Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cycloneye]

Here is the 12z CMC.Some say its the best performer so far for 92L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Steve]

>>Some on here are grabbing at every straw for a GOM threat, which I just don't see considering the models show a HP building over Texas and east of Bermuda with a weakness over Florida and NC. GFS actually initialized about 125 miles too far south.

Dude. You really ought not be going there in light of the models you are discounting and scenarios you are accepting. Where are you? Oh yeah, North Carolina. They call that "projection", and when you are doing it - despite whatever denial you might try to put up there (your posts tell the story) - calling anyone else out on it is weak. One person on this forum has mentioned "South Carolina" before today or yesterday's "The Carolinas." That poster lives in Louisiana. Just remember that.

Steve

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z UKMET West of FL too...Headed to Miss...

Note: that CMC Shifted way East from the Yucatan..

[CalmBeforeStorm]

12Z NoGaps through the Florida Straits headed for Mississippi.

[Dean4Storms]

The trend is west as I feared.

[tolakram]

Models initialized near the correct location all show this going over land.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Models initialized near the correct location all show this going over land.

Are we really sure of the "correct location"?

[tolakram]

No, good point, but this is better than east of PR.

[txwatcher91]

>>Some on here are grabbing at every straw for a GOM threat, which I just don't see considering the models show a HP building over Texas and east of Bermuda with a weakness over Florida and NC. GFS actually initialized about 125 miles too far south.

Dude. You really ought not be going there in light of the models you are discounting and scenarios you are accepting. Where are you? Oh yeah, North Carolina. They call that "projection", and when you are doing it - despite whatever denial you might try to put up there (your posts tell the story) - calling anyone else out on it is weak. One person on this forum has mentioned "South Carolina" before today or yesterday's "The Carolinas." That poster lives in Louisiana. Just remember that.

Steve

What is wrong with using the Euro, GFDL, GFS, and HWRF? Historically they have been the most accurate for tc track. I am NOT -removed-, just stating the synoptics. Wxman57 even posted a map that showed a ridge over Texas, one near Bermuda, with a small weakness on the EAST side of Florida. If you don't believe me go to the 92L thread, it is on there, can't remember which page though. Facts are facts and that is what the more reliable models are currently showing. Euro has been showing East FL, SC, or NC storm for days, while most other models have been going from west FL to east FL and back again. Now IF this goes the length of Cuba then it will go in the Gom from being weaker, but only the far east gom as I see it based on the synoptics the models show.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL shifts west to GOM:

WHXX04 KWBC 151726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 67.5 275./13.0
6 18.1 69.1 275./15.9
12 17.3 70.4 237./14.7
18 17.4 73.0 272./24.5
24 18.0 74.3 292./13.1
30 18.4 75.5 290./12.6
36 18.7 76.9 281./13.9
42 18.9 78.0 283./10.0
48 19.2 79.2 284./12.2
54 19.8 80.2 299./10.3
60 19.9 81.1 279./ 9.2
66 20.4 81.6 319./ 6.7
72 21.5 82.2 329./11.9
78 22.2 82.9 315./10.1
84 23.0 83.6 320./ 9.9
90 23.7 84.1 323./ 8.3
96 24.7 84.5 342./10.3
102 25.6 84.8 341./ 9.9
108 26.5 84.8 356./ 8.5
114 27.3 85.1 347./ 9.0
120 28.2 85.2 354./ 8.9
126 29.1 85.0 9./ 8.5


Major shift to GOM.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL is late no?

[Steve]

>>12Z NoGaps through the Florida Straits headed for Mississippi.

While I completely disagree with a Mississippi solution (the coast is all of what, 75 miles across?), Hancock County MS to Baldwin County AL (and maybe as far over as Santa Rosa County, FL is my Gulf target area for a Georges like panic-storm this year. For people who have been reading s2k or CFHC for more than 10 years (and yeah, it's been that long), that's usually where I pinpoint my threat when I see a season with a Gulf threat (outside of random tropical storms) when it doesn't look like a Texas/Mexico year. There's too much warm water off of SW LA and in the Eastern Gulf to not at least acknowledge a threat similar to Georges if not an outright later-season, long tracker which it was, and in being so, was somewhat of an anomaly from say a Camile like system that came out of the WCAR.

Steve

[cycloneye]

GFDL is late no?

Above you.

[Stormcenter]

The trend is west as I feared.

Not if you take into account the CMC...it shifted eastward big time. I think you are "fearing" too much for nothing right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL is late no?

Above you.

Wow..Major Shift

[marcus B]

Looks like this might end up in the eastern gulf after all.

[Weatherfreak14]

Im scared it of the GFDL it takes a Cat 3 into beaufort, sc where i live.

[Steve]

>>What is wrong with using the Euro, GFDL, GFS, and HWRF? Historically they have been the most accurate for tc track. I am NOT -removed-, just stating the synoptics. Wxman57 even posted a map that showed a ridge over Texas, one near Bermuda, with a small weakness on the EAST side of Florida. If you don't believe me go to the 92L thread, it is on there, can't remember which page though. Facts are facts and that is what the more reliable models are currently showing. Euro has been showing East FL, SC, or NC storm for days, while most other models have been going from west FL to east FL and back again. Now IF this goes the length of Cuba then it will go in the Gom from being weaker, but only the far east gom as I see it based on the synoptics the models show.

I don't disagree with any of that. My entire early call from Tuesday AM (or Monday night) was a threat in your neck of the woods. An alliance of the Euro, GFS, GFDL and HRWF is one I'd put the house on vs. the NOGAPS (which does have its good years) and CMC. So I'm not arguing that. I'm neutral anyway because I think it's a SE US threat (which is in line with what you are thinking). I totally understand your point and your reasoning behind your point. I even agree with you. But in light of your posts in this thread - which -removed- or not all did accept an East Coast up to a NC solution - you can't call out others for doing the same thing. Again, I agree with you. I think you are a good poster and read what you put out there. I even agree with you in this instance. I just hate state-based forecasts. And if everyone else is doing it (and many posters do), you have to watch out. Anyone on here will tell you I specifically disacknowledge any threats to SE or SC Louisiana until it's beyond obvious simply so I can maintain my credibility and neutrality. I don't expect everyone to emulate that. That's just me.

Steve

[tolakram]

If 92L doesn't develop it keeps moving mostly west and the models keep shifting west, at least that's been the trend so far. If you extend the trend that this invest has been moving in it will drift south of Florida after crossing just about every land mass near it. If it develops then I ASSUME it will trend more north.

Bottom line, I can't understand confidence in ANY model at this point because the system is not organizing.

In my amateur opinion.

[Stormcenter]

I may have missed something here but aren't we still just talking about "only" an invest right now? I don't understand what the anxiety attacks are all about model shifts. This not a Andrew, Wilma or Katrina we are talking about right now.