H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[tomboudreau]

I think it takes 24 hours to prep a plane to send out to a system. Thats probably way they didnt send it to 96L today.

[Skyhawk]

Flying a NW to SE leg they found a NE to SW wind shift. However winds are light.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some West winds, but no wind in any quadrant I've seen above 26 knots flight level. And it looks horribly unorganized on satellite.


It may get into more favorable conditions tomorrow and Saturday, but right now I don't think this is a depression. On the other hand, I'd say, unofficially, of course, that 96L is either a depression or an STD.

[pojo]

If I were king of the world I'd have the WC-130J fly a couple of passes through the Western Caribbean system on the way back to Keesler, if fuel would permit....

because of the location of 95L we catch out of STX.

[pojo]

I think it takes 24 hours to prep a plane to send out to a system. Thats probably way they didnt send it to 96L today.

its not 24 hours to prep a plane... it takes 16 hours to prep the crew and that's why we didn't go out today.... once the crew is prepped, then our maintainers will focus on the primary & spare aircraft for that mission... all other weather missions out of Keesler are dropped.

[cycloneye]

Where are they now? Any more west winds found?

[Thunder44]

Where are they now? Any more west winds found?

It looks like they are finding a broad circulation again. They haven't fixed a center yet.

[HURAKAN]

They are going around in circles. The good news for development is that pressures remain low and the system is producing convection.

[CrazyC83]

212630 1350N 06833W 9622 00425 0106 +179 +179 061016 018 049 050 00

49 kt SFMR - that can't be right...even though it isn't flagged...

[cycloneye]

49 kt SFMR

Hmmm,not flagged.

[Comanche]

212630 1350N 06833W 9622 00425 0106 +179 +179 061016 018 049 050 00

49 kt SFMR - that can't be right...even though it isn't flagged...

FWIW, here is a little snippet of JB's recent post-

"I am looking at the recon data and again the system in the Caribbean is a closed circulation with winds of 30-35 kts north of the center but up to 20 kts south of the center out of the west!. What is so hard about calling this what it is?"

[Thunder44]

213600 1425N 06833W 9626 00423 0101 +229 +210 069033 035 021 001 00
213630 1427N 06833W 9631 00416 0099 +229 +210 073034 034 020 000 03

34 -35kt FL Winds found.

[KWT]

Woah those are pretty impressive winds being found, may well have TS winds already based on what I've seen so far, now just to find a closed center.

[HenkL]

At the time of the 49 kt SFMR wind, there was a lot of precipitation (50 mm = 2 inch per hour).

[category5]

According to JB and based on recon data, NHC does have sufficient evidence to start advisories. However, only the NHC can make the call. We all must wait until they decide what to do.

Also, the NHC deserves a ton of credit. Many said recon shouldn't have even gone, and yet they had the foresight to know this could still develop.

[KWT]

The only thing we need is a vortex, if we do get one of those then thats proof of a closed low and we may well see this upgraded but still no word of that yet.

[CrazyC83]

Personally, I do agree that it is a tropical cyclone and would issue a special advisory for Tropical Depression Three (30 kt winds) at 7 pm, but it is not my call of course. I'd disregard the 49 kt SFMR for now as it might have been contaminated (kinda like the 163 kt recording from Felix last year).

[RL3AO]

Still looks like a broad circulation to me.

[Comanche]

please don't upgrade it until natural gas futures reopen at 5 pm!!!

[Innotech]

looking at it on satellite now it has really started to look like an actual storm.