ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[alan1961]

Hurakan..would you say there is ANY resemblance of circulation there?

[wxman57]

I have a question for those who think it will be dead, no matter what time tomorrow (Weds, Aug 13). That question is this: if it is dead. Where did it go? Will it just vanish from the atmosphere? Why? Sorry, now it's several questions. But seriously, where will this tropical wave and its energy go if it is dead tomorrow? My fear is that it lies dormant. Perhaps that is a better assessment of the situation. It certainly looks very meek tonight but has managed to hang around for this long. If it hangs around for another 48 hours then we might have a real problem on our hands down the road. That's the thing- we just don't know. Gotta wait and see.

If you define "dead" as less likely to develop, then it continues moving westward just like any other tropical wave. It'll probably be moving through the Florida Straits early next week and into the eastern Gulf - as a tropical wave. There will still be a chance of redevlopment until it moves inland into the U.S. or Mexico late next week.

[wxman57]

Hurakan..would you say there is ANY resemblance of circulation there?

The mid-level circulation appears to be gone now. It's your typical tropical wave now.

[Mecklenburg]

I have a question for those who think it will be dead, no matter what time tomorrow (Weds, Aug 13). That question is this: if it is dead. Where did it go? Will it just vanish from the atmosphere? Why? Sorry, now it's several questions. But seriously, where will this tropical wave and its energy go if it is dead tomorrow? My fear is that it lies dormant. Perhaps that is a better assessment of the situation. It certainly looks very meek tonight but has managed to hang around for this long. If it hangs around for another 48 hours then we might have a real problem on our hands down the road. That's the thing- we just don't know. Gotta wait and see.

If you define "dead" as less likely to develop, then it continues moving westward just like any other tropical wave. It'll probably be moving through the Florida Straits early next week and into the eastern Gulf - as a tropical wave. There will still be a chance of redevlopment until it moves inland into the U.S. or Mexico late next week.

if that's the case, i wouldn't wish it would develop now...

[HURAKAN]

[alan1961]

Hurakan..would you say there is ANY resemblance of circulation there?

The mid-level circulation appears to be gone now. It's your typical tropical wave now.

ok wxman, cheers

[Mecklenburg]

the GFS was very right with it in the first place about not developing it... cheers for the GFS for performing very well...

[Honeyko]

After briefly weakening yesterday, the east-coast trough is back with a vengeance, as is the the ULL north of 92, all funneling exhaust down toward 92. So, more capping layers for 92 to choke under.

You are kidding right? Why not try getting your facts straight before posting. THERE IS NO CAP!!!!!!!!!! Derek, who is almost as con-development on this wave as you has even said the last couple of days that there is no cap. There is just a lack of convergence right now.

Chicken-egg: You're not going to get much convergence if rising cu towers aren't able to rise high enough to fully liberate all that latent energy. This thing has its feet in bath-water; if there weren't warm layers aloft, the towers wouldn't be flattening out at 30k; they be blasting up to 50 and looking like bright, red meatballs on color-IR, not sickly yellow-green with spotty orange measles. -- And a tropical system needs that full blow upstairs to wring every last ice crystal out in order to enter runaway intensification mode. 92L has had everything going for it for three days: warm water, a round circulation with plenty of banding and an anticyclone aloft. But it just can't manage to shove stuff upstairs. Why? There's too much warm, sinking air up there at 500-300mb. Why? Because instead of a nice big, fat Bermuda high where it could sink instead, there's a big trough off the east coast which has bulldozed the subsidence region down into the south-central Atlantic.

It likely has to do with the ull near the eastern bahamas that has been shearing all the convection away, or the fact that there is no llc.

The UL isn't shearing the system appreciably; what it IS doing is funneling a lot of subsiding air blown downstream of the east-coast trough. Subsiding air adiabatically warms, and provides a capping layer at 30k, give or take 5k, which 92K's convection isn't able to punch through.

Look at all the subsiding air around the poor thing:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

That trough is just burying the Atlantic under exhaust right now.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 56W/57W S OF
20N OR ABOUT 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
TSTMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

You can see the dry air in the mid levels from the Guadelope sounding. You can also see the shear.

