ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Recurve]

Pretty interesting watching the AVN loop, seeing the eastern blob bloom and then diminish, and a seemingly separate blob to the east bloom as the western one dies. Does this throw much of a wrench into the models?

What are the chances of it escaping steering winds from the southwest...are they deep and wide for the next few days?

[Gustywind]

OOH (MARR???) MY GODNESS extremely pretty large system and it's surely an euphemisma , does not in any case to gone and give up, TD 15 continues to exibit an impressive presentation each hour!!! Damn that's awesome, does not want to imagine this thing as a storm or a CAT 1 cane??? It's a game or not? lol, seems that all the convection to the eastof TD 15 is sweepting all the Leewards , rain , rain has not stopped since 1 hour here added to isolated tstorms, a lightning has just bright me .

[Weatherfreak000]

Very clearly a Tropical Storm if your following the VDM.


Should see the upgrade.

[Ad Novoxium]

Side note: if this becomes Omar, it would be the first time in Atlantic history that that name was used.

Although it does have a bad history - there was a really bad Typhoon Omar in 1992...

Since when has that stopped us? Don't forget 1984's Typhoon Ike. Heck, that was a year with this names list in the Atl. (of course, Ike was a typhoon)

[Chacor]

Very clearly a Tropical Storm if your following the VDM.


Should see the upgrade.

FL winds 34 kt doesn't warrant an upgrade at all.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
000
AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 69.4W AT
14/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 310 NM SW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...A NE MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE TO
PUERTO RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
160 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN
60W-70W.

[cycloneye]

13/2345 UTC 14.6N 69.6W T2.5/2.5 15L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Gustywind]

13/2345 UTC 14.6N 69.6W T2.5/2.5 15L -- Atlantic Ocean

Close to TS status? given the numbers

[Just Joshing You]

Those numbers *are* Tropical Storm status, no?

[AJC3]

Those numbers *are* Tropical Storm status, no?

...via a satellite estimation of intensity using the Dvorak technique. However, there's a plane in the system actually *measuring* the intensity, which would will be weighted much more strongly than any satellite estimate.

[CrazyC83]

FL winds support 30 kt. SFMR support 40-45 kt, although reliability is an issue.

[Gustywind]

FL winds support 30 kt. SFMR support 40-45 kt, although reliability is an issue.

So TD is on the verge of... and should be classified as ?...Omar.? or not?

[Sanibel]

IR and shape is signaling potential.

Virgin Islands should get more than Fay with this one!

[Gustywind]

Puerto Rico Flooding Likely
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 13, 2008 8:35 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
A large tropical depression has formed in the eastern Caribbean Sea and may become Tropical Storm Omar by Tuesday. Tropical Depression 15, at 8 p.m. EDT, was centered about 355 miles SW of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Some strengthening is likely as the depression remains relatively stationary. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Very heavy rain (and the threat of significant flooding) is expected to continue. This rain will affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Parts of Puerto Rico may see 15-30 inches of rain this week.

The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm Tuesday and begin moving northeastward.

[cycloneye]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Correct thread:


Still a depression. Between recon SFMR and FL winds, could have gone either way.

[gatorcane]

very interesting discussion, that is telling me a clear cut recurve path NE is not as certain now:

11:00PM EST disco snippet:

THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION
IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.

[Sanibel]

Whoa!

[Sanibel]

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE.

I'm glad you posted this because I was observing this from storm movement on satellite but didn't want to embarrass myself if it was wrong.

[gatorcane]

well Kyle was picked up ultimately, but this one is a bit farther south.....if the trough misses, another one is coming later in the week, but probably will amplify too far north.

the watching and waiting game continues.