ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jinftl]

does that model run essentially take ike over the lower keys?

Must be a typo

I don't know why my link didn't work, but if you go to Google maps and input the coordinates at 126 hours, you'll see it's 50 miles WSW of Tampa. Too close for comfort, but west.

[AdamFirst]

What are the model trends as of right now?

Still a Cuba/Eastern GOM storm?

[Myersgirl]

Must be a typo

I don't know why my link didn't work, but if you go to Google maps and input the coordinates at 126 hours, you'll see it's 50 miles WSW of Tampa. Too close for comfort, but west.

I was just questioning the first sentence wher it says "east of Tampa" not the coordinates

[KWT]

Watcch the GFDL closely, it seems to be handling the WSW motion of Ike alot better then the other models thus far, Ike at 12z almost bang on where the GFDL forecasted it to be.

[AtlanticWind]

Mentioned the windshield wiper effect with the models , lets see if the trend east continues in the next 24 hrs.

[otowntiger]

Watcch the GFDL closely, it seems to be handling the WSW motion of Ike alot better then the other models thus far, Ike at 12z almost bang on where the GFDL forecasted it to be.

Yeah, but is it handling it better than the other more favored models? If the GFDL track verifies toward the end of the run, then Tampa definitely still need to keep an eye out.

Where was the GFDL earlier? Was it more west?

[jlauderdal]

Funny how three days ago some of us Texas posters had our cone as Tampa to Tampico (no disrespect meant to our friends in the Florida Keys) ... and now three days later that cone is still "in play." Amazing!

What's funny is how when 2 days ago I mentioned a well known hurrican expert in our area stating that Ike would more than likely enter the GOM many members on the FL Pen nearly ripped my head off for making such a statement. There was no way possibly that was going to happen.

no, we just wanted to know what data he was looking at to make that statement and when we didnt get anything solid back we questioned however when you came back and said oh he does a radio show and came up with it then it made more sense...i dont remember anyone saying it couldnt happen we just wanted to know what a hurricane expert was looking it at so we could look to, we want to be in the know..i sent you a PM the other day asking for updates on what the good doctor is saying and post them just like i have been posting max mayfields comments, we have a thirst for information or we wouldnt be here.

J

[jhpigott]

otowntiger - look at the GDFL model plots in this image. Further SW in the short term but more N and E down the road . . . If Ike misses the NHC points to the south, then to me it looks like the GDFL is, at least currently, verifying

[jinftl]

wow...not good for key west if that pans out

otowntiger - look at the GDFL model plots in this image. Further SW in the short term but more N and E down the road . . . If Ike misses the NHC points to the south, then to me it looks like the GDFL is, at least currently, verifying

[KWT]

The GFDL looks the closest in terms of current motion though that doesn't mean its going to handle the future track any better but it does help to raise the confidence somewhat.

[Sabanic]

Watcch the GFDL closely, it seems to be handling the WSW motion of Ike alot better then the other models thus far, Ike at 12z almost bang on where the GFDL forecasted it to be.

Yeah, but is it handling it better than the other more favored models? If the GFDL track verifies toward the end of the run, then Tampa definitely still need to keep an eye out.

Where was the GFDL earlier? Was it more west?

Yes it was, but folks seriously unless Ike turns and goes into S/FL we are still 5-6 days out from Tampa, or to the NGC. I am just hoping he doesn't get too close to Haiti, which looks like he may, and hoping that South FL is spared.

[meteorologyman]

otowntiger - look at the GDFL model plots in this image. Further SW in the short term but more N and E down the road . . . If Ike misses the NHC points to the south, then to me it looks like the GDFL is, at least currently, verifying

It looks like the GFDL is veryifying

[jinftl]

Don't forget the Florida Keys are part of south florida...they may be the first u.s. spot to deal with ike...they have just begun evacuating visitors....residents are being evacuated starting at 8am sunday.

Watcch the GFDL closely, it seems to be handling the WSW motion of Ike alot better then the other models thus far, Ike at 12z almost bang on where the GFDL forecasted it to be.

Yeah, but is it handling it better than the other more favored models? If the GFDL track verifies toward the end of the run, then Tampa definitely still need to keep an eye out.

Where was the GFDL earlier? Was it more west?

Yes it was, but folks seriously unless Ike turns and goes into S/FL we are still 5-6 days out from Tampa, or to the NGC. I am just hoping he doesn't get too close to Haiti, which looks like he may, and hoping that South FL is spared.

[caneman]

The saving grace for Haiti, if there can be one, is that IKE is moving fast. The other ones just sat over them and caused serious flood problems.

[Vortex]

Preffered Model Guidance is beginning to shift east once again since yesterday afternoon/evening. The GFDL, HWRF, Nogaps, and BAMD 6z all now indicate a substantial right turn into the weakness expected over Florida in about 2-3 days. Right now the final destination is not nearly as important as is the trend. A shift to the right by as little as 50-100 miles would bring a worst case scenario to the Florida Peninsula from the keys north to include the entire peninsula. If your in Florida please dont let your guard down. Climatology and the most recent trends from the 6z guidance suggest that Florida and the Keys are in now way shape or form "out of the woods" and in fact are disconcerting trends.

[gatorcane]

Vortex link?

I admit, I have let my guard down here in Palm Beach, Florida

[Vortex]

Vortex link?

I admit, I have let my guard down here in Palm Beach, Florida

Gator,

take a look at the 6z GFDL, 6Z HWRF, 6ZNOGAPS and the 6Z Deep Bam model and there is a strong shift east with a fairly hard right turn North and in the longer range 6Z GFS brings this across north florida with a NNE heading...These trends cannot be ignored.

[AdamFirst]

That's what I was wondering, do the models take in the weakness from Hanna at all?

[Emmett_Brown]

Vortex link?

I admit, I have let my guard down here in Palm Beach, Florida

Here is the 6z GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008090606-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

And the 6z HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090606-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Both have trended right, and suggest a recurve scenario over the EGOM

[ROCK]

Preffered Model Guidance is beginning to shift east once again since yesterday afternoon/evening. The GFDL, HWRF, Nogaps, and BAMD 6z all now indicate a substantial right turn into the weakness expected over Florida in about 2-3 days. Right now the final destination is not nearly as important as is the trend. A shift to the right by as little as 50-100 miles would bring a worst case scenario to the Florida Peninsula from the keys north to include the entire peninsula. If your in Florida please dont let your guard down. Climatology and the most recent trends from the 6z guidance suggest that Florida and the Keys are in now way shape or form "out of the woods" and in fact are disconcerting trends.

trending east yesterday? huh? I was up at 2am and saw the EURO plunge Ike into SMX....not sure I would call that east....Climatology? Climo suggest Ike should not be plunging SW right now. Now lets look at the models for 06z.....BAMM's are worthless, NOGAPS, worthless so what are you left with? GFDL and HWRF...they have been pretty good......but one run does not a trend make......