ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[deltadog03]

too bad for 92L... it just didn't endure the shear... i guess most people now are joining the poof bandwagon with derek...

I don't understand your posts. Either they are right after Derek's or you are just...I dunno how to explain it. "too bad for 92L" How do you figure?? Ya it looks very pathetic right now. You have 2 very good models and even an ok model with nam/wrf developing this once is gets above the islands. A wave is a wave and this time of year unless there are NO clouds this is not dead. Its funny though, have you seen the Euro, have you seen the GFDL (which btw is derived from the GFS) Obviously the upper air enviroment is going to get very conducive for development north of the islands, into the bahamas, and into the eastern gom or none of these models wouldn't develop this AT ALL!

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN
CANCELED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO HAS DECREASED. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/131139.shtml

[HURRICANELONNY]

It is hard to find the low where their saying it is. I guess they go by the buoy. If you notice in the last couple of frames. The cloud tops are not streaming north as much. More of it is moving west. Convection is increasing. I wouldn't give up yet. Lets see how it does today. As shear seems to be letting up.

[HURAKAN]

[carolina_73]

I believe one of the models was showing a couple of days ago this making a split??? Part of it was going to head towards the Caribbean and the other more north of the islands towards the Bahamas.

[bvigal]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 56W/57W S OF
20N OR ABOUT 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.

[HURAKAN]

too bad for 92L... it just didn't endure the shear... i guess most people now are joining the poof bandwagon with derek...

I don't understand your posts. Either they are right after Derek's or you are just...I dunno how to explain it. "too bad for 92L" How do you figure?? Ya it looks very pathetic right now. You have 2 very good models and even an ok model with nam/wrf developing this once is gets above the islands. A wave is a wave and this time of year unless there are NO clouds this is not dead. Its funny though, have you seen the Euro, have you seen the GFDL (which btw is derived from the GFS) Obviously the upper air enviroment is going to get very conducive for development north of the islands, into the bahamas, and into the eastern gom or none of these models wouldn't develop this AT ALL!

[boca]

I would say the center is about 17n and 55w based on the orange tops on ir.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 56W/57W S OF
20N OR ABOUT 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.

So? Any LLC would develop under the convection which is near 18N.

[Ed Mahmoud]

14N - IS ANYBODY PAYING ATTENTION?????????? This is not poof, it's going into the Caribbean, TODAY. Look east of Martinique, not up where you've been watching!

Darned shame that the IR Channel 2 floater was messed with, but using IR4, and different color enhancements, if there is any kind of lower level circulation left, IMHO, its is about 15ºN, 56.5ºW. Not much convection with it. If there is any mid level center left, it might be closer to 18ºN and 54ºW.


So, one, it isn't dead, just horribly disorganized, and if shear and dry air ever improve, the center would probably form closer to where it is convecting. Unless what I see further to the Southwest, closer to 15ºN starts developing storms soon, I'd hazard a guess this affects the Lesser Antilles, mainly the Northern half of the chain, as any other active tropical wave.


Amateur and humble, and very unofficial opinion.

It isn't dead yet, but it is feeling rather poorly. It ate the salmon mousse.

[HURAKAN]

It's also worth mentioning that the GFDL doesn't do much with this system until it's north of Puerto Rico. For those saying poof, it's too early.

GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Ed Mahmoud]

I will say, unless the satellite presentation improves markedly, I'd cancel the planes today.

I believe a couple are NOAA planes on a data gathering mission. I suppose if they can gather useful data in a disorganized collection of convective blobs, what is probably just a active wave, I guess they'll still go. But as far as finding a TD, or witnessing TC genesis, I think they'll come away not seeing it.

[Stratosphere747]

I will say, unless the satellite presentation improves markedly, I'd cancel the planes today.

I believe a couple are NOAA planes on a data gathering mission. I suppose if they can gather useful data in a disorganized collection of convective blobs, what is probably just a active wave, I guess they'll still go. But as far as finding a TD, or witnessing TC genesis, I think they'll come away not seeing it.

Recon has already been canceled. No idea about the NOAA flight but would assume the same.

[Blown Away]

Significant convection starting to build, but it is very disorganized. I'm not going to fall into the trap and make any assumptions with 92L, it's just building convection for now!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Bring the rains to Puerto Rico!!,that is all I want from this to end the drought here.About tropical cyclone formation,it may take days if it develops at all.I am turning my attention to the new wave emerging Africa.

[RL3AO]

Significant convection starting to build, but it is very disorganized. I'm not going to fall into the trap and make any assumptions with 92L, it's just building convection for now!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

It needs every bit of convection it can get to survive until it gets north of the islands into more favorable conditions.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This system needs convergence at the lower levels if it's going to maintain convection and form a center. So far, we've seen good convection, but no circulation. Or, we see a circulation, but weak convection.

And right now, convergence looks very poor over 92L.

[Gustywind]

14N - IS ANYBODY PAYING ATTENTION?????????? This is not poof, it's going into the Caribbean, TODAY. Look east of Martinique, not up where you've been watching!

Yeah i have noticied that's creazy , we should monitor that, i was tkinking at 17N but racing on Martinica and Guadeloupe too..

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes 92L does is disorganized this morning. However as HURAKAN said above, gfdl doesn't develop this system for a couple more days. I wouldn't be calling poof on this system either. GFS is still showing an Upper Level Anticyclone to develop in the same area as the models are expecting 92L to be. This is perhaps what GFDL is catching as well, due to the fact that it is initialized with the GFS. ECM, GFDL and CMC still develop this system. So I think it still bears watching IMO.

I could be wrong and nothing come out of this, but with what GFDL and ECM are showing on their respective runs... I think I'll pay attention.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 92, 2008081312, , BEST, 0, 166N, 571W, 25, 1009,