Code: Select all

78897 TFFR Le Raizet, Guadeloupe Observations at 00Z 13 Aug 2008
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV
    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1011.0     11   28.0   24.0     79  19.00     70      6  300.2  356.2  303.6
 1000.0    108   27.2   23.2     79  18.28     70      7  300.4  354.2  303.6
  925.0    792   21.0   17.4     80  13.70     70     11  300.8  341.2  303.2
  854.0   1481   17.4   13.9     80  11.82     75     16  303.9  339.4  306.1
  850.0   1521   17.2   13.5     79  11.57     75     16  304.1  338.9  306.3
  731.0   2795   10.6   -2.4     40   4.41     75     25  310.3  324.4  311.1
  700.0   3155    9.2    0.2     53   5.58     75     28  312.6  330.4  313.7
  686.0   3323    8.6    1.6     61   6.30     78     29  313.8  333.9  315.0
  678.0   3419    8.2   -7.2     33   3.29     80     30  314.3  325.2  315.0
  668.0   3542    7.6  -18.4     14   1.35     79     30  315.1  319.7  315.3
  621.0   4140    5.2  -43.8      1   0.13     74     29  318.9  319.4  319.0
  592.0   4529    3.6  -12.4     30   2.51     71     28  321.5  330.1  322.0
  568.0   4864    2.2  -38.8      3   0.24     68     27  323.6  324.6  323.7
  555.0   5050    1.0  -20.0     19   1.42     67     27  324.4  329.4  324.6
  537.0   5314   -0.7  -49.7      1   0.08     65     26  325.4  325.7  325.4
  500.0   5880   -4.7  -52.7      1   0.06     60     25  327.2  327.5  327.3
  481.0   6177   -6.8  -53.1      1   0.06     55     24  328.2  328.5  328.2
  463.0   6469   -9.0  -53.5      1   0.06     40     10  329.2  329.4  329.2
  400.0   7590  -17.1  -55.1      2   0.05     95      8  332.7  332.9  332.7
  364.0   8290  -22.3  -59.3      2   0.04    129      7  334.8  335.0  334.8
  350.0   8577  -24.5  -29.5     63   0.95    144      6  335.6  339.3  335.8
  333.0   8937  -27.1  -40.1     28   0.35    162      6  336.9  338.3  336.9
  323.0   9156  -28.9  -37.9     42   0.45    173      5  337.3  339.1  337.4
  317.0   9289  -29.9  -50.8     11   0.11    180      5  337.7  338.2  337.8
  308.0   9494  -31.5  -70.5      1   0.01    183      8  338.3  338.4  338.3
  300.0   9680  -32.9  -52.9     12   0.09    185     11  338.9  339.3  338.9
  287.0   9991  -35.3  -46.3     32   0.21    185     16  339.8  340.7  339.8
  267.0  10492  -39.5  -50.5     30   0.14    185     24  340.7  341.3  340.8

[HURAKAN]

RL3AO, thanks for posting that. Conditions are certainly not favorable for development for the time being.

[deltadog03]

Ya there is some dry air at that sounding with 30kt of shear...... However, its pretty far west of the invest and on the east end of the tutt. Either way this has too keep fighting to make it.

[bvigal]

56W/57W S OF 20N OR ABOUT 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.

14N 57W or 17N 53W (last posted 0z position) Where the heck IS this thing????
Is that now 92L at 14N???????????????????????????

[boca]

I guess despite its a weak broken up wave the models still develop this so I have to still watch this pathetic thing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Mecklenburg]

too bad for 92L... it just didn't endure the shear... i guess most people now are joining the poof bandwagon with derek...

[HURAKAN]

Until it stops producing any convection and the wave dissipates, it's alive. Furthermore, it will be moving towards the Bahamas and we have had a few surprises there in the past.

[HURAKAN]

too bad for 92L... it just didn't endure the shear... i guess most people now are joining the poof bandwagon with derek...

To me poof means dead, it's certainly not dead and we're in August. Surprises are bound to happen.

[RL3AO]

There have been quite a few systems that struggle until they reach the Bahamas. I don't need to tell you the name of the last one. Completely writing this thing off is moronic, but it clearly won't develop in the next 48 hours.

[bvigal]

14N - IS ANYBODY PAYING ATTENTION?????????? This is not poof, it's going into the Caribbean, TODAY. Look east of Martinique, not up where you've been watching!