ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sabanic]

Still have 5-7 days before he would strike FL if he goes that way. Lotsa time for lotsa changes

[cape_escape]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

[Sanibel]

Two reliable models have come way west. Watch for NHC 5pm track to pass over Miami.

Models are tail whipping now.

Compute:

Fay had a similar track from the east only further south. Reliable models went east off Florida, then west off west Florida, and then came back to the middle for final track.

[skufful]

I'm anxious to see if the NHC will put a landfall point on SFL, I'm thinking just offshore for at least 2 more advisories to avoid media hype or because it really will miss SFL. I'm thinking w/ the models shifting a little S the NHC track will shift S a little, but again the NHC scientific data is normally different than my logic. I researched 1999 Hurricane Floyds points, only 1 time did the NHC predict a landfall point on Florida and that was near New Smyrna Beach and that was more of a side swipe as Floyd was recurving. It was close but the NHC was pretty sure Floyd was going to miss SFL all along. If the NHC shows a landfall into the SFL peninsula I'm on alert.

Well with recent History as close as the NHC nailing Gustav in central LA 5 days out you can only respect thier 5 Day cone...

I think they do much better in the GOM, but consistently place the cone too far south in the Atlantic, i.e. Hanna was supposed to effect Savannah, Beaufort, then as usual, they kept nudging north. Heck we evacuated three times in two years back a few, only to have the storms hit in NC. I will worry when the track is forecasted just south of say Jax three days out.

[Brent]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

Probably this weekend. It's still beyond 5 days(barely). No reason to hype it yet.

[gatorcane]

Two reliable models have come way west. Watch for NHC 5pm track to pass over Miami.

Models are tail whipping now.

Compute:

Fay had a similar track from the east only further south. Reliable models went east off Florida, then west off west Florida, and then came back to the middle for final track.

maybe not that far of a track shift south...but should be a nudge south at 5pm EST.

[bstruss]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not.

You mean the music and commercial channel. Thats about all they are good for anymore. I get far more weather from the major and local news channels.

[chris_fit]

So I got a bulletin at my work today showing the impact on our company (Bank)... Attached is the tracking map... "They" (Impact Weather, NOT my company, I guess they just provide weather forecasting for us) are thinking it will re-curve.

Here is their discussion...

Hurricane Ike will track towards the central to southeastern Bahamas over the weekend and then turn towards the northwest over the western Bahamas on Monday. The timing of the turn will be such that Ike will track about 100 to 150 miles off the east coast of Florida on Tuesday. This track should keep tropical storm force winds offshore of Florida's east coast but it’s really too soon to predict with much confidence. After Tuesday, Ike will take a northerly turn, possibly toward the Carolinas. Any impact in South or North Carolina would be Wednesday afternoon or on Thursday of next week. Confidence in this track is low beyond Tuesday.

Here is the tracking map...

[jlauderdal]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

they follow nhc, dont look for anything groundbreaking from them

[sfwx]

I'm anxious to see if the NHC will put a landfall point on SFL, I'm thinking just offshore for at least 2 more advisories to avoid media hype or because it really will miss SFL. I'm thinking w/ the models shifting a little S the NHC track will shift S a little, but again the NHC scientific data is normally different than my logic. I researched 1999 Hurricane Floyds points, only 1 time did the NHC predict a landfall point on Florida and that was near New Smyrna Beach and that was more of a side swipe as Floyd was recurving. It was close but the NHC was pretty sure Floyd was going to miss SFL all along. If the NHC shows a landfall into the SFL peninsula I'm on alert.

Did the NHC do a five day forecast in 1999 or was it still a three day?

Eric

[cape_escape]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

Probably this weekend. It's still beyond 5 days(barely). No reason to hype it yet.

Thank you Brent! I'm beginning to get a little concerned, kind of the same feeling I had before Charley, and everyone kept telling me we were in the clear....

[cpdaman]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

they follow nhc, dont look for anything groundbreaking from them

well i was watching earlier and what i did catch is they are seeming to emphasize more of a threat into the bahamas now and less talk of recurve prior to that. but they don't mention the CONUS yet

[Steve H.]

12Z Euro has shifted way west into the GOM. In a way, I don't like seeing that in Florida, since it may be an overstated shift,

[Brent]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

Probably this weekend. It's still beyond 5 days(barely). No reason to hype it yet.

Thank you Brent! I'm beginning to get a little concerned, kind of the same feeling I had before Charley, and everyone kept telling me we were in the clear....

That is if they can cut away from Storm Stories and "It Can Happen Tomorrow"...

TWC doesn't tell you anything you can't find here.

[cape_escape]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

they follow nhc, dont look for anything groundbreaking from them

That's just one more reason I'm thankful I found Storm2k! It was my saving grace throughout Charley!

[jlauderdal]

So I got a bulletin at my work today showing the impact on our company (Bank)... Attached is the tracking map... "They" (Impact Weather, NOT my company, I guess they just provide weather forecasting for us) are thinking it will re-curve.

Here is their discussion...

Hurricane Ike will track towards the central to southeastern Bahamas over the weekend and then turn towards the northwest over the western Bahamas on Monday. The timing of the turn will be such that Ike will track about 100 to 150 miles off the east coast of Florida on Tuesday. This track should keep tropical storm force winds offshore of Florida's east coast but it’s really too soon to predict with much confidence. After Tuesday, Ike will take a northerly turn, possibly toward the Carolinas. Any impact in South or North Carolina would be Wednesday afternoon or on Thursday of next week. Confidence in this track is low beyond Tuesday.

Here is the tracking map...

that was an interesting track even based on what we know when they did that forecast which i suspect was this morning..lets see how they do moving forward, that track could verify but their next track will probably be farther west and a softer turn, let us know how they do

[Sabanic]

Dr. Bill's GOM idea possibility may not be as far fetched as some thought, but still way too early to know for sure.

[BOPPA]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

Probably this weekend. It's still beyond 5 days(barely). No reason to hype it yet.

Thank you Brent! I'm beginning to get a little concerned, kind of the same feeling I had before Charley, and everyone kept telling me we were in the clear....

Cape Escape - I am with you on that feeling - not very warm & fuzzy. This is beginning
to get me VERY concerned.

[Sanibel]

maybe not that far of a track shift south...but should be a nudge south at 5pm EST.

You're right Gatorcane. I forgot to estimate in NHC conservative factor.

[cape_escape]

I turned on the Weather Channel just to see if they're saying anything, but they're not. When do you think they'll start talking about any threat to the US?

they follow nhc, dont look for anything groundbreaking from them

well i was watching earlier and what i did catch is they are seeming to emphasize more of a threat into the bahamas now and less talk of recurve prior to that. but they don't mention the CONUS yet

They did just mention a recurve away from the US.....I thik I'll just stick right here!