ATL: IKE Discussion

[foladar]

12z HWRF shows an Andrew-esque landfall location. Wow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Scary, Glad I moved out of that area just before hurricane season. Even if it doesn't hit there.

[Evil Jeremy]

This just hit me, and I do not like it:

We are looking at what could be the strongest direct hit to South East Florida since Andrew

[dwg71]

Ike is feeling the effects of the Northerly shear, hopefully it will be cut up pretty good.

[amanda]

i'm going down to west palm for a friend's wedding this weekend. it's a saturday afternoon wedding. talk about timing.... first it was a close call with hanna and if ike does hit near there, it will be a couple days after the wedding.

[cycloneye]

Ike is not looking great right now,I say down to cat 3 at 110kts.

[Lowpressure]

The issue might be that the area where Hanna was/is has been so non-condusive for strengthening. What will that area east of the Bahamas be like in four to five days. There would almost have to be at least some upwelling in that area.

[GeneratorPower]

Momentary glitch. Last frame shows some improvment. I think the wind field is expanding that's why the intensity is lowering a bit.

[Canelaw99]

This just hit me, and I do not like it:

We are looking at what could be the strongest direct hit to South East Florida since Andrew

Shhhh....maybe if you don't tell Ike he'll just go away

[Sanibel]

The sky here is like high pressure. Steady NE winds under clear blue skies and fair weather clouds. Clouds moving in same direction as surface wind. Not sure what that means. I hope it doesn't mean stronger high pressure to take Ike west.

I usually scoff privately at my keyboard at people speculating a Donna track except this one is almost perfectly synchronized for the same date and the forecasted track is perfect - if you shift it west 150 miles or so. Not suggesting it, just musing.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC BEST TRACK downgrades the winds to 115kts.

AL, 09, 2008090418, , BEST, 0, 234N, 576W, 115, 945, HU,

[sfwx]

Watch the media frenzy begin at 5:00 pm tonight.

I'm not panicking yet, but a little bit of panic is setting in for me, especially with the model shift west.

I have a store in a mall in Palm Beach County and many customers are coming in to my store and know about Ike.
One is stocking up on "comfort food"
Another is going to fill up his gas tank "for the storm"
Another got a call from his Mom out of town telling him we are getting a storm.
Another says that there is a rush at some area stores for bottled water.

So, I think the frenzy has started.
Not a bad thing since people should get ready anyway during hurricane season.

BTW, I am still buying the recurve theory BEFORE Florida.[/quote]

Are you telling your customers that?!?!?!?!

Eric

[cpdaman]

i think IKE will undergo HIGHER fluctuations in intensity than forecast by the NHC. they always seem to play these things safer (since timing intensity changes are so difficult/impossible) so doing this can give the net best accuracy. I think the changes at least downward will fluctuate higher because ike is a small cane

also should the storm recurve but still hit north central florida area i would fear a large surge in canaveral-jacksonville corridor (they are more surge prone that s fl)

[Blown Away]

I'm anxious to see if the NHC will put a landfall point on SFL, I'm thinking just offshore for at least 2 more advisories to avoid media hype or because it really will miss SFL. I'm thinking w/ the models shifting a little S the NHC track will shift S a little, but again the NHC scientific data is normally different than my logic. I researched 1999 Hurricane Floyds points, only 1 time did the NHC predict a landfall point on Florida and that was near New Smyrna Beach and that was more of a side swipe as Floyd was recurving. It was close but the NHC was pretty sure Floyd was going to miss SFL all along. If the NHC shows a landfall into the SFL peninsula I'm on alert.

[Stratusxpeye]

This just hit me, and I do not like it:

We are looking at what could be the strongest direct hit to South East Florida since Andrew

I doubt it. Intensity is something we have no idea how to predict this far out. If this does continue to move west and end up over florida I'd say it would be around cat 2 or maybe less if it does hit cuba like some models suggest.

[sweetpea]

The sky here is like high pressure. Steady NE winds under clear blue skies and fair weather clouds. Clouds moving in same direction as surface wind. Not sure what that means. I hope it doesn't mean stronger high pressure to take Ike west.

I usually scoff privately at my keyboard at people speculating a Donna track except this one is almost perfectly synchronized for the same date and the forecasted track is perfect - if you shift it west 150 miles or so. Not suggesting it, just musing.

Yes it actually is a pretty nice day here. HOT! but nice

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[gatorcane]

I'm anxious to see if the NHC will put a landfall point on SFL, I'm thinking just offshore for at least 2 more advisories to avoid media hype or because it really will miss SFL. I'm thinking w/ the models shifting a little S the NHC track will shift S a little, but again the NHC scientific data is normally different than my logic. I researched 1999 Hurricane Floyds points, only 1 time did the NHC predict a landfall point on Florida and that was near New Smyrna Beach and that was more of a side swipe as Floyd was recurving. It was close but the NHC was pretty sure Floyd was going to miss SFL all along. If the NHC shows a landfall into the SFL peninsula I'm on alert.

Well I have to say I agree with this completely....they will not put the 5 day point inland South Florida unless they have good confidence which they may not have completely yet...but the 12Z guidance may have given them some more confidence....

[cpdaman]

This just hit me, and I do not like it:

We are looking at what could be the strongest direct hit to South East Florida since Andrew

I doubt it. Intensity is something we have no idea how to predict this far out. If this does continue to move west and end up over florida I'd say it would be around cat 2 or maybe less if it does hit cuba like some models suggest.

i agree with your first line, no body can predict intensity this far out accurately.

with that said w/o a cuba hit there is every reason this should be a major (even if it has a harder time with shear in the next 36 hours)

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm anxious to see if the NHC will put a landfall point on SFL, I'm thinking just offshore for at least 2 more advisories to avoid media hype or because it really will miss SFL. I'm thinking w/ the models shifting a little S the NHC track will shift S a little, but again the NHC scientific data is normally different than my logic. I researched 1999 Hurricane Floyds points, only 1 time did the NHC predict a landfall point on Florida and that was near New Smyrna Beach and that was more of a side swipe as Floyd was recurving. It was close but the NHC was pretty sure Floyd was going to miss SFL all along. If the NHC shows a landfall into the SFL peninsula I'm on alert.

Well with recent History as close as the NHC nailing Gustav in central LA 5 days out you can only respect thier 5 Day cone...

[gatorcane]

Another impressive pic:

It's pretty clear Ike is just starting to feel the ridge to the NW...as evident by Ike's NW side getting compressed some today.