ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS still doesn't do much with 92L - closes off a 1012mb low east of the leewards on day 3 but then opens it up again.

Still much more bullish on the next two systems, especially the one immediately following 92L.

[AJC3]

Looks to me (yeah, me..."Joe conservative") like it's well on it's way to becoming a TD. The low level vort appears to be lagging behind the convection, however the structure appears to be improving pretty nicely. Looks like a rather vigorous MLC developing...note the debris canopy is starting to take on the shape of the number '6'.

[deltadog03]

Thanks Wxman.....Your right the incoming trof late next week/weekend looks stonger than 2004, but it also appears that the Ridge will be stronger this go around as well. Its WAAAAY too early to determine any effects on the US, but that setup is very erie similar.

[Cyclone1]

Looking more and more impressive.

[KWT]

This one really does need to be watched, unlike Dolly before it in this area its got convection and also very obvious circulation to it as well which really does heavily favor this becoming a tropical depression at least in the next 48hrs IMO.

[littlevince]

Impressive evolution I think

RGB Loop:

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is definitely going to be an interesting one to watch. Lots of pro met support, good satellite structure, fairly good model support, and a decent environment out ahead of it. Unless this pulls a 94L on us, I just do not see how this one would not develop.

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[KWT]

Yeah conditons are looking pretty decent for it, GFS progs shear in about 4 days time but take that with a pinch of salt clearly.

Think this is a real threat to PR, Hispaniola and maybe Cuba as well down the line, we shall see...

[lonelymike]

Wow, forgot how pretty Frances was out at sea, she wasn't pretty when she was pounding my town. So Wxman57, is the setup appear to be similar?

Here's a 500mb streamline forecast for next Sunday that sort of matches the position of Frances on the other link I posted. Setup is very similar. One significant difference is the much deeper trof over the eastern U.S. next weekend than there was when Frances was approaching.

Hey had a quick question. Katdaddy talked about w gulf nw guld east gulf. Can someone do what they mean by that. I mean is w gulf brownsville to houston etc. Thanks

[Recurve]

NRL GOES
12:15 EDT visible
25 knots
108N-413W



[img=http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/3950/1615goes92linvest108n41yn6.th.jpg]

[KWT]

Another factor is just how fast 92L decide to wind up. Given its fairly low latitude if it does take its time threat will obviously shift further west. It does look increasingly good have to admit!

[KatDaddy]

Below are my definitions. Not sure of the official areas but I would think I am close. Someone else will likely chime in with added info.

W GOM - Corpus Christi southward to Tuxpan, MX
NW GOM - North of Corpus to Vermillion Bay, LA
E GOM - Mobile down to Key West

[KWT]

I tend to think Florida north is probably at more risk than the gulf at this early stage but the Caribbean obviously has to watch this firstly given its current location makes it hard for the system to miss unless it starts to climb right away.

[AJC3]

Wow, forgot how pretty Frances was out at sea, she wasn't pretty when she was pounding my town. So Wxman57, is the setup appear to be similar?

Here's a 500mb streamline forecast for next Sunday that sort of matches the position of Frances on the other link I posted. Setup is very similar. One significant difference is the much deeper trof over the eastern U.S. next weekend than there was when Frances was approaching.

Hey had a quick question. Katdaddy talked about w gulf nw guld east gulf. Can someone do what they mean by that. I mean is w gulf brownsville to houston etc. Thanks

This is just a ball park non-SWAG....but it depends if you want to chop up the gulf W-E or W-C-E. The GOMEX runs roughly 15 degrees east-west (82.5 to 97.5), so if you're splitting it in half, then New Orleans/90W is your best break point. If you want to split it up 3 ways...I'd consider the coast south of Lafayette (92W) and somewhere around Mobile Bay/Pensacola (87.5/88W) as your break points.

It's pretty subjective.

[ronjon]

Well, forecasting 7-10 days out is always dicey so I'll take the plunge. Amazing agreement in the upper air pattern next 7-10 days by Euro and GFS. Both models show a pumped up 500 mb ridge over the eastern US-western Atlantic in this time frame due to a vigorous 500 mb cutoff low over Iowa (3-4 st dev below normal). If this pans out, look for a path for 92L from the N Leewards that skims the north coasts of PR, Hispanola, and Cuba. Perhaps even entering the FL straits. After that, both models show the 500 mb low over the midwest causing a weakness over the western and central GOM which might favor a northward movement in the eastern GOM. Of course this is all speculative - gonna depend on the strength of the ridge, how strong 92L gets, and any land interaction. The overall setup looks similar to Charlie 2004 more than Frances at this time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not certain of this, but potential 93L behind this may weaken the ridge behind such that troughs ahead are less likely to pull this all the way up. Not exactly Fujiwara, but I suspect the Fujiwara effect is produced by the mid level weakness produced by TCs.

This may track further South than GFS based modeling suggests.


Or, it may not.

"Too early to tell" seems the wisest course of action, and anyone from T&T to Puerto Rico and the US and British VIs should pay close attention to local media, local weather services, and the RMSC, ie, NHC.

['CaneFreak]

Pro-mets correct me if I am wrong, but I do believe that since the low level and mid level centers are decoupled at the present time that this system should struggle for at least the next 24 hours until these two features work in tandem with one another. I think that is a good point that needs to be made for the future of this system.

[littlevince]

From 15:00z

[KWT]

I think a decoupled center will just mean probably no rapid strengthening, more likely then being decoupled may just be tilted centers, I seem to recall Dolly had that as well for a time?

Models are keen to take this WNW/NW quite quickly which would suggest a NE Caribbean threat but I'm more inclined to say further west, esp given what we've seen so far with models having something of a right bias this summer thus far.