Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the latest Visible I would say that a LLC is forming near 17.1 north/88.2 west. Near land as Derek says. I believe with the convection forming and the banding setting up, that if this had another 6-8 hours; this would be a depression. A well "Organized system" at the mid levels I would say. But it will not have the time to become anything more as Derek says, and I don't disagree. For one the Hurricane models show this system heading more westward, and if they are right then this thing is dead already. If some how this go's more northward it will have to start over again once in the BOC.

I disagree with the both of you, by watching at IR2 loop, it still looks like is offshore, moving very very little WNW or NW.

Personally I believe 80 percent of the LLC is still over water, but it won't take much shift westward to put it over land. It could move a little more northward which would increase the chances of development in the BOC. But its a wait in see...Which is a wise choice to follow.

[wxman57]

looks like the developing center is starting to move back onshore

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I also am starting to think this has a good chance at doing something in the BOC... if it makes it there

I agree, the southern BoC is its only shot, and that's not a good one. Just about zero chance of anything forming in the western Caribbean. It's moving inland already. That blob nearing the isthmus of Mexico looks impressive, but it's over land.

[GeneratorPower]

Here is my personal take on this system:

It is going to do what it wants to do.

Utterly profound.

[GeneratorPower]

Quit ripping on the LBAR. It got it right once last year.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

[NDG]

looks like the developing center is starting to move back onshore

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I also am starting to think this has a good chance at doing something in the BOC... if it makes it there

I agree, the southern BoC is its only shot, and that's not a good one. Just about zero chance of anything forming in the western Caribbean. It's moving inland already. That blob nearing the isthmus of Mexico looks impressive, but it's over land.

What you guys think of the UL environment how well it looks for this time of the year?

[vaffie]

Wind gusts up to 36mph at the nearest buoy. Might still make it to tropical depression strength before coming onshore.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Derek Ortt]

environment looks typical for being underneath an UH

overall, the shear is a little weaker than normal

[wxman57]

Wind gusts up to 36mph at the nearest buoy. Might still make it to tropical depression strength before coming onshore.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

That's not representative of any circulation, it's just wind beneath that thunderstorm cluster. Winds out from beneath the storm are 10-15 kts offshore Belize. What LLC there was is moving inland now (or is inland already). No chance of development in western Caribbean.

[Chacor]

EPac TWD:

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND S MEXICO/YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA AND A
TROPICAL WAVE. THESE FEATURES CONSOLIDATED INTO A 1005 MB LOW
PRES SYSTEM CENTERED JUST E OF BELIZE. WHILE DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO LAND...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS FROM HONDURAS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 42 Hours It has the low in the extreme southern part of the BOC.

00z GFS at 60 Hours Low is inland in Mexico.

00z GFS at 168 Hours Another low forms and is at the NE tip of Yucatan.

00z GFS at 204 Hours Look what happens at this timeframe.End of drought and fire dangers in Florida Peninsula?

[dixiebreeze]

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.8W TOO WEAK 90L

[tailgater]

Wind gusts up to 36mph at the nearest buoy. Might still make it to tropical depression strength before coming onshore.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

That's not representative of any circulation, it's just wind beneath that thunderstorm cluster. Winds out from beneath the storm are 10-15 kts offshore Belize. What LLC there was is moving inland now (or is inland already). No chance of development in western Caribbean.

I don't see how anyone can tell if there is a real LLC, or which way it's moving, with at best, scattered surface obs and IR sat. The winds at that buoy have fairly strong for the last 4 hrs.

[wxman57]

I don't see how anyone can tell if there is a real LLC, or which way it's moving, with at best, scattered surface obs and IR sat. The winds at that buoy have fairly strong for the last 4 hrs.

You certainly can't tell easily with satellite. I plotted surface obs to find the broad, weak low earlier today. It's not as well-defined now, but what's left of it is now inland.

[NDG]

Whoa, 44kts winds under the convection NE of Belize recently reported by a ship along with 10' waves.

SHIP S 0300 18.80 -86.10 168 358 100 44.1 - 9.8 1.0 - - 29.80 +0.06 78.8 80.6 - 6.2

[tailgater]

Whoa, 44kts winds under the convection NE of Belize recently reported by a ship along with 10' waves.

SHIP S 0300 18.80 -86.10 168 358 100 44.1 - 9.8 1.0 - - 29.80 +0.06 78.8 80.6 - 6.2

If that's a good report then this little booger is getting trying to get our attention.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
on this loop it looks like the lower clouds over Belize are moving north to south, but I realize it's colored IR

[NDG]

Whoa, 44kts winds under the convection NE of Belize recently reported by a ship along with 10' waves.

SHIP S 0300 18.80 -86.10 168 358 100 44.1 - 9.8 1.0 - - 29.80 +0.06 78.8 80.6 - 6.2

If that's a good report then this little booger is getting trying to get our attention.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
on this loop it looks like the lower clouds over Belize are moving north to south, but I realize it's colored IR

Yeah, I was looking at that as well, that is why I would not be surprised if the LLC or most of circulation center is still offshore, barely. I wish that there were some reports from Belize, but they stopped reporting since early in the evening.

[Recurve]

nothin is developing out of some widely scattered convection in the Wcaribb.
There will be no "center."
Listen to the obs. 10-15 knots winds outside thunderstorms.
This thing is a rainmaker for Mexico at best.

I wish that high weren't squashing the moisture down to Cuba. Another 100 miles north or so and we'd have some nice rain over SFla

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing has a very nice sphere of outflow around it. Meaning very favorable upper level envirnoment to work with, so if it was not for the Yuctan I would be going nuts with this system. Based on latest satellite I would say the center is about half way on the coast near 17.2 north/88.4 west, but convection appears to be forming over it big time. I would not be suprized if this had a "LLC" or was very close to be closing one off as its moving onshore...But it won't have a chance now.

As it moves over the Yuctan, that will take 24+ hours it won't have much lefted/

[NDG]

8-9' waves are not created by 10-15 knot winds.
And guess what, in weak systems, the strongest winds are found near convection.

Winds gusting to 33 mph, with a temp of 81 deg F, it is not from convective outflows.

Conditions at 42056 as of
0450 GMT on 05/31/2008

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 147 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.1 °F

[Recurve]

Wasn't the GFS at 200 hours showing that a week ago? It would be great to get a low and a slug of tropical moisture over Florida without a storm hitting us.