ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Thunder44]

[quote="wxsouth]

TRMM image from late in the afternoon provides good clues as to why SSD is still coming up with a 2.0 on the system. There appears to be a center in the lower levels around 13N 51W. At the very least...taking into account the westward motion...its a very sharp trough.

Not a system which looks likes its headed towards much intensification...but not an open wave either.

That's where I located a LLC earlier. It looks to be near 53W now.

[Innotech]

this storm is definitely not dead. It looks better now than it did even a couple of hours ago.

[Derek Ortt]

this thing looked much better yesterday

Pretty reds on the IR does not mean the system is looking better. yesterday, we had banding features. Today, that has disappeared

[Innotech]

this thing looked much better yesterday

Pretty reds on the IR does not mean the system is looking better. yesterday, we had banding features. Today, that has disappeared

Im just focusing on the fact that it is still there.
Its more likely that it will fizzle out in the crazy shear ahead of it, but I want to be prepared just in case it doesnt.

[cheezyWXguy]

this thing looked much better yesterday

Pretty reds on the IR does not mean the system is looking better. yesterday, we had banding features. Today, that has disappeared

yeah, im pretty sure whatever part of a llc it had earlier today is now gone...i cant even find rotation in the nighttime visible loop. Honestly, I dont think this has a chance anymore...a real shame(not cuz i wanted it to hurt anyone, just wanted something interesting to track).I really am shocked, considering the fact that the day it was named 94l, the RI index was an astounding 43%

[Thunder44]

NHC still not giving up on this system. Still in orange:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

2. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[Sanibel]

Red IR dot shows an east shear. System maintains very weak mode. Maybe Caribbean transfer will allow convection dot to align.


This is nocturnal flaring (energy):

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks kind of sorry-looking right now. If the nighttime convection dies down, there won't be much to look at

[ts_kakolina]

16/0545 UTC 12.9N 53.3W T2.0/2.0 94L

[abajan]

Looks like some heavy duty rain heading my way (if overnight convection holds together). This morning has certainly dawned darker than normal for this time of year and I can see some cumulonimbus clouds to the east. Also, outside's wet, so we had rain sometime during the night while I was fast asleep.

[KWT]

Yet despite what everyone is saying we still have 2.0 from dvorak which has held for 24hrs now, thats got to be worth something even if it does look pretty rubbish.

[Chacor]

No it doesn't. There are a number of different agencies that do Dvorak fixes and the fact that one agency chooses to persist with a T2.0 for some reason or other should not be taken alone. I don't currently have ftp access but if you do you can check TAFB's fixes at ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/fal942008.dat.

[KWT]

Yep I know there are other agencies but none the less we've got one constantly stating 2.0 which if nothing else is interesting I think. I know it looks rubbish and it probably doesn't have a circulation but its still curious why they are still holding 2.0.

[abajan]

Yep I know there are other agencies but none the less we've got one constantly stating 2.0 which if nothing else is interesting I think. I know it looks rubbish and it probably doesn't have a circulation but its still curious why they are still holding 2.0.

And the GFDL model insists on 94L becoming a storm with its center passing just south of me this afternoon!

[ts_kakolina]

[Chacor]

Key word in that graphic is "possible". Not "definite". The circle will stay there until the NHC downgrades it in the TWO.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[dizzyfish]

Whether it does or doesn't those in the islands are going to get some weather out of that big blob! Hopefully no flooding rains though.

[KWT]

Well even if it dopesn't develop still looks like there is going to be some decent convection hitting the windwaard islands over the next 12-24hrs.