WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[AJC3]

Fengshen appears to be playing 'Pong' within the Visayan Islands. It's eye made a pretty serious NNW-ward trochoidal wobble away from the north coast of Panay over the last 3-6 hours and is now approaching Romblon Province which includes Tablas Island to the northwest of the center, Romblon Island to the north, and Sibuyan Island to the northeast.

[爱我海坛]

JTWC:95KTS
CMA:40M/S

But HKO didn't agree other Agencies.

[KWT]

Well this system has become a serious beast, 95kts IMO is way too low given the Sat.imagery this is a solid 115kt type system IMO, maybe even a little higher so I'm not sure why they are only putting this at 95kts I've got to be honest!

Anyway still heading towards land, seems to be doing what Ivan did which is to divert away from land via serious of wobbles which is interesting.

Given the way the system is still trending westward makes you wonder whether this could eventually come close to Hong Kong, track would only have to adjust a little to the west for that to happen. Still expected to become an even stronger system then it is now once it gets away from the islands and into open waters.

[P.K.]

Reports from regional disaster coordinating offices in the Philippines say twelve people have been killed while 27 others are missing in provinces affected by typhoon Fengshen.

Regional officials in southern and central Philippines say most of those killed in the onslaught of the typhoon were due to drowning and at least three of them were children.

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/200806/s2281821.htm?tab=latest

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

JTWC is all over the place.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.6N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.4N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.5N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.0N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.2N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.2N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 121.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z,
220900Z AND 221500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

From Accuweather to you.

Simply, if you live from northern Vietnam to Taiwan, you should keep an eye on Fengshen.

[CrazyC83]

Isn't that an area prone to rapid deepening of storms as well?

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/

12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W HAS WEAKENED 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. ADDITIONALLY, STARTING AT 21/03Z, THE SYSTEM
SLOWED AND MADE AN ABRUPT TRACK CHANGE FROM A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TY 07W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 09 HOURS.

B. TY 07W APPEARS TO BE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SITUATED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH-
EAST. WHILE DIFFICULT TO FULLY ASSESS AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST 500MB
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS REMAINED
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF TY 07W WHILE THE NER HAS STRENGTHENED
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
MORE NORTHWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A 211036Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTING A DEFINED CENTER WITH DECAYING EYEWALL
CONVECTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12-HOUR TRACK MOTION
BASED ON AN EYE SIGNATURE THROUGH 21/06Z AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT ON THE 210824Z SSMI 85 GHZ
IMAGE WHICH ALSO COINCIDED WITH ALL THREE AGENCY POSITION FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING

A. THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. FIRST, THE TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED BACK
EAST BASED ON THE 12-HOUR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE TRANS-
ITION OF THE STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. SECOND,
DUE TO THE INCREASED SHORT-TERM LAND INTERACTION EXPECTED, THE
FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED.

B. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN DEPICTING HOW THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES CHANGE
THROUGH TAU 72. THE LACK OF GROUND-TRUTH DATA MAKES IT EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY. UPPER
AIR DATA DOES SHOW THAT THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TAIWAN HAS
WEAKENED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHERN LUZON HAVE
REMAINED STRONG AT 20-30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NER
HAS STRENGTHENED AND BUILT WESTWARD ALLOWING TY 07W TO TURN ONTO
A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. IN GENERAL THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING
STR BETWEEN TAU 24-36 AND A STRENGTHENING, AMPLIFYING NER. BASED
ON THE CONTINUED STRENGTH OF THE STR, TY 07W WILL LIKELY TRACK
WEST OF LUZON ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER
THIS TIME, MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS. THE PRIMARY SOLUTION IS BASED ON A WEAKENING STR
AND A BUILDING NER, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 07W TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STR
DOES NOT WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CHINA. DUE TO THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THUS FAR IN REGARDS TO
WEAKENING THE STR, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AFTER
TAU 36.

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-
WARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS AND THE
SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER A BUILDING NER TO ITS EAST. TY 07W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A WEAK TYPHOON
UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS EXTENDED FORECAST.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

[senorpepr]

Typhoon leaves 19 dead, 30,000 stranded in Philippines


ILOILO (AFP) - Flash floods and landslides triggered by Typhoon Fengshen left at least 19 people dead in the Philippines, while an overflowing dam stranded tens of thousands on rooftops, officials said Saturday.
ADVERTISEMENT

At least 30,000 people living in Iloilo in the central Philippines had scrambled onto rooftops fleeing the rushing water after the man-made dam overflowed, said the city's acting mayor Jed Mabilog.

Rescuers have reported that many could be missing or killed, though this could not be independently confirmed, he said.

"I have received a lot of text messages appealing for helicopters, there are many people trapped on the rooftops," Iloilo congressman Serg Biron told DZBB radio. "This is the worst flooding that has hit Iloilo in history."

Fengshen, upgraded from a tropical storm on Friday, swept through the country's center over the weekend, unleashing torrential rains, causing power outages and forcing the evacuations of hundreds of thousands of people.

