ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[blp]

Interesting to look at the convergence in last 24 hours.

You can see below the negative convergence (divergence) take over from the SW and chock off the competing SWrd circulation starting at 1800UTC. That would explain why it helped consolidate the system a little better in the afternoon. So in a way it helped and in another way it hurt by sucking out convergence further North. Either way I think this will start firing some good convection in a few hours. Seems like a bump in the road for now.

[ConvergenceZone]

It still looks good on this sat pic.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

not quite, i agree with derek, it's in time for it's decline... the convection seems to be spreading out coz it's about to be ka-poofed

It's not ka-poofing it's ka-slowly ka-organizing

The thing is, folks have been saying that for the last 2 nights "that it's organizing" and yet most of the mets that have posted on this storm on here say that it looks worse and more disorganized than ever.... On the tropical update 2 hours ago, Steve Lyons said that it's going to be going through a bad environment for the next 2 days, and I just don't think there will be anything left of it by then since it can't seem to get going when the environment isn't so bad...

[Derek Ortt]

time for bed

would not be surprised to see a dead system by morning

[Derek Ortt]

if you want to track a developing disturbance, have a good look at 93L. That is what a real developing system looks like

[Mecklenburg]

i agree with derek, just look at this thing now, it looks very deprived of convection, how could anyone else say here that it's gonna be a TD soon when in fact it looks worse than before...

[artist]

very nice! Thank you senorpepr! You may not get much thanks but I believe we all really appreciate all these types of things you do for us such as the letter and day things. Thank you!

[Honeyko]

After briefly weakening yesterday, the east-coast trough is back with a vengeance, as is the the ULL north of 92, all funneling exhaust down toward 92.

So, more capping layers for 92 to choke under.

[artist]

I can't thank the mets and the other pros we have around here for all their commentary and patience with us all enough. It's so good to see so many here this year as well as some of the old faithfuls returning. I would love to see some of MWatkins video updates return as well.
Thank you for starting this thread.

[senorpepr]

very nice! Thank you senorpepr! You may not get much thanks but I believe we all really appreciate all these types of things you do for us such as the letter and day things. Thank you!

Thanks! It's feedback like this that keeps me going.

[GeneratorPower]

Senor, how 'come we don't see much of you in the regular discussion threads. Is that not your cup o' tea? Love what you put out, as always.

[cheezyWXguy]

After briefly weakening yesterday, the east-coast trough is back with a vengeance, as is the the ULL north of 92, all funneling exhaust down toward 92.

So, more capping layers for 92 to choke under.

You are kidding right? Why not try getting your facts straight before posting. THERE IS NO CAP!!!!!!!!!! Derek, who is almost as con-development on this wave as you has even said the last couple of days that there is no cap. There is just a lack of convergence right now. It likely has to do with the ull near the eastern bahamas that has been shearing all the convection away, or the fact that there is no llc.

[Stratosphere747]

12/2345 UTC 16.5N 52.8W TOO WEAK 92L
12/1745 UTC 15.7N 53.2W T1.0/1.0 92L
12/1145 UTC 15.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 92L

[hurricanetrack]

I have a question for those who think it will be dead, no matter what time tomorrow (Weds, Aug 13). That question is this: if it is dead. Where did it go? Will it just vanish from the atmosphere? Why? Sorry, now it's several questions. But seriously, where will this tropical wave and its energy go if it is dead tomorrow? My fear is that it lies dormant. Perhaps that is a better assessment of the situation. It certainly looks very meek tonight but has managed to hang around for this long. If it hangs around for another 48 hours then we might have a real problem on our hands down the road. That's the thing- we just don't know. Gotta wait and see.

[Stratosphere747]

You can't get so locked into any one system fully developing. The vast majority across most every tropical board, including this one do so. It's an inherent psyche that each possess. This year what I've noticed with the new color code of the NHC is that folks get so locked in to imminent development that they simply won't sit back and look at the overall picture.

Right now 92l is probably at its worst organizational stage since it was declared an invest, period. A decent MLC is about all it has. Does that mean it won't make a comeback and further develop tomorrow or the next day? Absolutely not. The fact is it's really struggling right now and the bigger question is can it hold on to enough of an identity, including just being a moderate tropical wave, to do so.

Staying objective when following the tropics can be a hard trait to maintain.

[hurricanetrack]

Well, for what ever reason, the usually reliable GFDL still thinks it will be alive and well in 126 hours:

126 22.9 77.1 315./10.0


We shall see. Time for bed.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 650
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/130540.shtml

[Steve]

>>so far the atlantic hasn't been really friendly... i wonder what less can we expect for the remainder of the season

Why? Seriously? What does this have to do with the discussion on 92L? Are you bipolar? Do you have mania issues with weather? Do you stomp your feet alot when you don't get your way? So far the Atlantic (Basin) has spawned one of the most active year-to-date seasons in history. We are up to 5/2/1 with 3 landfalls, and it just turned August 13th. If it was up to me, troll, season cancel, whining and other such posts in the active storm forums should bar that user for 3 days from participating. I'm not here to see whining, I'm here to get storm information and ideas about the tropics. Thanks.

Steve

[txag2005]

Well, for what ever reason, the usually reliable GFDL still thinks it will be alive and well in 126 hours:

126 22.9 77.1 315./10.0


We shall see. Time for bed.

i'm just learning. I know the first sets of numbers are hours and then coordinates. What does the 315./10.0 mean?

[RL3AO]

Well, for what ever reason, the usually reliable GFDL still thinks it will be alive and well in 126 hours:

126 22.9 77.1 315./10.0


We shall see. Time for bed.

i'm just learning. I know the first sets of numbers are hours and then coordinates. What does the 315./10.0 mean?

315/10.0 means 315 degrees (northwest) at 10.0 knots.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's hope the 0z EURO is wrong...goodness....lookout E GOM.