Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Steve H.]

I'm wondering if the GFS is getting a convective feedback issue. The LLC looks to be just north of the east coast of the DR, just NW of the Mona Passage, moving wnw.

[stormchazer]

The bad thing with the GFS run is on that path, it has a lot of time over water. How are the temps there?

** Likelly will not happen anyway.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The 12z GFS runs shows that even if 92l/Fay moves on a further sout and west track the shortwave trough will be enough to drag it to the north even below Cuba.

[gatorcane]

yeah and that is what the NHC is indicating also --

I would throw the GFS out the door unless subsequent runs show the same thing. GFDL and HWRF have been scarily consistent on the North turn WELL before the Eastern GOM and maybe east of Florida.

[Sabanic]

yeah and that is what the NHC is indicating also --

I would throw the GFS out the door unless subsequent runs show the same thing. GFDL and HWRF have been scarily consistent on the North turn WELL before the Eastern GOM and maybe east of Florida.

True gc but the longer it goes to the W - WNW, and the longer it takes to develop the less confidence we can put into what the models are showing at this time.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

yeah and that is what the NHC is indicating also --

I would throw the GFS out the door unless subsequent runs show the same thing. GFDL and HWRF have been scarily consistent on the North turn WELL before the Eastern GOM and maybe east of Florida.

It will be interesting to see if the 12z GFDL and HWRF runs follow the GFS.

[rockyman]

GFS 12z at 150 hours...over southern Georgia

[gatorcane]

yeah and that is what the NHC is indicating also --

I would throw the GFS out the door unless subsequent runs show the same thing. GFDL and HWRF have been scarily consistent on the North turn WELL before the Eastern GOM and maybe east of Florida.

It will be interesting to see if the 12z GFDL and HWRF runs follow the GFS.

It will be and IF they do I may start believing the GFS.

[oyster_reef]

yeah and that is what the NHC is indicating also --

I would throw the GFS out the door unless subsequent runs show the same thing. GFDL and HWRF have been scarily consistent on the North turn WELL before the Eastern GOM and maybe east of Florida.

It will be interesting to see if the 12z GFDL and HWRF runs follow the GFS.

It will be and IF they do I may start believing the GFS.

isn't the GFDL a product of the GFS?

[rockyman]

By the way, the GFS once again has low pressure appearing off the Gulf Coast in about 42 hours...which could lead to a more northerly path of 92L when it appears in the Gulf (according to the 12z GFS in about 78 hours)

[x-y-no]

isn't the GFDL a product of the GFS?

The GFDL runs on the GFS grid, but as last night's 0Z runs demonstrated very well, that doesn't mean it will follow the GFS track.

[oyster_reef]

By the way, the GFS once again has low pressure appearing off the Gulf Coast in about 42 hours...which could lead to a more northerly path of 92L when it appears in the Gulf (according to the 12z GFS in about 78 hours)

can you provide a link? the link I have doesn't work. Thanks

[DESTRUCTION5]

Pretty good agreemrnt here in the early 12z..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Noth e Nogaps is east of last.

[edbri871]

Kinda Funny watching people in NC/Virginia VS People in Florida disputing the models, almost all in favor of the thing coming toward them.

It's much much too early to discount or rely on one model run. Just sit back and let it play out a bit. One thing I know, Living in Fort Myers is that Florida is probably one of the best prepared states for a storm to strike, not to mention, building codes are very strict.

[Bocadude85]

when will the 12z gfdl be out?

[MiamiensisWx]

Kinda Funny watching people in NC/Virginia VS People in Florida disputing the models, almost all in favor of the thing coming toward them.

It's much much too early to discount or rely on one model run. Just sit back and let it play out a bit. One thing I know, Living in Fort Myers is that Florida is probably one of the best prepared states for a storm to strike, not to mention, building codes are very strict.

Bolded portion is too true... thanks for calming some of the unwarranted hype! Your entire post is valid as well.

[Wthrman13]

isn't the GFDL a product of the GFS?

The GFDL runs on the GFS grid, but as last night's 0Z runs demonstrated very well, that doesn't mean it will follow the GFS track.

Well, it doesn't run ON the GFS grid, it just uses the GFS grid as background and boundary conditions. It then does its own high-resolution analysis of the cyclone vortex structure, and then runs a model (with somewhat different treatments of the equations of motion and physical processes than the GFS) on the higher-res grid. That's why it can have a different track from the GFS, because of these differences. In general though, because of the GFS boundary conditions, it will have a similar track most of the time to what the GFS shows. The same is true for the GFDN vs. the NOGAPS, for the same reason.

[x-y-no]

isn't the GFDL a product of the GFS?

The GFDL runs on the GFS grid, but as last night's 0Z runs demonstrated very well, that doesn't mean it will follow the GFS track.

Well, it doesn't run ON the GFS grid, it just uses the GFS grid as background and boundary conditions. It then does its own high-resolution analysis of the cyclone vortex structure, and then runs a model (with somewhat different treatments of the equations of motion and physical processes than the GFS) on the higher-res grid. That's why it can have a different track from the GFS, because of these differences. In general though, because of the GFS boundary conditions, it will have a similar track most of the time to what the GFS shows. The same is true for the GFDN vs. the NOGAPS, for the same reason.

Thanks for that more complete and precise explanation.

[artist]

isn't the GFDL a product of the GFS?

The GFDL runs on the GFS grid, but as last night's 0Z runs demonstrated very well, that doesn't mean it will follow the GFS track.

Well, it doesn't run ON the GFS grid, it just uses the GFS grid as background and boundary conditions. It then does its own high-resolution analysis of the cyclone vortex structure, and then runs a model (with somewhat different treatments of the equations of motion and physical processes than the GFS) on the higher-res grid. That's why it can have a different track from the GFS, because of these differences. In general though, because of the GFS boundary conditions, it will have a similar track most of the time to what the GFS shows. The same is true for the GFDN vs. the NOGAPS, for the same reason.

thanks for that wthrmn13.

[salescall]

Kinda Funny watching people in NC/Virginia VS People in Florida disputing the models, almost all in favor of the thing coming toward them.

It's much much too early to discount or rely on one model run. Just sit back and let it play out a bit. One thing I know, Living in Fort Myers is that Florida is probably one of the best prepared states for a storm to strike, not to mention, building codes are very strict.

I'm from Upstate SC and hoping that we could get a little rain from it (just no damage). We are in a 2.5 year drought, and I can understand why people are backing the model that has it coming toward them. Not that anyone would wish a violent storm on themselves, but a good soaking rain is desperately needed from Fl to VA.