Officials said earlier that flash floods and landslides triggered by the typhoon had left at least 19 people dead.

In the urban centres of Jaro and Iloilo, residents waded through waist-high waters that made roads impassable to vehicles.

The National Power Corporation was forced to shut down its power plant in the area, triggering a blackout across the province, plant manager Nelson Hemona said.

Roads connecting the southern cities of Cotabato and General Santos on Mindanao island were flooded, while a concrete bridge also collapsed, isolating some villages and towns, Catholic-run radio station DXMS reported.

The storm forced more than 200,000 people to seek temporary shelter in the eastern Bicol region, the civil defence office said.

Heavy rains battered the Bicol region overnight, and more than 600 people were stranded in various seaports there.

Fengshen also uprooted small trees, blew away tin roofs and caused power outages in the central Visayas provinces.

At 5:00 pm (0900 GMT) on Saturday, Fengshen was tracking northwest, packing winds of 195 kilometres an hour as it headed towards Mindoro province.

It was forecast to dump heavy rain over large swathes of the central Visayas region and parts of the main island of Luzon through Sunday, the weather bureau said.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes were warned about possible flash floods and landslides, while those in coastal areas were cautioned about big waves.

Officials said domestic flights to the central Philippines have been suspended, while inter-island ferry services were also halted.

Government agencies were instructed to stockpile relief goods and state-run hospitals were put on alert.

President Gloria Arroyo ordered a crackdown on profiteers and hoarders of basic commodities, especially rice, in areas hit hard by the typhoon.

In a statement late Saturday, shortly before she left on a 10-day visit to the United States, she said Agriculture Secretary, Arthur Yap, has been ordered to ensure stable rice supplies in affected areas.

"If Frank (the local name for Fengshen) will bring flood, Art (Arthur) will respond by flooding these areas with rice," she said.

"If they will exploit the situation, hoarders will soon find themselves in hot water," she said.

Arroyo met with the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) and she said the government would do everything it could to get relief to the affected areas.

[HURAKAN]

Very intense rainfall.

[senorpepr]

19/00Z-21/18Z rainfall totals in the Visayas...
(in inches)

Roxas 23.88
Iloilo 16.32
Guiuan 8.64
Tacloban 8.35
Coron 7.41
Borongan 6.03
Masbate 4.35
Maasin 4.15
Cuyo 4.05
Catbalogan 3.99
Catarman 3.83
Dumaguete 3.74
Romblon 3.72
Tagbilaran 3.24
San Jose 2.52

[HURAKAN]

Center very close to Manila.

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

Typhoon lashes Philippine coast

Flashfloods and landslides caused by Typhoon Fengshen have forced rivers to break their banks in the Philippines, destroying homes and leaving at least 17 people dead.



Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated from the worst-affected areas on Saturday as heavy rains from the typhoon lashed the archipelago.



Ten people drowned and five were missing after a river burst its banks in Maguindanao province.



In Cotabato City, a man and a child were buried in a landslide at a rubbish dump, police said, while five other people were drowned.

Thousands of residents in the city of Iloilo were left stranded on rooftops after a dam burst.

'Worst flooding'

"I have received a lot of text messages appealing for helicopters, there are many people trapped on the rooftops," Serg Biron, an Iloilo congressman, told DZBB radio.

"This is the worst flooding that has hit Iloilo in history."

The National Power Corporation was forced to shut down its power plant in the area, triggering a blackout across the province, Nelson Hemona, the plant's manager, said.

Fengshen, the sixth typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, tore up trees and power lines across wide swathes of the country. Flights were cancelled and ships kept in harbour.

The storm forced more than 200,000 people to seek temporary shelter in the eastern Bicol region, a civil defence office said.

Gloria Arroyo, the country's president, ordered clean-up and rescue operations before leaving for an eight-day trip to the United States.

Government agencies were instructed to stockpile relief goods and state-run hospitals were put on alert.

Arroyo also ordered a crackdown on profiteers and hoarders of basic commodities, especially rice, in areas hit hard by the typhoon.




Heavy rains have caused flashfloods as rivers and dams overflow [AFP]

[Aslkahuna]

Last obs I saw from Manila showed NW winds at 30G45 mph and a pressure of 992 hPa. With that wind direction it's probably quite windy along Roxas Blvd on the shore of Manila Bay where the American Embassy is located.

Steve

[senorpepr]

Some 22Z observations:




EDIT: Disregard. That observation out of Calapan was decoded by my program wrong. They did not report those winds. Here is that observation:

Calapan 98431 (AAXX 21181 98431 83207 10240 20229 49967 55000 60291;)
21/18Z
Winds are 320° at 14KT
Temperature is 24.0°C
Dewpoint is 22.9°C
Pressure is 996.7 hPa; pressure steady
Total precipitation over the past 24 hours is 29mm or 1.14"

[CrazyC83]

My guess for its landfall intensity: 105 kt/945mb.