ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

See model thread- UK Met is just West of due North, and then a painful death impaled on the Cordillera of Hispaniola.

[Just Joshing You]

41k flight level winds already!!!!!!!

[CrazyC83]

Looks to me like about 50 kt, although we will wait for the Recon to see what it finds.

[Comanche]

What do I think?

I think it looks alot like-

[CrazyC83]

41k flight level winds already!!!!!!!

Yep and 45 kt SFMR. Definitely TS Gustav as expected.

[Swimdude]

T.S. winds found in the NorthWest Quad. Not surprised in the slightest.

[Brent]

What do yas think?

What is it with eyes in things that are not hurricanes this year?

[Swimdude]

41k flight level winds already!!!!!!!

Yep and 45 kt SFMR. Definitely TS Gustav as expected.

What's "SFMR" an abbreviation for?

[Stormcenter]

I have to agree, I don't see this movement sustaining into the Bahamas. The track Derek has looks to make sense given the forecasted synoptics the rest of this week. Once in the GOM one would have to think an eastern half of the Gulf for a landfall providing it takes this track. I think we have a very strong TS already.



Not official, get all your information on Tropical Weather from official forecasts.

Eastern GOM?

[CrazyC83]

41k flight level winds already!!!!!!!

Yep and 45 kt SFMR. Definitely TS Gustav as expected.

What's "SFMR" an abbreviation for?

Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, which makes estimates of surface winds.

[Sanibel]

If you are getting 45Kts that far NW what do you think will show in the NE eyewall?

[mutley]

What is it with eyes in things that are not hurricanes this year?

Looks like 2008 is the year of the eye feature.

[bahamaswx]

Not buying the NHC track at all. I'd be shocked if 'Gustav' made it north of cuba.

[wxman57]

wxman, is your chart derived from the GFS model?

Asking since your path prediction is based on it being true. I saw another NWS office say that the GFS was acting wacky and showing a non-existent ridge, so they were completely dismissing it. I gotta go look for where i read that early this morning...

Let me be more clear, that chart I posted IS the 12Z GFS. It's not "my chart". I just plotted the 12Z GFS data for 500mb heights valid Tuesday evening. GFS is and has been for quite a while, forecasting a ridge over Florida and the Gulf. It does indicate a weakness in the ridge over the central Gulf by Sunday, though.

[CrazyC83]

I think the 2 pm advisory will be a bit delayed as they will probably go with a special advisory around 2:15-2:30 pm knowing it will likely have gone up quite a bit in intensity.

[Steve]

>>GFS is bullish on the system and sends west into South Mexico.

Where do you get this from? The initial advisory specificially states that it "curiously" doesn't even get a storm going. Rearrange a couple of letters in bullish and add a "t" and that's the GFS's solution for 00z. For 06z, it wobbles out a jelly-like low that gets absorbed into the westerlies by a trough in the north Atlantic.

Finally GFS 12z does little if anything and apparently splits the energy between the SW Atlantic and some type of barely discerable surface feature that flops its way to the Yucatan.

So seriously, where do you get this "bullish" idea? I don't understand what you are saying at all.

Steve

[Dean4Storms]

I have to agree, I don't see this movement sustaining into the Bahamas. The track Derek has looks to make sense given the forecasted synoptics the rest of this week. Once in the GOM one would have to think an eastern half of the Gulf for a landfall providing it takes this track. I think we have a very strong TS already.



Not official, get all your information on Tropical Weather from official forecasts.

Eastern GOM?

Yes, a weakness in the central GOM is expected over the weekend.

[lamsalfl]

Would it be crazy to think the storm will go left of the track because the center will move to the left to try and organize underneath the deepest thunderstorms?

[93superstorm]

Whats everyones guess the Pressure will be? Im thinking of 994

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is not bullish on anything, it has no TC in the Carib. at all!