ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Center seems to be around 31.3N 75.2W with a pressure of 1003mb.

[wxman57]

I wish the NHC would put out SOMETHING. I can't leave work (for my hot, unpowered house) until it's either declared an STS or not. Doesn't look as impressive as earlier today, but convection is increasing again northwest of the center. Interesting that we've seen no reports from recon on the core (temps, etc.). I'd think that would be the first thing they'd look at.

[wsquared77]

Craven County schools on a 2-hour delay tomorrow.

We live right on the river in New Bern and it's already up much higher than it ever got with Hannah. Doesn't seem like it's going to quit coming up for a while either. Good thing our house is about 75 feet up a hill from the water!

[seahawkjd]

Wxman57 what do you think is causing them to not upgrade it or really say anything? We're already getting 4-6 feet of flooding in some parts of Carteret County, NC and 50 mph gusts so it doesn't really make any difference if they upgrade it or not, but still it baffles me seeing some of the things they upgraded in the past.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 what do you think is causing them to not upgrade it or really say anything? We're already getting 4-6 feet of flooding in some parts of Carteret County, NC and 50 mph gusts so it doesn't really make any difference if they upgrade it or not, but still it baffles me seeing some of the things they upgraded in the past.

They're waiting for the recon to complete its mission before issuing anything.

[CrazyC83]

Wxman57 what do you think is causing them to not upgrade it or really say anything? We're already getting 4-6 feet of flooding in some parts of Carteret County, NC and 50 mph gusts so it doesn't really make any difference if they upgrade it or not, but still it baffles me seeing some of the things they upgraded in the past.

They're waiting for the recon to complete its mission before issuing anything.

At least until we get a VDM with conclusive data.

[wxman57]

The lack of a VDM may signal no reclassification to STS. Look at a WV loop - all that dry air wrapping around the low now is really cutting it off from the moisture. No convection near the center any more.

[orion]

Yeah, wxman, I was just looking at that on the wv loop. It does look like it might be closing in some where that new convection is forming just to the north of the dry air wedge. Also, looking at the skew-t from Morehead City http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KMHX_inv.html there is a lot of dry air in the midlevels. Of course that is a good distance from the system, but also means there may not be much moisture (at least at those levels) to work with in the direction it's heading.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My odds for this becoming a named system has droped to 50% before landfall.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The Hurricane Force wind warning put out for the waters by NC
means regardless of classification you are gonna get hurricane
force winds out on that water; personally I would have designated
this a subtropical storm with winds of 75 mph; Subtropical
because the center is cool core as opposed to warm core; too much
cold air; what did RECON find? cool core or hot core?

Also strong north winds from this low is bringing cold air down into florida.
Tonight's lows in inland north Florida will drop to near 60 Degrees. That
with gusty winds is COLD for this time of year.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Hurricane Force wind warning put out for the waters by NC
means regardless of classification you are gonna get hurricane
force winds out on that water; personally I would have designated
this a subtropical storm with winds of 75 mph; Subtropical
because the center is cool core as opposed to warm core; too much
cold air; what did RECON find? cool core or hot core?

Also strong north winds from this low is bringing cold air down into florida.
Tonight's lows in inland north Florida will drop to near 60 Degrees. That
with gusty winds is COLD for this time of year.

No vortex, so it must of been cold core. So this is more or less a nor'easter. You see that the convection is forming far to the north of the LLC, that means it is not warm core.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A RECENTLY COMPLETED AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ALONG WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS NOT ACQUIRED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED TO NORTH AND WEST AND ARE
LARGELY UNRELATED TO THE SMALL CIRCULATION SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT.
THIS STRUCTURE IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF AN EXTRATROPICAL WEATHER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL
FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So then Extratropical cyclone with winds of 75 mph...?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mission is over, STS can come out any time now...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A RECENTLY COMPLETED AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ALONG WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS NOT ACQUIRED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED TO NORTH AND WEST AND ARE
LARGELY UNRELATED TO THE SMALL CIRCULATION SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT.
THIS STRUCTURE IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF AN EXTRATROPICAL WEATHER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL
FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

I'm pretty sure with out convection and less then 18 hours over water that this will never be named. But I've been surprized before. That is just my option.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Hurricane Force wind warning put out for the waters by NC
means regardless of classification you are gonna get hurricane
force winds out on that water; personally I would have designated
this a subtropical storm with winds of 75 mph; Subtropical
because the center is cool core as opposed to warm core; too much
cold air; what did RECON find? cool core or hot core?

Also strong north winds from this low is bringing cold air down into florida.
Tonight's lows in inland north Florida will drop to near 60 Degrees. That
with gusty winds is COLD for this time of year.

No vortex, so it must of been cold core. So this is more or less a nor'easter. You see that the convection is forming far to the north of the LLC, that means it is not warm core.

HDOBs have temp and dewpoint, so if someone was motivated enough they could go back and see if this was any warmer near the center. I suppose, based on lack of an upgrade, not enough warming/none at all for an upgrade.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If this wasn't an extra-tropical storm, I'd be musing about center relocation closer to deeper convection and possible mid-level rotation.


But I have no idea if there is validity to that in a system that is still strongly baroclinic.

[HURAKAN]

It's moving very little and it's over the Gulf Stream. There is a lot of dry air, but I would expect to see convection fire during the night as we move towards DMAX. It takes some time to go from non-tropical to subtropical and this system formed less than 24 hrs ago. Be patient and don't say something that may not hold true at the end. Still, for the residents of the Atlantic coast would feel the same no matter its designation.

[CrazyC83]

If this wasn't an extra-tropical storm, I'd be musing about center relocation closer to deeper convection and possible mid-level rotation.


But I have no idea if there is validity to that in a system that is still strongly baroclinic.

Pretty hard to relocate when it already has a well-defined circulation...that isn't the issue here. Transitioning from extratropical to tropical can often take days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was right!!! I said extratropical just seconds before seeing
that post about NHC saying it is extratropical- that makes sense
since extratropical systems bring the cold air down the back side
Lows in the upper 50s north central FL.