Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[KWT]

Hurakan I find it hard to believe looking at that image you've just put up that this isn't a tropical depression right now, its getting a pretty decent shape to it right now.

[wxman57]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/ATL/tc08/98L.INVEST/pacific/southern_hemisphere/vis/geo/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20080730.1145.goes12.x.vis1km_high.98LINVEST.xxxkts-xxxxmb-140N-179W.100pc.jpg

How much organized has it to be to be declared a TD?

LLC. check
Organized convection. check

That depends. Back in 1995 the NHC was so busy with 3-4 other named storms that they ignored such a system near the coast of Africa until it developed what they called "a cloud-free central region" (and eye!). Of course, they couldn't admit that the system went from a wave to a hurricane overnight, so they described it as a rapidly developing TS with that "cloud-free central area". Sometimes things must get very hectic over there at the NHC and they have to set priorities.

[Frank2]

wxman57,

Thanks for sharing that - it does seem the high is weaker than normal, per our frequent southerly winds across Florida, which is usually an indicator that the high is weak...

If that's true, then, that also means that the Fall cold fronts will be able to make more of an impact on the tropics...

That's why each season is unique - I know some don't like my giving "negative" opinions on hurricane formation, but, if there is a hurricane on the map, some here know that I usually step back and do not comment, since the system is already out there, but, outside of that, sometimes it's best to hear what is causing a slowing in activity, if little or no activity exists at the moment...

One great thing is the fact that I've met just about all of these well-known atmospheric scientists, and, if nothing else, it's good to know that they are not only scientists, but, have families and lives outside of the world of meteorology...

Frank

[Just Joshing You]

What storm would that be, WX?

[Sanibel]

Slight convection stripping, but large ITCZ band feeding in from the SW.

Ocean storm year?

[bob rulz]

Anybody think this will be upgraded at 11am despite the cautious wording so far?

The NHC has to be a little more bullish with this as it is still a threat to Cape Verde.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclone1]

Wow, looks great this morning, especially for being right off the coast.

[Honeyko]

Given THC's record of conservatism, I speculate there's a 5% chance this is upgraded to TD at 11am.

(Uh-oh: The jinx is in -- TWC's morning vacuous airhead just opined it'll head off into the open Atlantic and be no concern. ...GFS runs have it heading mostly due west. So, batten down the hatches, Puerto Rico. Yer gonna get mauled.)

[Air Force Met]

What storm would that be, WX?

I'm guessing Humberto...

[HURAKAN]

Given THC's record of conservatism, I speculate there's a 5% chance this is upgraded to TD at 11am.

(Uh-oh: The jinx is in -- TWC's morning vacuous airhead just opined it'll head off into the open Atlantic and be no concern. ...GFS runs have it heading mostly due west. So, batten down the hatches, Puerto Rico. Yer gonna get mauled.)

Most models, and climatology agree that after the CVI, it should remain over open waters.

[MiamiensisWx]

I suspect that the main impetus for the lack of an upgrade is the fact that the NHC typically waits for persistence of structural organization over a substantive period. This is particularly magnified with eastern Atlantic systems in similar positions to 98L, where convection can easily diminish by morning (after DMAX) and the system never "recovers" because of SAL and a more stable boundary layer (cooler SSTs). I don't think you can entirely fault them in this case.

Regardless, it will probably garner a TD classification if the current convection persists or additionak thunderstorms develop. A closed LLC is present.

[drezee]

What storm would that be, WX?

I'm guessing Humberto...

from the Humberto TPC:

A post-analysis of satellite images suggests that advisories on Humberto could have been initiated, perhaps, a few hours earlier. However, the location and intensity of incipient tropical systems on infrared images is uncertain. Unless surface observations are available, if a system is in a formative stage, the NHC often waits for the more accurate estimates obtained from visible imagery to initiate advisories.

[MiamiensisWx]

The low level subtropical ridging to the north is quite weak for this time of year. Recurvature (read: fish spinner) after the Cape Verde islands is essentially assured.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like this might be a season of the recurves....

[HURAKAN]

looks like this might be a season of the recurves....

Not enough "season" to be making a final assesment. That's like having a warm day in November and saying that the winter will be warm. We still have a lot more road to travel before everything is set in stone.

[x-y-no]

looks like this might be a season of the recurves....

Another 1995 maybe?

I could live with that.

[Derek Ortt]

however, most storms in 1995 affected land, just not the USA (though the USA did not get off easy with Erin, Marilyn, and Opal)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TD 2 (Bertha):



98L: