ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

039
ABNT20 KNHC 262358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE
HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FAY...LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 200
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

Shear still a problem but getting better.

[jaxfladude]

Please be a FISH STORM INVEST95L, Gustav will be taxing enough....
I thank you kindly

[cpdaman]

things are definitely "picking up" but boy all these storms appear to be in super sloooow mooo

[Stephanie]

not a good run for carolinas to new england

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... NA240.html

Close to the anniversary of Floyd, no less.

Still a long way out...

[CrazyC83]

not a good run for carolinas to new england

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... NA240.html

Close to the anniversary of Floyd, no less.

Still a long way out...

Also not too far from the 70th anniversary of the 1938 Great New England Hurricane...

[KWT]

I don't think development is all that likely for the next few days but I think once shear eases off we should see this system get going, no reason I see why this won't become something over the next 3-5 days.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...



THU-NEXT WED...FCST BASICALLY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...THE
ECMWF (SANS IT`S TC APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS BY DAYS 6-7) AND THE
OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST TRACK FOR GUSTAV. HAD TO DISCARD THE GFS AND
ITS SOLN WHICH BRINGS GUSTAV NORTH OF ERN CUBA AND THRU THE FL
KEYS/STRAITS.


SUN-WED...ON THE ONE HAND...THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF T.S GUSTAV MAKES
THE XTD RANGE UNCERTAIN TO BEGIN WITH - JUST HOW FAR WWD OR EWD OVER
THE GOMEX THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL HAVE SIGNIF IMPLICATION
FOR RAIN CHCS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PSBLY MAKING THE FCST HARDER STILL...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECM NOW SHOW SOME SORT OF LOW E/NE OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... EMANATING FROM AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WX N-NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. ECM HAS SHOWN THIS FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED TWD ITS SOLN...WHILE
STILL KEEPING ANY LOW PRES AREA WEAKER/FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE IT IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE ARE SEVERAL
REASONS TO GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST OVER ANY MODEL GUIDANCE.

GUSTAV NOTWITHSTANDING...OVER DAYS 5-8 THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
OVER THE WRN ATLC IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS A CUTOFF LOW IS FCST TO
FORM UP NEAR 40-45N/60-65W...DIP SOUTHWARD FOR A TIME...AND THEN
LIFT OUT. IN ADDITION...THERE ISN`T A LOW PRES CENTER TO REALLY
SPEAK OF YET. SO WHAT WE`RE LEFT WITH TO OUR WEST IS A POTENTIAL
MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GOMEX...WHILE TO THE EAST...A LOW THAT MAY
OR MAY NOT FORM...AND EVEN IF IT FORMS...MAY OR MAY NOT GET ANYWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. SO IT REMAINS BEST TO GO WITH PREV FCST WHICH SHOWS
FRESHENING EASTERLIES GRADUALLY DEVELOPING...EVENTUALLY INTO MORE OF
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHRA REGIME ALONG THE EAST COAST..WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURG THE LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING LATE AUG/SERLY SEP.



SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

AL, 95, 2008082706, , BEST, 0, 210N, 580W, 25, 1009

[Vortex]

Folks,

This system has much potential in a few days..The trends are for development and to place this system near the bahamas in about a week.

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

According to the run the Hurrakan posted in the other thread looks like it would be somewhere in the vicinity of Bermuda not the Bahamas.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102684&start=40

Also the same high which has Gustav moving slowly WNW should do the same for 95L.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 271149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR HAITI ABOUT 90 MILES WEST
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 95, 2008082712, , BEST, 0, 197N, 575W, 25, 1009, DB,

[Sirius LeWindy]

According to the run the Hurrakan posted in the other thread looks like it would be somewhere in the vicinity of Bermuda not the Bahamas.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102684&start=40

Also the same high which has Gustav moving slowly WNW should do the same for 95L.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082700!!/

and then into EFL.

[O Town]

Thats a scary run for alot of people, 2 major canes hitting the US with in week and another pretty big system in line waiting in the Atlantic. eeeek.

[gatorcane]

latest:

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like a WSW to W movement:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif