be a tropical depression or tropical storm right now.

I imagine we will get an upgrade once the plane gets there this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

Just entering a 29*C SST pocket.

Every day this gets further into July the better the potential.

Note low-track west so far (better chances for landfall).

System probably better aligned due to Caribbean transition from Atlantic.

[Cyclone1]

Yep, still a wave, but it's never looked this good.

[Derek Ortt]

16/1145 UTC 13.0N 56.1W T2.5/2.5

I've never seen a 2.5 for an open wave before...this could be a tropical depression or tropical storm right now.

I've seen 3.0 on open waves

[gatorcane]

Just entering a 29*C SST pocket.

Every day this gets further into July the better the potential.

Note low-track west so far (better chances for landfall).

System probably better aligned due to Caribbean transition from Atlantic.

I would not speculate on long-range movement yet. If it stays very weak yes. Looking at the GFS ensemble I'm seeing possible weaknesses in the Western Atlantic ridge upstream in the 240+ timeframe.

But until we have a center and global models start running, we won't know for sure. In all likelyhood, shear across the Caribbean should hopefully keep this thing from not getting any strong than a depression or weak TS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB has posted his opinion this is a tropical cyclone now.


However, I count two pro-mets against him, so he is still outnumbered.



However, usung my proprietary secret method of eleven herbs and spices, I know give this a 33.333% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.

[Sanibel]

At the speed this is presently moving 240 hours would put it in the Pacific at this track. Isn't it time to think downrange when a flaring system enters the Caribbean?

[NDG]

Hard to say if it has a LLC, but definitely a broad surface cyclonic circulation, IMO. If it could only slow down a little.

[Chacor]

The ATCF fix file hasn't updated since 0245 for some reason.

[jusjas]

Hi all, I live in Trinidad, what can we expect with invest 94L? Thanks

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hi all, I live in Trinidad, what can we expect with invest 94L? Thanks

Squalls and wind gusts...Nothing more...

[hurricanefloyd5]

well you could get a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm maybe.. You could get a TS WATCH/WARNING is this thing forms.

[Chacor]

well you could get a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm maybe.. You could get a TS WATCH/WARNING is this thing forms.

Please don't give out false information. This disturbance is already north of Trinidad.

[PTrackerLA]

With the forward speed and low latitude it's looking pretty good for gulf. I just don't see this being pulled much to the north. Thoughts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hi all, I live in Trinidad, what can we expect with invest 94L? Thanks

That far south, you will avoid the main brunt of this system, but you could still see a few showers and possibly some breezy winds at times.