Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[JonathanBelles]

12 Z GFS takes it right up the West Coast Of Florida.

a couple of days ago one of the models showed that. It's not allowed.

Thats what I am thinking

[stormy1970al]

First I do not see where anyone is -removed- for this system to go in the Gulf. Believe me those who live along the Gulf Coast wishes this thing would go out to sea and leave everyone alone but living along the Gulf Coast we have to keep an eye out on the tropics. Right now the models are shifting and the best thing to do is listen to mets. They are trained to read, make forecasts. Of course we all need to remember that forecasts can be changed like mother nature can change her mind.

As the hurricane season heats up this board is going to be rocking and I think everyone needs to remember to keep it calm, direct and stop the nonsense of calling people people I disagree with, etc. Listen to the promets on here. They are wise and so far they have guide me through Hurricane Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina. And pretty much were right on track. Thank storm2k and all of the promets who volunteer their time when they are very busy!

[oyster_reef]

12z CMC, GFDL, GFS and UKM all have this as a GOM'er

[ftolmsteen]

12z CMC, GFDL, GFS and UKM all have this as a GOM'er

SH'ZAAMM!!!

Does anyone know why the GFDL thinks it's going to dip to the south for a bit?

[tolakram]

12z CMC, GFDL, GFS and UKM all have this as a GOM'er

SH'ZAAMM!!!

Does anyone know why the GFDL thinks it's going to dip to the south for a bit?

The assumption a page back was bad data due to land interaction.

[Dean4Storms]

12z CMC, GFDL, GFS and UKM all have this as a GOM'er

And then just as suddenly as the trend went west we get a trend of the deniers who suddenly find all these models runs suspicious, initiated wrong, e.t.c....

I was stating yesterday that I did not see the reasoning behind the abrupt turn to the North unless 92L was able to Bomb to a Cat.2 while interacting with land. I stated that I could see a more gradual turn taking it across Cuba threatening either South Florida or it ending up in the SE GOM.

I went against most of the models and they are trending into agreement with me today.

[oyster_reef]

I am anxious to see the trend stop and shift east. Any more shift west would put it our over the central GOM and that could be a total disaster in the making.

[ronjon]

ok, everyone let's look at the trends - every single model at 12Z has shifted significantly west - the furthest east is now the HWRF which runs up the center of the FL peninsula. We now have CMC, GFS, UKMET, GFDL, & NOGAPs all now into the GOM. Pretty clear trend - looks like the chances of up the FL east coast are rapidly diminishing. Now, what worries me is that if 92L tracks south of Cuba it moves over some of the highest oceanic heat content there is. If it manages to stay south of Cuba and enters the SE GOM we could still be looking at a major hurricane down the road.

[gatorcane]

One run shift west...I want more consistency.

[Ivanhater]

Well I thought this would happen this morning, it has all to do with the movement now..every hour this doesnt pick up latitude the models will shift there turn further west

[Aric Dunn]

remember that some of the models are initializing it from the postions from this morning that were just south of PR .. since there no center to track .. the models suck at this point except for synoptics paterns

[oyster_reef]

:uarrow:

One run shift west...I want more consistency.

12z CMC, GFDL, GFS and UKM all have this as a GOM'er

[Trader Ron]

:uarrow:

One run shift west...I want more consistency.

12z CMC, GFDL, GFS and UKM all have this as a GOM'er

12 z CMC, and GFS have it going up the West Ccoast of Florida.

HWRF up the spine of Florida

[SouthFloridawx]

Okay so now we got:

[Dean4Storms]

This is going to be a NE GOM problem.

[gatorcane]

FL peninsula still the target

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO....All florida. then North.

[ronjon]

Here's why the shift in the 12Z models - weakness in the 500 mb ridge in the central GOM.

[ronjon]

12Z Euro up the west coast of FL just like 12Z GFS.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081512!!/

[Meso]

Don't think it's been posted, forgive me if I'm wrong