ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Gotta admit if the westerly track does come off total props to the ECM, it would have nailed it...

[HURAKAN]

A double-punch to the US? Vote for the Gustav-Hanna ticket.

[KWT]

Well looks like the models bend it back WSW, does look like a Bahamas and Flordia threat, wonder if this will pull a Betsy on us?

[SouthFLTropics]

A double-punch to the US? Vote for the Gustav-Hanna ticket.

It looks as if the Gustav-Hanna ticket has the Southern states covered...No hanging chads for Florida this time!

[KWT]

Wow doesn't that look impressive!

Will be very interesting to see what the 06z GFDL suggests...

[gatorcane]

Gotta admit if the westerly track does come off total props to the ECM, it would have nailed it...

ECm has done remarkably well this year I have to admit.

[Trader Ron]

IF TD 8 does verify and whacks Florida, you know where it could go after that.

[Meso]

06z HRWF

Maxes out at 100kt and then weakens

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ericinmia]

Scorpion, that Euro looks wicked. Can barely see our state, buried under that intense storm - the size of it indicates that a major part of the peninsula would be affected. And not only FL - it looks like the Bahamas gets a huge slam, too. We can only hope this doesn't verify.

Wow! That is a MASSIVE shift in the guidance

That's what worries me - the complete shift of so many models, they're obviously picking up on something. As recently as yesterday morning, they mainly showed recurvature; today is a completely different picture.

actually the euro and the bams were all over it yesterday, the others have come onboard so lets not get to crazy thinking this was a complete surprise

Exactly...

I can't even remember at this point how many runs for the past few days the Euro has been predicting the same output... I'm pointing the blame for the 'suprise' some are getting here to the fact that the majority of model plots out there don't list some of the major players. I would personally rather see the Euro listed instead of the Nogaps... but that isn't going to happen since they charge crazy amounts of money for access to their high res output, and it's closely guarded.

[Canelaw99]

I'm never comfortable when one of the models continues to show the same result run after run after run, especially when it's the result the Euro has been showing Definitely one to keep my eyes on this weekend and through the upcoming week....

[attallaman]

IF TD 8 does verify and whacks Florida, you know where it could go after that.

Any chance it could cross over or come under FL and enter the GOM?

[Canelaw99]

This far out just about anything is possible, but it's way too early to speculate....we all just have to watch and wait. If I lived on the Gulf Coast, my eyes would be on Gustav before Hanna....

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 281243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 1200 080829 0000 080829 1200 080830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 58.7W 21.3N 60.6W 22.4N 62.6W 23.6N 64.4W
BAMD 20.3N 58.7W 21.0N 60.0W 22.0N 61.6W 23.0N 63.3W
BAMM 20.3N 58.7W 21.0N 60.3W 21.9N 62.1W 22.8N 63.9W
LBAR 20.3N 58.7W 21.5N 60.2W 22.8N 62.0W 24.1N 63.7W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 1200 080831 1200 080901 1200 080902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 66.3W 26.2N 69.5W 27.1N 71.3W 26.3N 73.4W
BAMD 24.0N 65.1W 25.9N 68.2W 26.9N 69.4W 26.0N 69.8W
BAMM 23.6N 65.8W 25.1N 68.8W 25.6N 70.6W 24.8N 72.0W
LBAR 25.2N 65.7W 27.1N 69.2W 27.6N 71.0W 27.0N 72.3W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS 68KTS
DSHP 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 58.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 57.3W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 56.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.



The GFS also appears to be picking up on something around day 8 impacting Southern FL. Note strong ridging (big Bermuda High feature in the Western Atlantic):

[gtsmith]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.

come on gater...in that pic the storm is certainly not "off the SE coast of FL". For that matter Gustav is the same distance from the west coast of FL as Hanna is to the east...but you're not asying Gustav is off the SW coast of FL are you? Quit the fear mongering

[gatorcane]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.

come on gater...in that pic the storm is certainly not "off the SE coast of FL". For that matter Gustav is the same distance from the west coast of FL as Hanna is to the east...but you're not asying Gustav is off the SW coast of FL are you? Quit the fear mongering

I am not attempting to fear monger.

To me that is certainly off the SE Coast of FL and since the Euro has it moving west, I'm just interpreting what the model is saying. I purposely did not show the 7+ day forecast by Euro.

[gtsmith]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.

come on gater...in that pic the storm is certainly not "off the SE coast of FL". For that matter Gustav is the same distance from the west coast of FL as Hanna is to the east...but you're not asying Gustav is off the SW coast of FL are you? Quit the fear mongering

I am not attempting to fear monger.

To me that is certainly off the SE Coast of FL and since the Euro has it moving west, I'm just interpreting what the model is saying. I purposely did not show the 7+ day forecast by Euro.

Well I respectfully disagree with the phrasing...I do agree with the potential threat that Hanna may be to us here in FL...but we can take this discussion about whether in that pic she is off the Se coast of FL to PMs before the mods slam us.

[Bocadude85]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.

come on gater...in that pic the storm is certainly not "off the SE coast of FL". For that matter Gustav is the same distance from the west coast of FL as Hanna is to the east...but you're not asying Gustav is off the SW coast of FL are you? Quit the fear mongering

The picture he posted looks like Hanna is off the South Florida coast to me with a big high to the north of her causing her to move west. He is not causing fear in anyone he is showing what the Euro has been showing for a few days now and if you play that animation of the Euro then you will see that the Euro has Hanna slam South Florida.

[Sal Collaziano]

Is it just me or does it look like Hanna stalls for a couple of days before moving on toward the southeast coast of Florida? The reason I'm REALLY, REALLY keeping an eye on this storm is because of this:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101830&p=1793413#p1793413

The picture he posted looks like Hanna is off the South Florida coast to me with a big high to the north of her causing her to move west. He is not causing fear in anyone he is showing what the Euro has been showing for a few days now and if you play that animation of the Euro then you will see that the Euro has Hanna slam South Florida.

[gtsmith]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.

come on gater...in that pic the storm is certainly not "off the SE coast of FL". For that matter Gustav is the same distance from the west coast of FL as Hanna is to the east...but you're not asying Gustav is off the SW coast of FL are you? Quit the fear mongering

The picture he posted looks like Hanna is off the South Florida coast to me with a big high to the north of her causing her to move west. He is not causing fear in anyone he is showing what the Euro has been showing for a few days now and if you play that animation of the Euro then you will see that the Euro has Hanna slam South Florida.

I am fully aware of all the models...and I will retract my statement about "fear mongering" that was a bit over the top - my apologies gatercane...I know the movement all the models are predicting...but I cannot agree that the storm in that pic, which is a good 200-300 miles SE of the coast of florida can be considered "off the coast"...sorry, just my opinion. Off the coast to me, if I have to define it, would be 100 miles or less...much less.