ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[El Nino]

OMG that's a big storm for the Eastern Seabord according to ECM !

[Ed Mahmoud]

Matt's cone is certainly interesting and bold as well! While my very early thoughts are Ike makes his right turn further east than that ... I'm generally with the rest of you in that my cone is Tampico to Tampa. Not ready yet to hone in further.

Although I'm in Austin, I come down to H-town enough on business that I could repay my debt easily enough.

Tampico to Taunton?




Fits Bastardi's thinking. Big swing from 0Z Euro, I want to see this repeat before I get excited.

[Brent]

Matt's cone is certainly interesting and bold as well! While my very early thoughts are Ike makes his right turn further east than that ... I'm generally with the rest of you in that my cone is Tampico to Tampa. Not ready yet to hone in further.

Although I'm in Austin, I come down to H-town enough on business that I could repay my debt easily enough.

Tampico to Taunton?




Fits Bastardi's thinking. Big swing from 0Z Euro, I want to see this repeat before I get excited.

WOW.

[caneseddy]

Matt's cone is certainly interesting and bold as well! While my very early thoughts are Ike makes his right turn further east than that ... I'm generally with the rest of you in that my cone is Tampico to Tampa. Not ready yet to hone in further.

Although I'm in Austin, I come down to H-town enough on business that I could repay my debt easily enough.

Tampico to Taunton?




Fits Bastardi's thinking. Big swing from 0Z Euro, I want to see this repeat before I get excited.

Funny thing is that when Ike's position was plotted on the map of storms within 300 miles of that location, one of the hurricanes listed was the 1938 Long Island Express. The Euro kind of has a similar setup. If this holds, watch JB go crazy.

Just something to think about

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Japanese model looks like 0Z Euro.


AccuWx PPV subscribers can see this picture...

[ROCK]

follows his big sister,,,ridge does not build in,,,,hmmmm, I have seen big swings in the EURO before....I will jump when the rest of the guidance jumps...

[KWT]

Quite probably they will split the difference rock...but even the HWRF is north of its previous run and the GFDL takes longer for its WSW dive to start and gets further north than previous runs as well.

I'm not totally sure about the ECM just yet but its set=up looks far more likely and is a nice compramise from the very odd track the GFS takes and the UKMO's probably too far north track.

[Portastorm]

Tampico to Taunton?


Fits Bastardi's thinking. Big swing from 0Z Euro, I want to see this repeat before I get excited.

Yeah Ed, I was thinking the very same thing. It almost looks like JB drew this model map up himself, given what he has been saying about Ike thus far and his insistence of at least one "major" hitting further up the East Coast.

[jasons2k]

Euro is already showing a possible weakness later in the period and movement towards the WNW/NW.

Take a breath and wait a few days before believing any track towards or even hinting at something moving into the GOM.

Yes it does Scott, be we are talking almost 1,800 miles and 9 days to verify....come on even you can admit that there could be a weakness or there could be not....way to early....

as far as the beer bet. I am only doing it for fun as I would love to see Ed eat his "Texas season over" thread he put out in August....

Paul

Well, yeah, I have to agree such a prognostication in August is way too premature. (Sorry Ed - I know you had data/modelling to back it up, but still) Even September is pushing it.

I said the same thing back in 2005 on about Sept. 15, there was just nothing there, but two weeks later I found myself under a hurricane warning and providing shelter for my best friend, his wife, and 4 kids from Galveston.

WRT models: as we all know, they can and will change, esp. in the 7-14+ timeframe. Just a few days ago the Euro was showing a 1-2 punch for NOLA with Hanna making landfall very close to there.

[jasons2k]

Tampico to Tremont, ME might be the better cone given some of the runs. We'll see what happens.

[Portastorm]

It's hard to argue with the NHC's 5-day track. Other than Fay (which everyone pretty much missed), the NHC has been spot on with their forecasts this season. They've really done a super job in terms of track forecasts.

[cycloneye]

493
WHXX01 KWBC 030024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC WED SEP 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080903 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080903 0000 080903 1200 080904 0000 080904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 47.2W 20.8N 50.7W 22.1N 54.3W 23.6N 57.5W
BAMD 19.7N 47.2W 20.7N 50.9W 21.8N 54.4W 22.7N 57.7W
BAMM 19.7N 47.2W 20.7N 50.9W 22.0N 54.4W 23.2N 57.7W
LBAR 19.7N 47.2W 20.9N 50.6W 22.3N 54.1W 23.8N 57.7W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 68KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080905 0000 080906 0000 080907 0000 080908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 59.5W 24.6N 63.2W 23.4N 69.2W 22.5N 75.5W
BAMD 22.9N 60.5W 21.6N 66.4W 19.4N 73.2W 17.3N 79.1W
BAMM 24.2N 60.1W 23.8N 64.5W 22.3N 70.2W 21.0N 75.9W
LBAR 25.0N 60.9W 25.3N 66.0W 23.5N 71.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 59KTS 61KTS 66KTS
DSHP 66KTS 59KTS 61KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 47.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 44.2W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 41.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

The GFS based runs do seem to be diverging somewhat away from the other models in that its still showing that WSW plunge, indeed the 18z GFDL slams Ike into Hispaniola at 940mbs. HWRF keeps this further north, the Nogaps shows a curve towards the WNW again at the end of its run, the 12z ECM went right upto SE florida before diverting up the east coast and UKMO is well out right on its own...

Who knows the 0z runs may agree better again?

[bahamaswx]

The GFS based runs do seem to be diverging somewhat away from the other models in that its still showing that WSW plunge, indeed the 18z GFDL slams Ike into Hispaniola at 940mbs. HWRF keeps this further north, the Nogaps shows a curve towards the WNW again at the end of its run, the 12z ECM went right upto SE florida before diverting up the east coast and UKMO is well out right on its own...

Who knows the 0z runs may agree better again?

If we throw out UKMET--which seems to be the norm these days!--then model agreement still is fairly good for 120hrs out. But I agree, the 0z runs will be interesting.

[Weatherfreak000]

UKMET has been downright abysmal this year...alongside NOGAPS....GFS, GFDL and HWRF however have been damn good...


In my opinion considering its training slightly more North than projected it may indeed miss the WSW plunge...however this puts SFL at more risk.

[Sanibel]

In my opinion considering its training slightly more North than projected it may indeed miss the WSW plunge...however this puts SFL at more risk.

Or not as deep. They are recognizing that High as it is now. Not sure what it will be after Hanna leaves.

[ROCK]

NHC highly confident on the next 5 days as the ridge builds in with Ike.....as Hanna departs....

GOM bound? CMC thinks Yucatan.....we shall see.....

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

this is something you don't read in an NHC discussion about a system as far out as Ike is

THE RIDGE BECOMES SO STRONG BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT MODELS TURN IKE ON A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

At this point I'm feeling better Ike passes well south of Florida...maybe even the CONUS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0251.shtml

[ROCK]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

this is something you don't read in an NHC discussion about a system as far out as Ike is

THE RIDGE BECOMES SO STRONG BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT MODELS TURN IKE ON A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

At this point I'm feeling better Ike passes well south of Florida...maybe even the CONUS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0251.shtml

might do a MX trip as suggested by the CMC.....that would be odd for Sept....but this year has been odd...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll be asleep then, but if 0Z Euro is close to 12Z Euro, and has model support from anywhere but the UK Met, I'll start doubting the Gulf of Mexico scenario.