SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[KWT]

Yeah the system is slowly weakening now as you can see the eyewall opening up now though interestingly as squarethecircle says the various types of sat imagery shows different parts of the eyewall being open, strange!

[Squarethecircle]

The storm is shrinking as well, though the eye retains a very impressive structure.

[Pedro Fernández]

Compare:

Yesterday:


Today:


The size of the eye is almost the same (too much bigscale to see any difference I think...) but the size of the system is smaller today and top clouds temperature is warmer...

[HURAKAN]

Hondo means deep, so now it's becoming shallower!?!?!? Histories mysteries.

[Squarethecircle]

Ok, now it's starting to fall apart. I predict that Hondo's reign of defying the laws of physics while at the same time being fairly to quite intense will end relatively soon.

[Cyclenall]

I see this often in annular systems, where the convection around the eye warms and the shape starts to get worse, while the eye shape and design reminds very similar.

[Squarethecircle]

Convection rapidly decreasing... I think it'll run out of convection before anything else will kill it. How marginal are the SSTs?

Edit: They're actually fairly warm, 27 degrees-ish.

I think the JTWC might actually have it right with the 110 knot figure, although I think it still looks cat-4 ish.

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

Yeah, pretty freaking insane, eh?

Soon the convection will die away and the eye will be the only thing left.

[Crostorm]

:uarrow: Yeah, pretty freaking insane, eh?

Soon the convection will die away and the eye will be the only thing left.

It is insane!

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 575
WTIO30 FMEE 100028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 86.5E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.9S/85.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 22.1S/84.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 22.7S/83.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 22.9S/82.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 22.5S/81.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 21.7S/79.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5
T-NUMBER STILL PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
EXISTS.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU PASS AT 1951Z) STILL SHOWS A WEAKNESS
IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EYEWALL.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PRESENT GUIDANCE WITH NWP IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HONDO SHOULD TRACKS SOUTHWARDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE EAST, TOWARDS A MIDLEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO
THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT, HONDO SHOULD
HAVE
A RIDE OVE
R THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS
THAN
26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Just how is it keeping its eye perfectly intact amidst all that weakening?!

[Squarethecircle]

Through the magic of annularism. Many a time has it brought forth a WTF or OMFG from the onlooking weather watcher!

[Coredesat]

The eyewall is beginning to open up on the northern side:

[Coredesat]

Still looks very impressive on vis:



But not so much so on IR, the eye has lost its roundness:

[Cyclenall]

:uarrow: Through the magic of annularism. Many a time has it brought forth a WTF or OMFG from the onlooking weather watcher!

This is truth.

The eye is becoming less round, that always happens next.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

095
WTIO30 FMEE 101250

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 86.5E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 230 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 230
50 KT NE: 055 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 055

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 21.9S/85.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 22.9S/84.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 23.2S/84.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 22.8S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 22.2S/81.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 21.2S/79.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=5.0
LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TILD BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
(37V) AND THE OBVIOUS ONE (85H), UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHERLY TO
WESTNORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
HONDO IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS
DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER THAT, HONDO SHOULD HAVE A RIDE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN
26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0033Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.

[Coredesat]

Eye now mostly gone. If you were to believe the JTWC, this is what a 100 kt cyclone looks like; things like this are why they're not the official word.